Are We Winning? AN INTERIM REPORT vision. strategy. dialogue. for a Stronger, Safer America April 29, 2009 Bernard I. Finel and Christine Dehn American Security Project

Are We Winning? Outline March 2008Update Attacks by Islamist Groups Pakistan Assessing the “Obama Effect” The Impact of the Financial Crisis Conclusions Questions vision. strategy. dialogue. for a Stronger, Safer America April 29, 2009 Are We Winning? AN INTERIM REPORT

Key Numbers? March 2008Update “When President Bush left office on Tuesday, America marked 2,688 days without a terrorist attack on its soil.” --Marc A. Thiessen, the Washington Post, January 22, “When President Clinton left office on January 20, 2001, America marked 2,890 days without a [foreign] terrorist attack on its soil.” --Bernard I. Finel, Today vision. strategy. dialogue. for a Stronger, Safer America April 29, 2009 Are We Winning? AN INTERIM REPORT

Progress in Iraq Violence in Iraq has declined significantly, though attacks by Islamist groups remain significant. Recent uptick in suicide attacks troubling. It remains unclear whether improvements in Iraq will persist as U.S. drawdowns continue. Regardless, improvements in Iraq has little demonstrable relationship to the broader threat posed by radical Islamist groups. March 2008Update vision. strategy. dialogue. for a Stronger, Safer America April 29, 2009 Are We Winning? AN INTERIM REPORT

Attacks by Jihadists: Increasing Elsewhere March 2008Update Islamist attacks around the world continue to increase. Trendline shows nearly constant increase over the past four year. Attacks now occur at roughly triple the rate of At least six times the rates of the period. And more than ten times as many as in the late 1990s. Casualties have flattened out and the range of casualties per incident has become more consistent. It is not clear whether this is due to random variation or whether it reflects some change in the institutional capacity of Islamist terrorist groups. vision. strategy. dialogue. for a Stronger, Safer America April 29, 2009 Are We Winning? AN INTERIM REPORT

Attacks by Islamist Extremists March 2008Update vision. strategy. dialogue. for a Stronger, Safer America April 29, 2009 Are We Winning? AN INTERIM REPORT Increase in attacks driven by developments in Pakistan, Somalia, Russia, and the Philippines.

Hot Spots March 2008Update vision. strategy. dialogue. for a Stronger, Safer America April 29, 2009 Are We Winning? AN INTERIM REPORT

Importance of Violent Islamists March 2008Update vision. strategy. dialogue. for a Stronger, Safer America April 29, 2009 Are We Winning? AN INTERIM REPORT Anti-American Violent Jihadists 10,000 Violent Jihadists 50,000 Supports Violence Million Islamists Million Muslims 1.3 Billion

Pakistan Developments March 2008Update Pakistani Taliban power has become institutionalized in Swat Valley. Islamist military activity is getting closer to the capital. The Pakistani army and intelligence services remain surprising passive in the face of the growing threat. Pakistani intelligence continues to maintain ties with radical Islamist groups. The situation in Pakistan may already be irretrievable. vision. strategy. dialogue. for a Stronger, Safer America April 29, 2009 Are We Winning? AN INTERIM REPORT

Trends in Public Attitudes: Good News … March 2008Update The vast majority of Muslim reject terrorism as a tactic. The trends in this indicator remain positive, with the notable except of Pakistan. vision. strategy. dialogue. for a Stronger, Safer America April 29, 2009 Are We Winning? AN INTERIM REPORT

Trends in Public Attitudes: …and Bad News March 2008Update Many Muslims remain skeptical of American motives. There is no solid evidence that the “Obama effect” has significantly altered Muslim views of the United States. The “Gaza effect” may have overridden initial optimism. Poll results remain paradoxical. vision. strategy. dialogue. for a Stronger, Safer America April 29, 2009 Are We Winning? AN INTERIM REPORT

Financial Crisis March 2008Update The Middle East and North Africa have been less affected by the global economic downturn than most regions. World Bank predicts a 3.3% economic growth rate for the region in 2009 and 5.2% in These growth rates are at the lower limit of what is required for social stability. vision. strategy. dialogue. for a Stronger, Safer America April 29, 2009 Are We Winning? AN INTERIM REPORT

Conclusions March 2008Update Progress in Iraq is not translating into success in combating the global Islamist threat. Terrorist attacks by Islamist groups continue to increase at a rapid pace. Developments in Pakistan are frightening. The financial crisis is likely to have a limited impact on the Muslim world. vision. strategy. dialogue. for a Stronger, Safer America April 29, 2009 Are We Winning? AN INTERIM REPORT

For additional information and research visit: March 2008Update vision. strategy. dialogue. for a Stronger, Safer America April 29, 2009 Are We Winning? AN INTERIM REPORT