11th European Space Weather Week Dr. Alejandro Salado et al. 17.11.2014 Liege, Belgium A Governance-Driven Solution for a European Space Weather ‎Monitoring System

Requirements overview and major system drivers A Governance-Driven Solution for a European Space Weather ‎Monitoring System Requirements overview and major system drivers 400+ assets 3000+ requirements 303 products 37 services 8 service domains System performance S/C designers S/C operators Human spaceflight Launch operators Satellite com & nav SST Non-space operators General data services 11th European Space Weather Week 17.11.2014

A Governance-Driven Solution for a European Space Weather ‎Monitoring System SWE System Context 11th European Space Weather Week 17.11.2014

Space Segment One mission to a low altitude Earth orbit A Governance-Driven Solution for a European Space Weather ‎Monitoring System Space Segment One mission to a low altitude Earth orbit Two missions to a LEO sun-synchronous orbit Two missions on MEO (SSA payloads hosted) Two missions in GEO (SSA payloads hosted) One mission at L1 (preferably SSA payloads hosted, however dedicated mission option given as well) One mission at L5 (preferably SSA payloads hosted, however dedicated mission option given as well) 11th European Space Weather Week 17.11.2014

Space Segment – SSO Mission 1 A Governance-Driven Solution for a European Space Weather ‎Monitoring System Space Segment – SSO Mission 1 Sun-Synchronous Dawn-Dusk orbit (h~974 km): Allows nearly continuous view of the sun (duration of max 13 min over a yearly three months period) SSO Mission 1 Orbit altitude vs S/C mass had to be traded Higher altitude results in less eclipses but more propellant needed for de-orbiting the S/C Wet mass of 858 kg, including the following paylaods: Radiation Monitor Soft X-ray solar disk imager Langmuir probe with VLF spectrometer Doppler imager Magnetometer Ly-alpha imager E or B antenna with HFMF-LF receivers/spectrometers VIS coronograph EUV solar disk imager Solar radiospectrographer VIS solar disk imager EUV-ray flux monitor UV-ray flux monitor 11th European Space Weather Week 17.11.2014

Space Segment – Polar LEO (SSO Mission 2) A Governance-Driven Solution for a European Space Weather ‎Monitoring System Space Segment – Polar LEO (SSO Mission 2) Mission very similar to SSO 1 Some payloads require 2 measurement points at same orbit with 180° phasing Launched with VEGA Wet mass of 500 kg, including the following paylaods: Polar LEO GNSS receiver E or B antenna with HFMF-LF receivers/spectrometers Micro particle detector Magnetometer Radiaion monitor Langmuir probe with VLF spectrometer 11th European Space Weather Week 17.11.2014

Space Segment – Low Altitude Mission A Governance-Driven Solution for a European Space Weather ‎Monitoring System Space Segment – Low Altitude Mission Required for atmospheric density measurements and aurora imaging SSO (not Dawn-Dusk) Altitude traded with lifetime At an altitude of 350 km it is expected to have about 4 mN of drag force, which results in about -29 m/rev change in semi-major axis. Continuous electric propulsion necessary for drag compensation S/C mass estimated to 815 kg, including the following payloads: Low Altitude Mission Accelerometer Wide-field auroral imager 11th European Space Weather Week 17.11.2014

Space Segment – MEO Missions A Governance-Driven Solution for a European Space Weather ‎Monitoring System Space Segment – MEO Missions MEO Missions Instruments in MEO can be hosted on navigation satellites – many opportunities This enables a significant cost reduction Instruments require to be placed in two different S/C on the same orbit with roughly 180° phasing between each other. The following payloads should be included: Radiaion monitor Ion Spectrometer Magnetometer 11th European Space Weather Week 17.11.2014

Space Segment – GEO Missions A Governance-Driven Solution for a European Space Weather ‎Monitoring System Space Segment – GEO Missions GEO Missions GEO Instruments in GEO can be hosted on Geostationary satellites – also many opportunities This enables a significant cost reduction Instruments require to be placed in two different S/C on the same orbit with roughly 180° phasing between each other. The following payloads should be included: Radiaion monitor Ion Spectrometer Magnetometer Micro-particle detector 11th European Space Weather Week 17.11.2014

Space Segment – L1 Mission A Governance-Driven Solution for a European Space Weather ‎Monitoring System Space Segment – L1 Mission Approach used was to minimise cost of mission by minimizing platform size and dimension. This was achieved by placing the sun observing payloads in LEO A drawback of this approach are the eclipses in LEO which can obstruct the FoV, however in SSO they are minimized. Sun Earth L1 1.5 million km Payloads: Ion Energy Spectrometer Density probe 3-axis Fluxgate Magnetometer Radiation Monitoring 11th European Space Weather Week 17.11.2014

