"We succeeded in taking at picture from deep space, and, if you look at it, you see a dot. That's here. That's home. That's us. On it, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever lived, lived out their lives. The aggregate of all our joys and sufferings, thousands of confident religions, ideologies and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilizations, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every hopeful child, every mother and father, every inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every superstar, every supreme leader, every saint and sinner in the history of our species, lived there on a mote of dust, suspended in a sunbeam. The earth is a very small stage in a vast cosmic arena. Think of the rivers of blood spilled by all those generals and emperors so that in glory and in triumph they could become the momentary masters of a fraction of a dot. Think of the endless cruelties visited by the inhabitants of one corner of the dot on scarcely distinguishable inhabitants of some other corner of the dot. How frequent their misunderstandings, how eager they are to kill one another, how fervent their hatreds. Our posturings, our imagined self-importance, the delusion that we have some privileged position in the universe, are challenged by this point of pale light. Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity -- in all this vastness -- there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves. It is up to us. It's been said that astronomy is a humbling, and I might add, a character-building experience. To my mind, there is perhaps no better demonstration of the folly of human conceits than this distant image of our tiny world. To me, it underscores our responsibility to deal more kindly and compassionately with one another and to preserve and cherish that pale blue dot, the only home we've ever known.” - Dr. Carl Sagan The photo was taken by Voyager 1 in 1990 as it sailed away from Earth, more than 4 billion miles in the distance. You are here

Futureshock Don’t Panic! Arjen Kamphuis arjen@kmphs.com

Van een afstand… is er structuur in de chaos

800.000 jr Tijd

800.000 jr 7.200 jr Tijd

800.000 jr 4.000 jr Tijd

800.000 jr 950 jr Tijd

800.000 jr 55 jr Tijd

Diesel motor … 1890 2004

My first computer ... (1977) My computer ... (2006)

Muziek luisteren Zelf muziek downloaden Zelf branden op iPod zetten Online betalen (of niet) Reclame via mond tot mond Complete tussenhandel staat ter discussie

09 F9 11 02 9D 74 E3 5B D8 41 56 C5 63 56 88 C0

09 F9 11 02 9D 74 E3 5B D8 41 56 C5 63 56 88 C0 Verboten!

Diverse markten met nieuwe models Muziek industrie Reis & toerisme branche Banking & financieële dienstverlening Telecom Enz … Veroorzaakt door technologie uit 1975 - 1990

Geleidelijke vooruitgang Neemt de snelheid van verandering toe? Stand van technische mogelijkheden Geleidelijke vooruitgang Versnelde vooruitgang Onze huidige technologie Tijd Zijn we hier in de tijd? Of hier? Bron: Foresight Institute

Technologiën voor de 21ste eeuw Informatie technologie Internet Super- computers Robotica KI Mobiel ICT Tijd 2030 2020 2010 1990 1970 1960 2000 1980

Sneller kennis delen vanaf 1440 Vanaf 1967

Generaties worden korter 55+: E-mail? Zo gaan we niet met elkaar om. 30+: E-mail is een belangrijk communicatie middel, zowel zakelijk als prive 20+: E-mail is handig voor zakelijk gebruik, voor prive is SMS en chat beter 10+: E-mail? Dat doe ik met m'n oma!

Most smart people don’t work for you! Being different makes all the difference Sharing values beats selling value The company with the smartest customers wins Nobody is as smart as everybody Character counts for as much as credentials Great leaders are insatiable learners http://www.radioopensource.org/open-source-in-the-boardroom/

Evolutie van computers Rekenkracht equivalent per $1000 Computer MIPS per $1000 (1997 Dollars) Cell Miljoen P4 G5 1995 Trend 1985 Trend Apple G4 1965 Trend 1000 Gateway G6-200 Mac II Power Tower 180e 1 Commodore 64 IBM PC IBM PS/2 90 Bron: Hans Moravec Apple II Mac Iltx CDC 7600 Sun-3 1 / 1000 IBM 1130 IBM 7090 DEC VAX 11/780 IBM 704 SDS 920 1 / Miljoen IBM Tabulator ENIAC Colossus IBM 360/75 Burroughs Class 16 IBM 1620 Monroe Calcu- lator 1 / Miljard 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Year

