MP-SOFI-SD Project A Full-Scale Implementation of SOFI AC/UNU Millennium Project, Silicon Valley Node Peter P. Yim (v 3.01) WorldFuture 2003 – the Annual Conference of the World Future Society San Francisco, CA, USA. (July 19, 2003) Futures Research Around the World - Part 1

Outline The MissionThe Mission MP-SOFI-SD Project PhasesMP-SOFI-SD Project Phases Core Concepts and ValuesCore Concepts and Values A Look at the SystemA Look at the System Who are the usersWho are the users What can one do with itWhat can one do with it Looking at the Big PictureLooking at the Big Picture

Mission To build on the previous research of the Millennium Project, including the spreadsheet model, algorithm and collection of data, and progressively develop it into an Internet based futures study and analysis tool supported over an open knowledge system.To build on the previous research of the Millennium Project, including the spreadsheet model, algorithm and collection of data, and progressively develop it into an Internet based futures study and analysis tool supported over an open knowledge system.

MP-SOFI-SD Project Phases Phase 0: Strategizing, planning, staging & requirements gathering.Phase 0: Strategizing, planning, staging & requirements gathering. Phase 1: Initial software tool implementation and the launch of a community of practice around SOFI.Phase 1: Initial software tool implementation and the launch of a community of practice around SOFI. Subsequent Phases: Continuous development and improvement of the SOFI system, content and knowledge through the collaboration of open communities that are augmented by the Internet and other technologies.Subsequent Phases: Continuous development and improvement of the SOFI system, content and knowledge through the collaboration of open communities that are augmented by the Internet and other technologies.

Core Concepts & Values driving this work The SOFI MethodologyThe SOFI Methodology The "Bootstrap" ParadigmThe "Bootstrap" Paradigm Serving a wide variety of applicationsServing a wide variety of applications Collaboration among participants and stakeholders in the form of virtual communitiesCollaboration among participants and stakeholders in the form of virtual communities The notion of "Openness"The notion of "Openness"

The System (1/3) – Design Criteria InteroperabilityInteroperability OpennessOpenness Standards ComplianceStandards Compliance Enterprise-class RobustnessEnterprise-class Robustness ScalabilityScalability ReliabilityReliability SecuritySecurity

Architecture

The User Interface

The Users (1) – SOFI Developers Global, national, regional, NGO and corporate policymakersGlobal, national, regional, NGO and corporate policymakers Professionals, scholars, academicsProfessionals, scholars, academics Economists, political scientists, social scientists, etc., andEconomists, political scientists, social scientists, etc., and The Millennium Project and its NodesThe Millennium Project and its Nodes

The Classes of Users (2) General publicGeneral public Researchers, journalists, trend watchersResearchers, journalists, trend watchers Policy makers (government, NGO, corporate, …)Policy makers (government, NGO, corporate, …) SOFI developers, modelers, futures researchersSOFI developers, modelers, futures researchers Data owners (those who own and maintain databases whose data is used to construct the SOFIs)Data owners (those who own and maintain databases whose data is used to construct the SOFIs) System developers (those who will contribute to the software)System developers (those who will contribute to the software) System Administrators (those who administer the SOFI system)System Administrators (those who administer the SOFI system)

What can we do on the System? Viewing/reading upViewing/reading up ComparisonsComparisons Drill-downs and searches on related informationDrill-downs and searches on related information Asking what-if questions by “tweaking” the SOFI parameters, or exercising alternate ScenariosAsking what-if questions by “tweaking” the SOFI parameters, or exercising alternate Scenarios Developing new SOFI'sDeveloping new SOFI's oSOFI’s for different Countries, Regions, Municipalities, … etc. (e.g. a USA-SOFI, France- SOFI, Russia-SOFI, China-SOFI; or a EU-SOFI, Middle-East SOFI, Greater-China SOFI, Latin-America SOFI; … etc.) oSOFIs for different government or industrial sectors (e.g. E-Government SOFI; Petroleum and Oil industry SOFI; Automotive Industry SOFI; Aerospace industry SOFI; Science & Technology SOFI; Nanotechnology SOFI; Tertiary Education SOFI; … etc.) oSOFI for Corporations; individual Organizations; Programs, Initiatives or Product Lines; …etc. Collaboration and Collaborative DevelopmentCollaboration and Collaborative Development Interaction and accessing data, information and knowledgeInteraction and accessing data, information and knowledge oHuman-to-machine oHuman-to-human oMachine-to-machine Building up the system’s database and knowledgebaseBuilding up the system’s database and knowledgebase

The Big Picture (1) this was not simply a software to calculate an index, but a framework for people to systematically think together o oabout what is important to the future, o ohow to measure it, o owhat is the best bang for the buck to get the whole index up, alternatives to the approaches systematically vetted, generation of an improvement community to make better SOFIs, method to keep all this organized, allowing for group and private use, on the web and stand alone, … etc.

The Big Picture (2) it's not just software, but rather, it is about the co- evolution of tool systems and human systems this is not even about technology, but about how people can handle change and ever increasing complexities in the world we live in – improving our ability to systematically measure, analyze, manage, be ready, be responsiveness, and be able to make informed decisions and cope with the ever more urgent and complex “challenges” We are creating the environment for distributed collaborative development and innovation We have building an infrastructure to harness collective intelligence expecting emergent patterns and behaviors

References The Chapters (Ch. 22 & Ch. 23) on SOFI and its Full Implementation on “Futures Research Methodology v2.0”The Chapters (Ch. 22 & Ch. 23) on SOFI and its Full Implementation on “Futures Research Methodology v2.0”Futures Research Methodology v2.0Futures Research Methodology v2.0 Copy of this presentation is available at:Copy of this presentation is available at: sd/presentation/mp-sofi-sd-P3.htm sd/presentation/mp-sofi-sd-P3.htm [MP-SOFI-SD] Project Documents are accessible from:[MP-SOFI-SD] Project Documents are accessible from: sd/home.htmlhttp://mp.cim3.net/file/project/mp-sofi- sd/home.html

Q & A and Discussion