Communicating Research Findings More Effectively: The Potential for Conflict Index Jerry J. Vaske Colorado State University Human Dimensions of Natural Resources Fort Collins, CO 80523

Overview of Presentation Introduce Potential for Conflict Index (PCI 1 ) Describe enhancements in 2 nd generation of PCI 2 Provide a partial validation of PCI 2 Demonstrate the PCI 2 menu system

Goal – Challenge – Solution Goal of Human Dimensions / Recreation research Conceptualize, measure and interpret variables and their relationships in a way that bears meaning on problems of managerial or scientific interest Challenge Effectively communicating the meaning of abstract statistics (e.g., standard deviation, standard error) for measuring consensus Solution – Potential for Conflict Index (PCI) Manfredo, Vaske, & Teel, 2003 Vaske et al., 2006; Vaske et al., 2010

Potential for Conflict Index (PCI) Integrates into one measure information about: –Central tendency –Dispersion –Shape of a distribution Uses graphic display: Easy interpretation Places findings in managerial context (e.g., the acceptability of a given mgmt. action)

PCI 1 Measurement Requirements Response scale Highly Unacceptable Moderately Unacceptable Slightly Unacceptable NeutralSlightly Acceptable Moderately Acceptable Highly Acceptable Balanced scale with equal number of response options on either side of “Neutral” point Number of response options can be 3, 5, 7, or 9 (typical to have 5 or 7 response options) Numerical ratings must be assigned with center point given value of 0

PCI Assumptions Greatest potential conflict (PCI = 1) occurs with bimodal distribution: –50% rate mgmt. action as “Highly Unacceptable” –50% rate mgmt. action as “Highly Acceptable” –0% are “Neutral” No conflict (PCI = 0) occurs when: –100% rate mgmt. action in a single category (e.g., 100% “Highly Unacceptable” OR 100% “Highly Acceptable”) Index range: 0 (no conflict – most consensus) to 1 (most conflict – least consensus)

Previous Applications of PCI Yellowstone wolf mgmt. (ID & WY) Desert tortoise mgmt. (CA) Chronic wasting disease (8 states) Off leash dogs urban parks (CO) Wildlife values (19 states) Wildland fire management (3 states) Instream flows in Hell’s Canyon (ID) Scuba divers / snorkelers (FL) Summer use – Whistler ski area (BC)

Different Species & Severity Human-Wildlife Interactions Jerry J. Vaske 1 Mark D. Needham 2 Lori B. Shelby 1 Caroline Hummer 1 1 Colorado State University 2 Oregon State University Paper presented at International Union of Game Biologists XXVIII Congress, Uppsala, Sweden, 2007

Survey scenarios manipulated 3species:Raccoons, Bears, Mountain Lions 3 levels – Severity of human-wildlife interaction:Presence, Nuisance, Kills human Management Action Highly Unacceptable Unacceptable Somewhat UnacceptableNeither Somewhat AcceptableAcceptable Highly Acceptable Monitor the situation Frighten the bear away Capture and relocate the bear Destroy the bear Example scenario: A person encounters a black bear in their neighborhood. The bear charges and mauls the person, resulting in the person’s death. Given this scenario, how unacceptable or acceptable would it be for wildlife agencies to take each of the following actions.

Traditional Display Descriptive Statistics – Acceptability of Destroy Animal MeanStd ErrorStd. Dev.VarianceSkewnessKurtosis Raccoon roaming neighborhood Raccoon pest Raccoon kills humans Bear roaming neighborhood Bear pest Bear kills human Mt Lion roaming neighborhood Mt Lion pest Mt Lion kills human

Acceptability of Destroying Animal Highly Acceptable Neither Highly Unacceptable Raccoon Presence Nuisance Kills Human Bear Mountain Lion Larger bubbles reflect more potential for conflict

Other Applications of PCI

Very Acceptable Neutral Very Unacceptable Acceptability Level of Flow (CFS): Acceptability of Instream Flows

Chronic Wasting Disease Management Highly Acceptable Neither Highly Unacceptable.05 Continue to test deer / elk for CWD.12 No action – allow CWD to take its natural course.62 Use trained agency staff to dramatically reduce herds in affected zones Use hunters to drama- tically reduce herds in affected zones.26 Action Acceptability

Highly Acceptable Neither Highly Unacceptable Action Acceptability Injures Person Kills Person Kills Pet Seen in Area Acceptability of Destroying Lion by Attitude Negative Attitude Positive Attitude Neutral Attitude

