Climate Change: Always the Bridesmaid? Hadi Dowlatabadi Canada Research Chair, UBC Climate Decision-Making Center, CMU University Fellow, RFF December C DMC

Outline Is climate change the primary concern of anyone but the climate impacts community? Do we have decision-aiding approaches that are climate change capable? NO! But all we want is better decisions.

C DMC Views of Climate Context Determinant Hazard Resource Source: Riebsame, 1985 CONTROL+ALT+DELETE

Source: wag_the_dog_ver3.jpghttp://samiam.com/uploaded_images/an-inconvenient-truth jpg

C DMC Australian Agri-drought 1997 we completed a project on adaptation in Australian agriculture. We expected ENSO effects to have made the sector particularly aware of adaptation issues. We expected adaptation to climate change to be a primary driver of their choices…

C DMC Rainfall & Wheat yield:

C DMC Rainfall, Yield, and profits: Coefficient of variation higher in profit than yield

C DMC Multi-stress Weather Internal markets External markets C+N cycle disturbances Pests Soil & water degradation Financial & currency markets

C DMC Multi-Responses Storage Insurance Engineering Management Land use R&D Incentives Disaster Aid …

C DMC Characterizing Interactions Source: D. Greatz, H. Dowlatabadi, M. Kandlikar, and J. Risbey (1998)

C DMC Sea Level Rise July

C DMC homes are arrayed to enjoy the view... Housing model information from tax rolls

C DMC Storm Surges + Sea Level Rise Storm model information from tide gauges

C DMC Impacts from SLR We only simulate 50 years -- before there is inundation. But during this time there will be many storms. Subsequent to each storm homeowners decide about repairs, relocation, etc. Household level decision-making is simulated using patterns of insurance claims in combination with: assumptions about homeowner risk aversion, developer motivations, and a simple model of the real estate market. We run many simulation runs in order to get representative distributions of storm events over 50 years.

C DMC damage due to SLR and STORMS Inundation damage $ 10 6 discounted cumulative damage (50 yrs) Cumulative Probability

C DMC damage With & Without Rebuilding Regulations $ 10 6 discounted cumulative damage (50 yrs) Cumulative Probability Source: West, J. J., H. Dowlatabadi, et al. (2001). "Storms, investor decisions, and the economic impacts of sea level rise." Climatic Change 48:

Source: slr_usafl_3meter_lg.htm

C DMC Why Arctic Communities? Expected to experience the greatest climate change, –measured in terms of absolute temperature change and moisture transport. Have similar current challenges to most developing countries, –with the exception of affiliation with source of funding. Access!

C DMC Demography & Economy 26,000 people –85% Inuit –56% under 25 yr 350,000 km 2 of land –23 communities Territorial budget of 960M –80% transferred from Federal Government

C DMC This talk Context –Health –Education –Culture –Economy Climate Change –Temperature –Sea ice –Sea level Opportunities –Awareness –Capacity to respond –…

C DMC Health The Inuit & First Nations suffer more than twice the national average in: –Infant mortality, –Lung cancer, –Respiratory illnesses, –Unintentional injury, –Disability, –Suicide.

C DMC Education Source: Statistics Canada

C DMC Ethnicity Source: AMAP AMAP Assessment Report: Arctic Pollution Issues. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP.

C DMC Oil & Gas Source: AMAP AMAP Assessment Report: Arctic Pollution Issues. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP.

C DMC The Arctic Front Based on: mean air mass position: Li, S.M., R.W. Talbot, L.A. Barrie, R.C. Harriss, C.I. Davidson and J.-L. Jaffrezo, Seasonal and geographical variations of methane sulphanic acid in the Arctic troposphere. Atmos. Environ. 27A:

C DMC NOx Emissions Based on: Benkovitz, C.M., T.M. Schultz, J.M. Pacyna, L. Tarrason, J. Dignon, E.C. Voldner, P.A. Spiro, A.L. Jernnifer and T.E. Graedel, Gridded inventories of anthropogenic emissions of sulfur and nitrogen. J. geophys. Res. 101:

C DMC Lead Emissions Based on: Pacyna, J.M., B.D. Shin and P. Pacyna, 1993b. Global emissions of lead. Atmospheric Environment Service, Environment Canada, Ottawa.

C DMC Ocean Currents Based on: Macdonald, R.W. and J.M. Bewers, Contaminants in the arctic marine environment: priorities for protection. ICES J. mar. Sci. 53:

C DMC DIET POPs Based on: Hobson, K.A. and H.E. Welch, Determination of trophic relationships within a high Arctic marine food web using delta-13C and delta-15N analysis. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 84: Hargrave, B.T., Sources and sinks of organochlorines in the Arctic marine food web. In: J.L. Murray and R.G. Shearer (eds). Synopsis of research conducted under the 1993/94 Northern Contaminants Program, pp Indian and Northern Affairs Canada, Ottawa, Environmental Studies 72, 459p.