Space Segment – L5 Mission A Governance-Driven Solution for a European Space Weather ‎Monitoring System Space Segment – L5 Mission L5 mission is important for monitoring the Sun-Earth line and to detect anomalies in the sun behaviour before they are visible from the Sun-Earth line. Sun Earth L5 1 AU Sun-Earth line Payloads: EUV solar disk imager Heliospheric imager Coronograph imager 11th European Space Weather Week 17.11.2014

Systems versus Systems of systems A Governance-Driven Solution for a European Space Weather ‎Monitoring System Systems versus Systems of systems 11th European Space Weather Week 17.11.2014

A Governance-Driven Solution for a European Space Weather ‎Monitoring System Analysis approach Contribution of instruments to overall SWE capability Contribution of each satellite (or space mission) to overall SWE capability Uncertainties usually faced by space systems Governance approach Redundancy and deployment alternatives Qualitative adaptability assessment Redefinition of SWE (space segment) architecture Deployment strategy 11th European Space Weather Week 17.11.2014

Dependencies M products and derived products A Governance-Driven Solution for a European Space Weather ‎Monitoring System Dependencies M products and derived products 11th European Space Weather Week 17.11.2014

Capability loss analysis A Governance-Driven Solution for a European Space Weather ‎Monitoring System Capability loss analysis 11th European Space Weather Week 17.11.2014

Capability contribution analysis A Governance-Driven Solution for a European Space Weather ‎Monitoring System Capability contribution analysis 11th European Space Weather Week 17.11.2014

Capability for money ...yet SSO LEO maximum absolute capability A Governance-Driven Solution for a European Space Weather ‎Monitoring System Capability for money ...yet SSO LEO maximum absolute capability 11th European Space Weather Week 17.11.2014

Other hosting opportunities? A Governance-Driven Solution for a European Space Weather ‎Monitoring System Other hosting opportunities? 11th European Space Weather Week 17.11.2014

Impact of NGRM (in-situ) not driving capability analysis A Governance-Driven Solution for a European Space Weather ‎Monitoring System Impact of NGRM (in-situ) not driving capability analysis 11th European Space Weather Week 17.11.2014

Limited to European assets – What is the cost of ownership? A Governance-Driven Solution for a European Space Weather ‎Monitoring System Governance approach Limited to European assets – What is the cost of ownership? 11th European Space Weather Week 17.11.2014

Adaptability assessment – Approach A Governance-Driven Solution for a European Space Weather ‎Monitoring System Adaptability assessment – Approach UNCERTAINTIES DESIGN OPTIONS Satellite duplication Satellite duplication & phased deployment Instrument duplication within satellite Instrument duplication in different orbit Launch delay New user requirements In-orbit failure Budget fluctuation Qualititative – Not probabilistic based due to time limitations 11th European Space Weather Week 17.11.2014

Adaptability assessment – Schedule delay example A Governance-Driven Solution for a European Space Weather ‎Monitoring System Adaptability assessment – Schedule delay example Nominal Redundant satellites Redundant satellites & Phased deployment 11th European Space Weather Week 17.11.2014

Adaptability assessment – Results A Governance-Driven Solution for a European Space Weather ‎Monitoring System Adaptability assessment – Results Case Sch delay New user reqs Budget delay In-orbit failure Investment Investment profile 0. Baseline 3 5 1. Satellite duplication 2. Satellite duplication & phased deployment 4 4.5 3. Overlapping replenishment 3.5 4. Instrument duplication with each satellite 2 5. Instrument duplication in different orbits 2.5 1 11th European Space Weather Week 17.11.2014

Deployment strategy – New insights from adaptability A Governance-Driven Solution for a European Space Weather ‎Monitoring System Deployment strategy – New insights from adaptability Option a) GOES/EXIS moves from SSO to L1 Option b) SWAP+SolO/PRW move from SSO to L1 So... Why Option a) not baseline for L1? Because of ADAPTABILITY! 11th European Space Weather Week 17.11.2014

Deployment strategy – Results A Governance-Driven Solution for a European Space Weather ‎Monitoring System Deployment strategy – Results Objective: maximize cumulated capability L1 satellite option a) SSO satellite Polar LEO satellite L5 satellite Low altitude LEO But L1 replenishment with BASELINE L1 satellite! 11th European Space Weather Week 17.11.2014

Conclusions and future work A Governance-Driven Solution for a European Space Weather ‎Monitoring System Conclusions and future work A cost-effective solution for a SWE has been presented The value of governance, capability and adaptability analyses was proven by showcasing their application on the space segment of the proposed architecture Future work is proposed to expand such activities to the full SWE and to: Model quantitatively all types of uncertainties Validate capability/value models of SWE services Automate generation of design alternatives Automate generation of uncertain future scenarios Perform Monte Carlo analyses with optimization to identify best-value design alternatives and deployment strategies 11th European Space Weather Week 17.11.2014