Take away permit for year Take away permit for 15 days Give a fine Do nothing Sanctions Fishing in No-take zone Illegal fishing methods Off-season Sea cucumber harvest Off-season lobster harvest Shark harvest Fishing Violations Norms for Fishing Violations in the Galapagos Santa CruzIsabela

Take away permit for year Take away permit for 15 days Give a fine Do nothing Sanctions Fishing in No-take zone Illegal fishing methods Off-season Sea cucumber harvest Off-season lobster harvest Shark harvest Fishing Violations Norms for Fishing Violations in the Galapagos Santa CruzIsabela

Par or lower Above Par Satisfaction with Golfing by Score Delighted Pleased Mostly Satisfied Mixed Mostly Dissatisfied Unhappy Terrible Own Performance Course Condition Pace of Play

Par or lower Above Par Satisfaction with Golfing by Score Delighted Pleased Mostly Satisfied Mixed Mostly Dissatisfied Unhappy Terrible Own Performance Course Condition Pace of Play

Satisfaction with Occupation Therapy Treatments Care givers Patients Extremely Satisfied Unsure Extremely Dissatisfied In-patient Out-patient In-home

Satisfaction with Occupation Therapy Treatments Care givers Patients Extremely Satisfied Unsure Extremely Dissatisfied In-patient Out-patient In-home

Satisfaction with Occupation Therapy Treatments Care givers Patients Extremely Satisfied Unsure Extremely Dissatisfied In-patient Out-patient In-home

Enhancements in PCI 2 Generates statistic from SPSS, SAS, Excel & PHP A simulation generates M & SD (default n = 400) (SD allows test of differences between PCI values) Allows for: –different scale widths (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9) –unipolar & bipolar scales (with or without neutral value) –different power functions (i.e., 1, 2 or any power > 0) –different distance functions (D1, D2, D3)

PCI 2 – Distance Based Formula Consider person (x) response relative to person (y) Responses = r x and r y Distance between people d x,y = f(r x, r y ) Different ways to define distance: d x,y = |r x – r y | Issue: People at –3 & –2 not really in conflict; differ only in degree to which views are held Alternative distance formulations Highly Unacceptable Moderately Unacceptable Slightly Unacceptable NeutralSlightly Acceptable Moderately Acceptable Highly Acceptable

PCI 2 – Alternative Distance Functions D1d x,y = (|r x – r y | – 1) If sign(r x ) ≠ sign(r y );(e.g., r x = –3 & r y = +1) otherwise d x,y = 0  Neutral is not considered in determining distance (D1: –3 to 1 is 3) D2d x,y = |r x – r y | If sign(r x ) ≠ sign(r y ); otherwise d x,y = 0  Neutral is considered in determining distance (D2: –3 to 1 is 4) Highly Unacceptable Moderately Unacceptable Slightly Unacceptable NeutralSlightly Acceptable Moderately Acceptable Highly Acceptable

PCI 2 Formula where: n k = number of respondents for each scale value n h = number of respondents at other scale values d k,h = distances between respondents δ max = maximum distance between extreme values * number of times this distance occurs

PCI 2 in Excel 5-point scale # of respondents at:Value Total sample200 Total distance Maximum distance PCI

Current Recommended Settings: PCI 2 Distance:D1 Power: P1: Power = 1 Scale width:5 or 7 points Recommendations subject to further testing and validation using actual & simulation data

Toward a Validation of PCI 2

PCI 2 – General Validation Meets boundary conditions (i.e., PCI = 0 and / or 1 when it should) Simulated values for a distribution are approximately normally distributed (i.e., usual tests for differences can be used) Bias is small relative to standard deviation in a PCI estimated for a survey

PCI 2 & Sample Size 7-point scale point scale Each estimated mean based on 1000 simulated samples Sample Size PCI Value

PCI – Conclusions PCI offers an intuitive approach to summarizing statistical results Based on past experiences, managers understand PCI results Computing PCI & graphical display is straightforward PCI 2 allows for multiple analytical options & experimentation capabilities

PCI – Future Research Continue validation Further examination of scale width issues Link PCI to practical significance indicators (e.g., effect sizes, Van der Eijk’s measure of agreement) Apply PCI to more human dimensions issues Develop standards for interpreting PCI values

Questions PCI 2 SPSS, Excel, PHP, PowerPoint programs available at: h ttp://welcome.warnercnr.colostate.edu/~jerryv/