Jurandir ZULLO Junior Effective use of agrometeorological systems and information Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Geoffrey Vanden Heuvel Dairy Farmer / Vice-Chairman,

Advertisements

1 The Changing Fortunes of the EUs Energy Market Antony Froggatt.

Name of patternPrimary Base 10 Blocks PRINT IN COLOR AND ON CARD STOCK, IF POSSIBLE Suggested GradesK at the end of school; 1 st - anytime 2 nd at the.

Fill in missing numbers or operations

Indian Agricultural Research Institute

Regions of the United States Chapter Seven

Grain Market Outlook Cover Your Acres Conference Oberlin, Kansas January 22-23, 2008 Daniel OBrien & Mike Woolverton K-State Research and Extension

Performance of Hedges & Long Futures Positions in CBOT Corn Goodland, Kansas March 2, 2009 Daniel OBrien, Extension Ag Economist K-State Research and Extension.

2008 K-State Risk Assessed Marketing Workshops Grain Marketing Basics: Cash Grain Basis, Forward Contracts, Futures & Options Dr. Daniel M. OBrien Extension.

2008 K-State Risk Assessed Marketing Workshops Grain Marketing Principles & Tools Cash Grain Basis, Forward Contracts, Futures & Options Dr. Daniel M.

Assessment of fire risk in boreal forests under the present-day and future climate Andrea Vajda, Ari Venäläinen and Kirsti Jylhä Finnish Meteorological.

U N I V E R S I T Y O F A A R H U S Faculty of Agricultural Sciences Climate change impact on winter wheat yield and nitrogen leaching Preliminary analysis.

Who Wants To Be A Millionaire?

The Start of the rains at Moorings. Contents The data Annual values Examples of years Defining the start of the season Results omitting dry spells Adding.

S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S D E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E, F I S H E R I E S A N D F O R E S T R Y S C I E N C E F.

Dr. Adriana-Cornelia Marica & Alexandru Daniel

IGES Executive Roundtable on Climate April 25, 2012.

Introduction to global climate change and impacts in Ukraine National Ecological Centre of Ukraine Iryna.

Operations Management For Competitive Advantage © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2001 C HASE A QUILANO J ACOBS ninth edition 1 Strategic Capacity Management.

1 Production Risk Management: Running With The Bulls Gary Brester MSU Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics May 6, 2008 Current Dynamics in.

Water in the West: Current Use and Future Challenges Christopher Goemans, Ph.D. Agricultural and Resource Economics 13 th Annual Farmers Cooperatives Conference.

AgroCLIM software tool for effective calculation of agrometeorological indices ADAGIO & COST 734 Miroslav Trnka, Petr Hlavinka, Jan Balek, Josef Eitzinger,

Characterization and Delineation of Production Systems Feliciano T. Bantilan, Hama Kontongomde, Mohan Rao Palleti December 23, 1996 Methodology DEM Rainfall.

Characterization of Agriculturally Important Rainfall variables for agricultural decision making, Hawassa, Ethiopia Group members Mr. Gizachew Legesse.

Coffee Outlook February Coffee Historical Background Coffee was 1 st Discovered in Ethiopia in the 6 th Century Coffee Drinking Begins to Spread.

Structural Changes in the World Coffee Market Panos Varangis y Bryan Lewin Banco Mundial La Crisis Cafetalera y su Impacto en Centroamerica: Situaci ó.

BIOENERGY PARK MODEL FOR THE WORLD BANK. Bioenergy Park for Poverty alleviation and job creation 1.

INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO Submitted to COP8 THROUGH THE UNFCCC/ Secretariat, October 2002.

1 Weather covers Customized Contracts WMO meeting, Geneva, December 2007.

1 Agricultural Commodity Options Options grants the right, but not the obligation,to buy or sell a futures contract at a predetermined price for a specified.

Edwards Aquifer Forecasts for 2014 Jim Winterle—EAA modeling supervisor HCP Stakeholder Committee May 28,

GYGA protocol GYGA-team Updated February GYGA principles (1) Consistent approach to assess Yield potential (Yp), Water- limited yield (Yw), Actual.

Benjamin Banneker Charter Academy of Technology Making AYP Benjamin Banneker Charter Academy of Technology Making AYP.

Equal or Not. Equal or Not

Describing the Effect of Ag On Our Society A quick look at how ag effects all of us.

