PROGRESS the modelling Rene Jochem

Modeling: my story line

Objective of this presentation Focus on the methodology Illustrated by an example of a possible pilot action

Modeling: my story line

Ecology : Habitat modeling Process Who was involved What kind of data is available Selecting species Combining species and data Example

Ecology : Process Preparing habitat maps –Based on modeling expert knowledge 1st meeting: what do we have, how can we use it. –GIS maps –Distribution data –Field trip –Modeling New habitat maps incorporating knowledge from experts & data –Analysis on distribution data 2nd & 3th meeting : –habitat maps: proofing & fine tuning

Ecology : Involvement Species Data BTO RSPB English Nature Expert input in meeting's, ornithologist from: Forestry Commission RSPB English Nature Sovon (Dutch NGO, like BTO) Alterra

Ecology : Available GIS Data Basic Data Vegetation Tree species Felling data Streams Maintenance Elevation Tracks Open landscape (distance to woodland) Slope

Ecology : Species Selection Criteria: Present species Critical species –Affected by recreation –Level of protection Data availability –Bird data +Presence/absence data –Environmental GIS Data

Species Selection HabitatEnglishLatinBird Directive Appendix 1 RSPB Red list RSPB Amber list Class of Disturbance Network distance (km) Habitat demand (ha) RSPB List Criteria Forest (Decidious, Pine) Wood warblerPhylloscopus sibilatrixX3503  Moderate (25-49%) decline in UK breeding population over last 25 years WoodcockScolopax rusticolaX4503  Moderate (25-49%) decline in UK breeding population over last 25 years.  Rapid (>=50%) contraction of UK breeding range over last 25 years. RedstartPhoenicurus phoenicurusX4103  Species with unfavourable conservation satus in Europe Dry heathland/ grassland NightjarCaprimulgus europaeusXX1253  Rapid (>=50%) contraction of UK breeding range over last 25 years  >=50% of UK breeding population in 10 or fewer sites, but not rare breeders WoodlarkLullula arboreaXX  Rapid (>=50%) contraction of UK breeding range over last 25 years  >=50% of UK breeding population in 10 or fewer sites, but not rare breeders Sky larkAlauda arvensisx2103  Rapid (>=50%) decline of UK breeding population over last 25 years.  Species with unfavourable conservation satus in Europe CurlewNumenius arquataX1253  >+ 20% of European breeding population in UK Dartford warblerSylvia undataXX???  Historical population decline during , but recovering; population size has more than doubled over last 25 years.  >=50% of UK breeding population in 10 or fewer sites, but not rare breeders Streamside habitatKingfisherAlcedo atthisXX2??  Species with unfavourable conservation satus in Europe Grey wagtailMotacilla cinereaX2??  Moderate (25-49%) decline in UK breeding population over last 25 years

Ecology : GIS Data => Habitat Factors: Vegetation type as mapped in 2003 Forest coniferous or broadleaved Gorse & Bracken Distance to Woodland (Open areas 50, 150, 300 m) Topography

Ecology : Habitat factors & Selected species Species Factor Dartford warbler Vegetation Gorse Woodlark Vegetation Woodland edge Nightjar Vegetation Snipe Vegetation Open Landscape Topography Curlew & Lapwing Vegetation Open Landscape Topography

Ecology : Woodlark example

Modeling: my story line

Recreation: GPS Analysis

Recreation: GPS Statistical analysis Recreation: GPS Analysis

Recreation: GPS Pattern Analysis

Recreation: Pressure SCAN => compartments

Recreation: Pressure SCAN

Recreation: Pressure SCAN = Extrapolation GPS Data

Modeling: my story line

Modeling Effects MASOOR => detailed recreation modeling Input –User profiles –GPS data –Counting data –Path network & car parks Result –Density flow on the path network Translates into –Zones of lower reproduction

Recreation: Pressure SCAN Wilverly Shatterford

Population Dynamics

Population Dynamics: Conservation Selecting the manageable factors within the population dynamics processes Improving habitat Managing recreational pressures …..

Recreation & Bird behavior disturbanc e fleeing abandoning nest alarming increased fouraging decrease nesting decrease reproduction lower densities fouraging neighbour patch decrease reproduction lower densities increase extinction decrease exchange decrease # in patch decrease # in surrounding patches extinction metapopulation – decrease viability fouraging neighbour patchincrease mortality neighbour patches abandoning nest nesting in neighbour patch

Sensitivit y SpeciesExample: 30 passages/ hour Effect on reproduction Low (4)30 m Medium (3) Woodlark100 m High (2)Snipe Dartford warbler Nightjar Lapwing 300 m Very high (1) Curlew600 m Sensitivity to recreation

MASOOR => density flow => disturbance zones Path network (including path type) GPS & Questionnaire data –User profiles –User data –Pattern validation

Scenario examples Woodlark at Wilverly Waders at Shatterford