LABORATORY FOR MARITIME TRANSPORT SCHOOL OF NAVAL ARCHITECTURE AND MARINE ENGINEERING NATIONAL TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF ATHENS Nikolaos P. Ventikos Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships MASSEP 2013, Athens, 30 & 31 May, 2013

“Probabilistic Framework for Onboard Safety” (FIREPROOF) The work presented herein was partially supported by the EC-funded project “Probabilistic Framework for Onboard Safety” (FIREPROOF), SCP7-GA , coordinated by the University of Strathclyde, Department of Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering – The Ship Stability Research Centre (SSRC) Acknowledgments Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships of Ms. M. PetsouMr. G. Papamichalis I would like to thank and acknowledge the substantial role of Ms. M. Petsou and Mr. G. Papamichalis (they are both naval architects and marine engineers from NTUA) in the development and conclusion of this high level statistical analysis of fire/ignition events onboard passenger/cruise vessels

The Set-Up of the Presentation Sections Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6 Objectives of the Research Literature Review (indicative) Methodology: Database and Elements Results (from multi level analysis) Discussion (Instead of ) Conclusions Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships

Objectives of the Research Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships Section 1

maritime fire accidents Compilation of a comprehensive database on maritime fire accidents The database would help identify statistical data on some significant aspects that would serve to provide priori probabilities for the ignition models maritime fire accidents Compilation of a comprehensive database on maritime fire accidents The database would help identify statistical data on some significant aspects that would serve to provide priori probabilities for the ignition models Objectives of the Research Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships fire scenarios probability of incidence Develop a method for generating fire scenarios according to their probability of incidence Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6

Literature Review Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships Section 2

Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships Literature Review Indicative List of Relative Publications Da Veiga et al. (1999) Darbra & Casal (2004) Vlaun et al. (2001) Ventikos et al. (2007) Gruarin et al. (2007) Nikolaou & Spyrou (2010) Oikonomou & Ventikos (2010) Themelis et al. (2011) Soares & Texeira (2001) Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6 Mendiola et al. (2010) Hakkarainen et al. (2009) Galea et al. (2012)

Methodology: Database and Elements Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships Section 3

Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships Methodology: Database and Elements DB Identity and Fields Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6 Incident Date and Time Location of the vessel Weather Contribution SOLAS Cat.Onboard Location + SOLAS Cat. Detection Adjacent Detector Activated Suppression means Time to detect (mins) Time to extinguish (mins) Ventilation status Fire Door status Space Occupied Crew Presence Boundary Cooling status Human Factor Contribution Emergency Response Failure Containment Failure Ignition in Adjacent Spaces Severity Source Ignition Ignitions and Fires on cruise and passenger ships – period: 2003–2010 – with 1521 records (provided by operators)

Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships Methodology: Database and Elements SOLAS Space Categories Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6 The 14 spaces defined by SOLAS were adopted so that every further proposition for fire safety regulation could be easily adapted with minimum confusion

Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships Methodology: Database and Elements Why is this Database Interesting? Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6 Ignitions and Fires on cruise and passenger ships period: 2003–2010 with 1521 records (provided by operators) Fires&Explosions for any type of passenger vessel (incl. cruise ships) period: 1999–2009 with 63 records (provided by a commercial database)UNDERRPORTING!!

Results (from statistical analysis) Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships Section 4

Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships Results Distribution of Records per SOLAS Space Category Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6

Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships Results Distribution of whether the Fire was Detected or not Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6

Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships Results Distribution of Records per Ignition Source Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6

Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships Results Distribution of Records per Severity Category Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6

Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships Results Activation or not of the Detector of an Adjacent Space Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6

Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships Results Analysis of Ignition Sources for Fires on Passenger Ships Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6 Ignition Sources n%P-value Electrical Hot surface / Electrical other than static charges0.039 Cigarettes Hot surface Burning/Welding/ Cutting / Cigarettes, Matches etc Spontaneous Combustion

Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships Results Frequency Rates for Fires (all vs. severe events) Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6 Average Frequency / ship-year3.284 Average fleet size / year125 Expected number of events / year Average Frequency / ship-year4x10 -3 Average fleet size / year125 Expected number of events / year5.4x10 -1

Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships Results Frequency Rate per SOLAS Space Category (all fires) Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6 SOLAS SPACE CATEGORY SOLAS Space Category No5 SOLAS Space Category No7 SOLAS Space Category No8 SOLAS Space Category No9 SOLAS Space Category No12 SOLAS Space Category No13 Number of Fire Incidents (all incidents) for each SOLAS space category Average Frequency / ship-year 1.6x x x x x10 -1

Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships Results Time Evolution of Frequency Rates per Ignition Source Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6

Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships Results Tests for Statistical Significance Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6

DiscussionDiscussion Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships Section 5

Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships Discussion Frequency Rates for Fires (commercial vs. developed dbs ) Fleet at risk (ship-years)40,707 Average Frequency / ship-year (serious)0.001 Average Frequency / ship-year (total losses) Average Frequency / ship-year (severe)4x10 -3 Average Frequency / ship-year (significant+severe)0.030 Average Frequency / ship-year (all records)3.284 Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6

Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships Discussion Frequency Rate for FX (SURSHIP-FIRE vs. developed dbs ) Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6

(Instead of) Conclusions Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships Section 6

Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships (Instead of) Conclusions UNDERREPORTING Ignitions and Fires on cruise and passenger ships period: 2003–2010 with 1521 records (provided by operators) Fires&Explosions for any type of passenger vessel (incl. cruise ships) period: 1999–2009 with 63 records (provided by a commercial database) This might be a problem for all types of marine accidents ; however it is mainly recorded in the case of fires Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6

Nikolaos P. Ventikos LABORATORY FOR MARITIME TRANSPORT SCHOOL OF NAVAL ARCHITECTURE AND MARINE ENGINEERING NATIONAL TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF ATHENS Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOUR ATTENTION