Kwantiteit = kwaliteit ? Aantal zetten 0.1 1 10 100 1K 10K 100K 1M 10M Rekenkracht MIPS Schaak punten Bernstein, IBM 704, 1957 MacHack, PDP-6, 1966 Belle, 1983 Crazy Blitz, Crazy 1, 1981 Chiptest, 1987 Deep Thought, 1989 Deep Thought II, 1991 Deep Blue, 1997 Chess 4.0, CDC 6400, 1973 MacHack, PDP-10, 1970 Chess 4.6, Cyber 176, 1977 Kasparov Grand Master Senior Master Master Class D Class C Class B Class A Expert Kwantiteit = kwaliteit ?

"Dave Striver loved the university - its ivy-covered clocktowers, its ancient and sturdy brick, and its sun-splashed verdant greens and eager youth. The university, contrary to popular opinion, is far from free of the stark unforgiving trials of the business world: academia has its own tests, and some are as merciless as any in the marketplace. A prime example is the dissertation defense: to earn the Ph.D., to become a doctor, one must pass an oral examination on one's dissertation. This was a test Professor Edward Hart enjoyed giving."

Technologiën voor de 21ste eeuw Bio-technologie Bionica Lichaams vervanging Internet Super- computers Robotica KI Informatie technologie Mobile ICT Tijd 2030 2020 2010 1990 1970 1960 2000 1980

Biotechnologie and bionica (krantenkoppen) Monkey head transplanted successfully First artificial womb tested in Japan Paralympics 200 m record is 26.18 seconds Ratbrain flies jet fighter simulator Custom genetically designed mouse: $250 First human cloned-baby? (????????)

Grenzen vervagen…

Technologiën voor de 21ste eeuw MEMS Nano technologie Materiaal technologie Bio-technologie Bionica Lichaams vervanging Internet Super- computers Robotica KI Informatie technologie Mobile ICT Tijd 2030 2020 2010 1990 1970 1960 2000 1980

Nano geheugenchip: 2008

Nano geheugenchip: 2008

Zelfreplicerende brandstofcel

Nanotechnologie: niet bouwen maar groeien

economics: the science of choice under scarcity

Bron: Foresight Institute

Bron: Nanomedicine

2.0

? KI ICT Time 2030 2020 2010 1990 1970 1960 2000 1980 Nano technologie Lichaams vervanging KI ICT Time 2030 2020 2010 1990 1970 1960 2000 1980

Doe iets dat relevants

Neem even afstand

"We succeeded in taking at picture from deep space, and, if you look at it, you see a dot. That's here. That's home. That's us. On it, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever lived, lived out their lives. The aggregate of all our joys and sufferings, thousands of confident religions, ideologies and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilizations, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every hopeful child, every mother and father, every inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every superstar, every supreme leader, every saint and sinner in the history of our species, lived there on a mote of dust, suspended in a sunbeam. The earth is a very small stage in a vast cosmic arena. Think of the rivers of blood spilled by all those generals and emperors so that in glory and in triumph they could become the momentary masters of a fraction of a dot. Think of the endless cruelties visited by the inhabitants of one corner of the dot on scarcely distinguishable inhabitants of some other corner of the dot. How frequent their misunderstandings, how eager they are to kill one another, how fervent their hatreds. Our posturings, our imagined self-importance, the delusion that we have some privileged position in the universe, are challenged by this point of pale light. Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity -- in all this vastness -- there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves. It is up to us. It's been said that astronomy is a humbling, and I might add, a character-building experience. To my mind, there is perhaps no better demonstration of the folly of human conceits than this distant image of our tiny world. To me, it underscores our responsibility to deal more kindly and compassionately with one another and to preserve and cherish that pale blue dot, the only home we've ever known.” - Dr. Carl Sagan The photo was taken by Voyager 1 in 1990 as it sailed away from Earth, more than 4 billion miles in the distance. You are here