SMALL BUSINESS UPDATE Matthew James Thursday, 19 th May 2005

Objectives for the Presentation > Small Business Trends > Small Business Performance > Entrepreneurship in the UK > Spotlight on Female Entrepreneurs > Population Growth & Ethnic Groups

SMALL BUSINESS TRENDS

Recent Trends: Starts During 2004, London & South East continue to lead the way in business starts Source: Barclays ‘Starts & Closures’, 2004 (000’s - estimates based on business accounts)

Recent Trends: Starts (2) Rise in starts across the Capital during 2004, Though down slightly across the South East Source: Barclays ‘Starts & Closures’, 2004 (estimates based on business accounts)

Recent Trends: Closures Source: Barclays ‘Starts & Closures’, 2003/4 (estimates based on business accounts) At a UK level, mainstream business closures are on the rise… …BUT, still outnumbered by starts

Bankruptcies form a small part of registered stock; Typically less than 10% of all business closures Source: Depart of Trade and Industry, 2005 Bankruptcies & Closures

London has highest business start and closure rate in the UK Source: LDA ‘Economic Development Strategy’ Starts & Closures in the UK

Effect on UK Business Stock 2003 – APPROACHING 4.0m BUSINESS ENTERPRISES IN THE UK First significant rise in business stock for some time Source: SBS, ‘Small Business Statistics’ = 3.945m

Employee Growth Growth in business stock, BUT not in businesses with employees No. with no employees up on previous year (240,000) No. with employees down slightly on previous year (10,000)

SMALL BUSINESS PERFORMANCE

Business Survival Rates About two thirds still trading 3 years after registration London lower than South East & UK average BUT more starts and more closures = CHURN Source: SBS SME Statistics, 2003

SME Performance: Current Change Q4 03/Q4 04 Up Down Same Balance Sales Turnover 47% 28%28% 23% +19 Average Employment 18% 12%12% 67% +6+6 Investment 23% 15% 59% +8 Selling Prices 37% 10% 50% +27 Sales performance of Britain’s small firms = Performance of the Workspace Group market place Source: SERT, ‘Quarterly Survey of Small Businesses in Britain’, Q1 2005

SME Performance: London & SE …BUT London only area in UK to where more small firms cut the numbers they employ London and SE show good sales performance… Source: SERT, ‘Quarterly Survey of Small Businesses in Britain’, Q1 2005

SME Performance: Sectors Balance reporting an increase in sales over last 12 months Source: SERT, ‘Quarterly Survey of Small Businesses in Britain’, Q1 2005

SME Performance: Prospects Anticipated change over Q Change Q4 04/Q1 05 Up Down Same Balance Sales Turnover 42% 25%25% 32% +16 Average Employment 15% 8%8% 75% +7+7 Investment 18% 15% 65% +3 Selling Prices 29% 7%7% 60% +22 Confidence about sales translated into overall increases in selling prices Source: SERT, ‘Quarterly Survey of Small Businesses in Britain’, Q1 2005

SME Problems & Issues Government regulations & paperwork seen as biggest concern - as it has been for last 18 months Source: SERT, ‘Quarterly Survey of Small Businesses in Britain’, Q1 2005

ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN THE UK

How Entrepreneurial is the UK? Based on ‘Total Entrepreneurial Activity’, UK is ahead of Germany & France but behind the USA 2004 GLOBAL AVERAGE = 9.3 Source: GEM, 2004

TEA in the UK: A regional Picture Source: GEM, 2004 London & SE lead the UK in TEA… … and both have seen significant increases over last 2 years

Expect to start a business UK: 9.5% of working age population expect to start a business in next 3 years – US, Germany, Japan all down Source: GEM, 2004

SPOTLIGHT ON FEMALE ENTREPRENEURS

Women: The Facts 25% of the UKs 3.2m self-employed workers are now women 30% of business owners are women The highest number of female startups are based in London, where 8.4% of the female workforce are self-employed Source: Labour Force Survey, 2003 BUT… Men are still twice as likely to start a business as women Source: GEM, 2004

Characteristics of Female Entrepreneurship Businesses started by women use less capital than those started by men Women tend to have slower early growth trajectories – stronger ties and egalitarian coalitions Women tend to start businesses with known technology and in established markets – less innovative? Women’s businesses tend to be smaller and less expensive than those of men Source: GEM, ‘Report on Women & Entrepreneurship’ 2004

Attitudes to Entrepreneurship Women showing improvement but still behind men on key start-up indicators Source: GEM, ‘Report on Women & Entrepreneurship’ 2004

Women: Trends Lower expectations – expect growth of two-fifths over 3 year period compared to men who expect to double Over 5 year period from start-up, women expect to create 2 new jobs; men expect to create at least 5 “Women have lower expectations of what they can achieve and this translates into lower expectations of job creation and turnover growth” Source: GEM, ‘Report on Women & Entrepreneurship’ 2004

POPULATION GROWTH & ETHNIC GROUPS

Growth in London outpacing the UK… Source: LDA ‘Economic Development Strategy’ UK Annual Population Growth …GLA forecasts a rise of 711,000 by 2016

Strong increase in London population growth between Source: LDA ‘Economic Development Strategy’ Population Growth by UK Region

Net international migration in London accounts for growth of about 100,000 pa Source: ONS ‘London: Region in Figures’ Accounting for Growth

Source: Dept for Work & Pensions ‘Migrants in the UK’ Stock of working age foreign-born population, by country of birth = c3.6m, about 10% of total working age population Who are the Immigrants?

Of current UK working population, 3.6m are foreign born (10%) Tend to be ‘…very heavily concentrated in London and the South East’ And ‘…of working age, concentrated between 25 and 49’ (table below). Source: Dept for Work & Pensions ‘Migrants in the UK’ Effect on Working Population

Ethnic Groups Source: GEM, ‘Report on Women & Entrepreneurship’ 2004 TEA by Ethnicity Almost without exception, ethnic groups are more entrepreneurial than the white population

TEA Amongst Ethnic Groups Ethnic Groups are characterised by expectation of starting business and belief in their skills to do so Source: GEM, ‘Report on Women & Entrepreneurship’ 2004

“Ethnic minority people tend to have more positive attitudes towards entrepreneurship and better self perception of their capacity to establish a business” Types of business Whites or mixed race are most likely to be involved in start-up activity involving a technology not available a year ago Black Caribbean most likely to be starting up a business that provides a good or service that is new to all customers Indian businesses are least likely of all ethnic groups to be export oriented – 87.5% said that they have no overseas customers Source: GEM, 2004

Conclusions > Starts outnumber closures = increase in population > Improving performance & confident forecast > Entrepreneurship in the UK at good level > Impact of rising female starts & optimism? > Impact of growth in population & net migration?