C DMC Cs (Bq/m 2 ) Estimated from bomb fallout and precipitation Source: AMAP AMAP Assessment Report: Arctic Pollution Issues. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP.

C DMC Average Cs 137 in diet (for 100Bq/m 2 dispersion) Source: AMAP AMAP Assessment Report: Arctic Pollution Issues. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP.

Drivers of Development WWII

Source: earthimage.html Partner communities One of the routes for the NW Passage

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PreDorset Coping with Sea Level Change in 4000 yrs Contemporary Historic Dorset Source: Susan D.M. Rowley

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C DMC Regional Patterns Differ

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C DMC Climate vulnerability sets priorities Sensitivity to climate change Communit y priorities Models of community adaptation: Response

C DMC All vulnerabilities set priorities Sensitivity to multiple stresses Sensitivity to climate change Communit y priorities Models of community adaptation: Response

C DMC Response Community control Local control is limited Sensitivity to multiple stresses Sensitivity to climate change Communit y priorities Models of community adaptation:

C DMC Community control Adaptive Capacity A climate focus is only a partial picture Sensitivity to multiple stresses Sensitivity to climate change Communit y priorities Models of community adaptation:

C DMC Successful Responses A fuller picture Models of community adaptation: Adaptive Capacity Community control Sensitivity to multiple stresses Sensitivity to climate change Communit y priorities External resources

C DMC Hypotheses H 0 : Communities identify risks from climate change as a special priority. H 1a : Communities enjoy control commensurate with their priorities. H 1b : Communities enjoy control over matters involving climate change adaptation. H 2 : CEDO priorities and resources match needs for broader community development planning.

C DMC Nunavut Economic Development Strategy (NEDS) 2003 THE LAND -Respecting the land -Maintaining our mixed economy -Building on the knowledge of our Elders OUR PEOPLE -Economic development for youth -Education and training -Basic needs: housing, hospitals and schools OUR COMMUNITY ECONOMIES -Community capacity building and organizational development -Small and Inuit business development -Building the knowledge base OUR TERRITORIAL ECONOMY -Putting the Nunavut Land Claims Agreement to work -Sector development and support systems -Infrastructure: from buildings to broadband -Accessing the global marketplace

C DMC Method NEDS 2003 –143 Action Items (excluding 24 implementation items) NEDA priority identification Our informed judgments about broader community priorities, sensitivity and levels of control Caveats: Action items as units of observation. NEDS as reflection of priorities –broad guiding principles –4 forms of capital: E,H,S,P

C DMC High Community Priorities THE LAND -Respecting the land oMaintaining our mixed economy -Building on the knowledge of our Elders OUR PEOPLE oEconomic development for youth oEducation and training oBasic needs: housing, hospitals and schools OUR COMMUNITY ECONOMIES oCommunity capacity building and organizational development -Small and Inuit business development -Building the knowledge base OUR TERRITORIAL ECONOMY -Putting the Nunavut Land Claims Agreement to work -Sector development and support systems -Infrastructure: from buildings to broadband -Accessing the global marketplace

C DMC Characterizing Community Priorities

C DMC Climate Sensitivity & Community Priority

C DMC Community control Community Priorities Sensitivity to multiple stresses Sensitivity to climate change High Communit y priorities 9% 91%

C DMC Characterizing Community Control

C DMC Community Control & Community Priority

C DMC Community Control & Climate Sensitivity

C DMC Characterizing Community Priorities

C DMC Characterizing Community & CEDO Priorities “Make the implementation of the community development plan the primary task of the community economic developer.”

C DMC Institutional Challenge X H 0 : Communities identify risks from climate change as a special priority. X H 1a : Communities enjoy control commensurate with their priorities. X H 1b : Communities enjoy control over matters involving climate change adaptation. X H 2 : CEDO priorities and resources match needs for broader community development planning

C DMC COMMUNITY Climate Changes Policies Resource Development Population Growth Pollution & Contaminants Values Investment & Funding Technology Climate change Is not a separable focus of effort

C DMC Adaptation within existing priorities Basic needs of the community are not being met. Their priorities are: employment, housing, health and education. Response to climate change can aggravate or help to resolve these primary concerns. Adaptation adds to the uncertainty of strategies to achieve planning goals.

C DMC Conventional strategic planning is not a shared concept Conventional strategic planning relies on a shared understanding of: –Long-term; –Risk; –Uncertainty; –Options & opportunities.