Market Data ASHRAE May, Keith Stippich. Global Energy Consumption Global Energy Consumption (+10.9% overall increase)

1 McGill University Department of Civil Engineering and Applied Mechanics Montreal, Quebec, Canada.

REVIEW OF CURRENT AGROMETEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS AND FUTURE POTENTIAL IN URUGUAY AND FUTURE POTENTIAL IN URUGUAY (MSc) Mario Bidegain Dirección Nacional.

© Crown copyright Met Office 2011 Climate impacts on UK wheat yields using regional model output Jemma Gornall 1, Pete Falloon 1, Kyungsuk Cho 2,, Richard.

The Management of Water and Land Resources for Agriculture in Chinese Taipei Ho, Yi-Fong Wu, Chii-Reid Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation APEC International.

Univ. of Alberta Climate Change Impacts on Canadian Agriculture R.F. Grant Dept. of Renewable Resources, Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton,Alberta.

Crop Yield Appraisal and Forecasting - Decision Support under Uncertain Climates.

AG OUTLOOK LA NIÑA WINTER 2010 Clyde Fraisse Agricultural and Biological Engineering University of Florida November 18, 2010 Albany, GA.

Climate and Agricultural Outlook for 2008/09 Johan van den Berg SANTAM AGRICULTURE.

Grain, Oilseed, and Biofuel Outlook Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University January 18,

Application to the rice production in Southeast Asia Rice Production Research Program Agro-meteorology Division National Institute for Agro-Environmental.

Agriculture, Water and the California Economy Urban Water Institute Annual Water Policy Conference San Diego Friday August 24, 2012 Daniel A. Sumner, University.

LESOTHO Lesotho: Enabling Activities for the Implementation of the United Nations Frame-work Convention on Climate Change S.P. Raboqha.

16.391, , ,40 Climatic Risks Zoning and Brazilian biofuels agriculture USDA Global Conference on Agricultural Biofuels: Research and Economics.

WMO / COST 718 Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers November 2004 Geneva, Switzerland.

Impacts of (Possible) Climate Change in the Production of Sugar cane in Center-South Region of Brazil J.Zullo Jr, A.Koga-Vicente, V.R.Pereira Cepagri -

Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments Hands-On Training Workshop Impact, Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment for the Agriculture Sector – Part 2.

Expected Change of the Key Agrometeorological Parameters in Central Europe by 2050 Trnka M. 1,3, Štěpánek P. 2, Dubrovský M. 3, Semerádová D. 1,3, Eitzinger.

EXPERT MEETING ON REQUIREMENTS OF THE CATASTROPHE INSURANCE AND WEATHER RISK MANAGEMENT MARKETS FOR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES Challenges.

An Application of Field Monitoring Data in Estimating Optimal Planting Dates of Cassava in Upper Paddy Field in Northeast Thailand Meeting Notes.

AMFUCoimbatorePalampurJothpur LocationCoimbatore Kangra Kullu Jothpur Crop – RainfedSorghumWheat 1.Preal millet 2.Clusterbean Crop – IrrigatedMaize - Rice.

Climate impacts on UK wheat yields using regional model output

SCOR Group results at September 30, 2005 November 3, 2005 Potential use of historical reanalysis by agricultural re/insurance industry Olena Sosenko Australia.

The water climate balance of the soil is the sum of the amount of water that gets in and out of a given area in a given time period. The input of water.

Northwest Geographic Area Coordination Center Predictive Services Winter of Climate and Significant Fire Potential Outlook Monday December 7.

World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts Lockup Briefing April 9, 2014.

1 Alfredo Scheid Lopes Agronomist, MSc, PhD, Emeritus Professor, UFLA, Lavras, MG Technical Consultant of ANDA – São Paulo, SP Alfredo Scheid Lopes Agronomist,

Guiding Policy-making Process on a Tangible Scientific Basis

An Agriculture Perspective

Using Agrometeorological Information for crop insurance in Malawi

COMBO: Crop Insurance for 2011

Climate Change and the Midwest: Issues and Impacts

Making Climate Information Usable to the Ag Community

State Climate Office Drought Update

Presentation transcript:

Jurandir ZULLO Junior Effective use of agrometeorological systems and information Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004

Presentation Outline  Brazilian Agricultural Zoning  Agrometeorological operational systems in Brazil – regional and national  Effects of climate change (IPCC) in Brazilian Agricultural Zoning

Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 Agricultural Zoning Agribusiness GDP in 2003: US$ 165 billion (30% GDP - US$ 500 billion) Agribusiness Exportations: US$ 30 billion (40%) 30% of jobs Grain production in 2003: 122 millions tons Program coordinated by the Department of Agriculture and EMBRAPA (National Institute for Agricultural Research) since 1995 Federal Farm Credit Policy US$ 8 billion (US$ 2.5 billion for small farmers)

Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 Main Objective Decrease the climate risks  dry spells during flowering and grain-filling (60%)  excessive rain during the harvest period (30%) Product Planting Calendars Crops: Corn, Soybean, Beans, Rice (Wheat, Sorghum, Fruits, Coffee) Periods: Dekad (10 days), Oct to Dec (Jan to Dec) Counties / Municipal districts Macro-regions: Central, Southeast and South (Northeast) Risk: less than or equal to 20%

Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 < 25% 25% - 50% 50% - 75% 75% - 100% Probability of 10-days dry spells January - BAHIA

Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 < 25% 25% - 50% 50% - 75% 75% - 100% Probability of 10-days dry spells February - BAHIA

Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 Methodology Simulation of cumulative water balance for different soil types, planting dates, cycle lengths, ground stations Decision criteria / Risk Analysis: a) WRSI during reproductive stage  Threshold Value (80% of all simulated years) WRSI: Water Requirement Satisfaction Index WRSI = actual / maximum evapotranspiration b) Excessive rain during harvest 50mm accumulated in 3 days of a 5-days period

Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004

Preliminary Data Collection Length of four growth stages (Initial, Vegetative, Reproductive and Maturity) for early and normal cultivars Length of total growing period Crop coefficient (Kc) Soil water holding capacity Rainfall Evapotranspiration

Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004

Initial Stage Vegetative Stage Reproductive Stage Maturity Kc

LENGTH OF GROWTH STAGES RAINFALL CLIMATE RISK ZONING WRSI PET CROP COEFFICIENT COMPUTE ZONING CUMULATIVE WATER BALANCE SOIL TYPE PLANTING DEKAD Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004

soybean SIMULATIONS corn SIMULATIONS beans SIMULATIONS rice SIMULATIONS wheat SIMULATIONS

Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 Soybean Early Cultivar Clay Soil Dekad: Oct, 1 st Goiás ( km 2 )

Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 Soybean Early Cultivar Clay Soil Dekad: Nov, 1 st Goiás ( km 2 )

Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 Soybean Early Cultivar Clay Soil Dekad: Dec, 1 st Goiás ( km 2 )

Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 Soybean Early Cultivar Clay Soil Dekad: Nov, 1 st Minas Gerais ( km 2 )

Soybean Early Cultivar Clay Soil Dekad: Dec, 1 st Minas Gerais ( km 2 ) Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004

Soil Water Content – São Paulo – Sep/16 – 20/2004

Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 Soil Water Content – São Paulo – Oct/15 – 19/2004

Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 Maximum Temperature – São Paulo

Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 Rainfall – São Paulo

Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 Frost Risk – Paraná

Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18,

Results Organization of federal farm credit policy and insurance Decrease of agricultural losses due to climate events (Insurance debt = US$ 637 million accumulated in 5 years) Even self-financed farmers are using the zoning Increase: productivity, production and use of technology Losses of US$ 33 millions in 2002: farmers growing corn during fall and winter in unsuitable (high risk) areas Frauds decrease and inhibition Availability of data for agricultural planning Demand for new crops, regions and periods

Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 Questions What can happen to agricultural zoning in next decades ? Will the suitable areas change in the case of new climate conditions ? (decrease ?, increase ?, migrate ?) Methodology Prepare new zonings simulating different climate conditions according to IPCC report (2001) Climate scenarios: Current, Increase of 1°C, 3°C and 5.8°C in Temperature and Increase of 15% in precipitation

Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 Climate Conditions Suitable for Coffee Production Average Annual Temperature: 18°C to 22°C (up to 23°C) Annual Water Deficit: 0mm to 100mm (up to 150mm) Absolute Minimum Temperature: > 1°C (Frost Risk)

Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 Total Area: km 2

Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 Total Area: km 2

Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 Total Area: km 2

Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 Total Area: km 2

Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004

Further Works Simulations for other crops Simulations for other states Use of other models and analysis of climate change Assessment of climate change

Jurandir ZULLO Junior Effective use of agrometeorological systems and information Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004

Agricultural Losses - Seasons 91/92 and 92/93 Factors / causes: Dry spells during reproductive stage (flowering and grain- filling) - 60% Excessive rain during harvest - 30% (Planting after the first rainfalls of spring)