C DMC Clues to a different perspective on planning Cultural history –Comfort with short-term adaptation and uncertainty –Knowledge based on observations and experience –Ways of gathering information and using it in decision-making (e.g. Parlee et al.) Perceptions of risks (e.g. Furgal et al.) Trade-offs: valuation, acceptability, frame of experience Values: recalibration given choices (Tribe), evolving culture

C DMC Planning within the context of Inuit values Basic differences in values and perceptions need to be characterized and incorporated into decision aids. Tools for use in Nunavut need to reflect the key differences critical to strategic planning and adaptive management …

Collective decision-making Agency Limited detection Imperfect knowledge Values that change with contexts/time. Blunt mechanisms for realizing goals...we perceive changes in our environment,...evaluate various options,...implement a chosen strategy, Evaluation & Feedback Human... attribute their origin & project their future trends,

C DMC Summary Few decisions hinge on climate alone AND what we do is rarely optimal. But climate sets the context and concern about change AND allows us to ask: what are we doing and why? Creating an opening for doing better.

C DMC Acknowledgements Thanks to: Lara Whitley-Binder & the Climate Impacts Group for inviting me here. Michelle Boyle, Dean Graetz, Milind Kandlikar, Mitch Small, James Risbey & Jason West who are co-authors on much of what has been presented here. US National Science Foundation, Canada Research Chairs, Canadian Foundation for Innovation, Natural Resources Canada, Environment Canada, Resources for the Future, Electric Power Research Institute, Exxon-Mobil Education Foundation and Social and Humanities Research Council for financial support.

C DMC Reported cases of Dengue Source: US National Assessment

C DMC BioticPhysical Effects from each of these changes occur in… multiple dimensions EconomicSocietal

C DMC circumpolar regional community … and at multiple scales global

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C DMC Partysympatory Methods

C DMC The Stones Have it We need to understand climate change Imbedded in a broader context of change Evaluated by people whose values and means change … Source:

C DMC A Stochastic Environment Where Attribution is Difficult Climate is a stochastic process: –the climate of any location involves variability in realized weather; –extreme weather events occur rarely; –the most visible/memorable impacts are due to these extremes; –rarity of extreme events makes detection of trends difficult; –often various impacts are inappropriately attributed to weather extremes.  e.g., A stiff breeze in autumn leads to a shower of dead leaves. But we all recognize that the breeze did not kill the leaves. Economics is stochastic process: –the economy of any location involves variability in realized growth; –extreme economic events occur rarely; –the most visible/memorable impacts are due to these extremes; –rarity of extreme events makes detection of trends difficult; –often various impacts are inappropriately attributed to economic extremes.  e.g., A rise in oil prices leads to a flood of auto-worker layoffs. Yet the public attributes this to high oil prices.

C DMC New concepts or Misconceptions? Costly emission reductions mean difficulty in reducing adverse health effects. A demonstrably good strategy will win approval. Regulatory fairness means homogenous actors. Expressions of uncertainty aid decision-making. AQ co-benefits of GHG reductions are a given. …

C DMC Integrated Assessment From source to transformation to impacts… X Interventions of all kinds at all points possible… X Characterization of variations across populations… X Characterization of uncertainties, unknowns and unknowables…

C DMC The problem & its possible solutions Population Economic Activity Fossil energy & Land cover Atmospheric & climate change Impacts Family planning Curbing greed Going green Engineering the earth Adaptation

C DMC Integrated Assessment From source to transformation to impacts… X Interventions of all kinds at all points possible… X Characterization of variations across populations… X Characterization of uncertainties, unknowns and unknowables… ONLY ADD DETAIL WHERE VALUE OF INFORMATION IS HIGH

C DMC Integrated Assessment From source to transformation to impacts… X Interventions of all kinds at all points possible… X Characterization of variations across populations… X Characterization of uncertainties, unknowns and unknowables… ONLY ADD DETAIL WHERE VALUE OF INFORMATION IS HIGH VALUE OF INFORMATION IS ONLY HIGH WHERE IT CAN AFFECT POLICY CHOICE

C DMC My Misconceptions A demonstrably good strategy will win approval. ¬NYC and HIV-AIDS Expressions of uncertainty & VOI aid decision-making. ¬NAPAP, Climate Change,… Regulatory fairness means homogenous actors. ¬Adaptive regulations. AQ co-benefits of GHG reductions are a given. ¬UK Climate policy Costly emission reductions mean difficulty in reducing adverse health effects. ¬Partnership with Translink

C DMC Strategy Within What Context? Social norms and acceptance: –Individual or collective responsibility? –Fatalism or social contract? History: –What regulation/contracts already in place? –What relationships reign among stakeholders? … And other challenges being faced …

C DMC Next Gen IA From source to transformation to impacts… X Interventions of all kinds at all points possible… X Characterization of variations across populations… X Characterization of uncertainties, unknowns and unknowables… X Characterization of other challenges and options X Social and behavioural norms