The Future Age Trends impacting an Ageing Community Annimac Anni Macbeth Futurist Trend Forecaster Retirement Village Association WA 10 th August WA Regional Conference Perth W Australia Keynote

10 August 2007 Annimac 2

10 August 2007 Annimac 3 Future : speed of change 1 Change we have in 1 day Grandfather had in 1 year

10 August 2007 Annimac 4 Future : speed of change 2 Differing rates Younger means faster

10 August 2007 Annimac 5 I’m never having kids. I hear they take nine months to download.

10 August 2007 Annimac 6 Future trends for RV Current issues impacting RV industry Future megatrends Key drivers Implications for thriving

10 August 2007 Annimac 7 Current trends & issues Government policies - privatising land shortage land cost destabilised money market large vs small operators

10 August 2007 Annimac 8 Current trend issues range of facilities underskilled management enviro friendliness hi tech diversification of consumers

10 August 2007 Annimac 9 Megatrends W A 1. Climate change is here 2. Peak oil has happened 3. Boom without bust 4. Perth now global city 5. Technology

10 August 2007 Annimac 10 Megatrends W A 1. Climate change is here  WA climate highly vulnerable  Tropics moving south  Desert moving west  All rainfall & temp changing  2° temp rise = 1 metre ocean rise

10 August 2007 Annimac 11 Megatrends W A 2. Peak Oil has happened  The Big Rollover : Demand > Supply  global O&G industry 2005 said: happen in 2007 – 2012  Feb 2007 industry said: Now !

10 August 2007 Annimac 12 Megatrends W A 3. Boom without bust  Rources driven boom  Aust’s strongest economy  Aust’s most stable economy  Australia globally robust  continue 20+ years - a generation

10 August 2007 Annimac 13 Megatrends W A 4. Perth Global city  GC : international vs domestic trade  real estate immediate indicator  reduced domestic fluctuations  increasing migration pressure  changing socio demographics

10 August 2007 Annimac 14 Megatrends W A 5. Technology  driving all change  70% jobs in 2020 not exist now  80% technology not imagined yet  Under 20s

10 August 2007 Annimac 15 Likely RV jobs in next 15 years ? ! 1. Biotech Homes Consultant 2. Director of Emerging Thought 3. Generational Values Translator 4. Hacker Relations Manager 5. Holistic Lifestyle Coach 6. Holographic Display Modeller 7. Home Mood Enhancement Adviser 8. Nano Technology Info Officer 9. Online Client Life Consultant

10 August 2007 Annimac 16 Japanese Robanoid 2006 Future Receptionist ? Display RV guide ?

10 August 2007 Annimac 17 Key drivers of trends 1Technology 2Economy 3Consumers Socio demographics Generational attitudes & values

10 August 2007 Annimac 18 Key drivers of trends 1Technology 2Economy 3Consumers Socio demographics Generational attitudes & values

10 August 2007 Annimac 19 Key drivers of trends 1Technology 2Economy 3Consumers Socio demographics Generational attitudes & values

10 August 2007 Annimac 20 Key drivers of trends 1Technology 2Economy 3Consumers Socio demographics Generational attitudes & values

10 August 2007 Annimac 21 Key drivers of trends Consumers Socio demographics : diversities Boomer power Boomer wealth Boomer sophistication Migrants - lifestyles Family repatterning

10 August 2007 Annimac 22 Key drivers of trends Consumers Generational attitudes & values  Elders 60+ existing RV residents conservative family ties safety & health conscious

10 August 2007 Annimac 23 Baby Boomers $100 for speeding $250 for misleading the public

10 August 2007 Annimac 24 Key drivers of trends Consumers Generational attitudes & values  Boomers new RV residents individualism varied lifestyles SKI demanding options struggling pensioners confused

10 August 2007 Annimac 25 Gen X Lifestyle Dog What ! No lemon wedge ?

10 August 2007 Annimac 26 Key drivers of trends Consumers Generational attitudes & values  Gen X wheeler dealers materialistic unfamily no ties  Gen Y DotComs 20’s immediacy mobile secure driving change

10 August 2007 Annimac 27 Ferals to 15

10 August 2007 Annimac 28 Implications for RV Thrival Speed of change - exponential  expect greater change  question assumptions  listen to consumers  global perspective  shift from economic rationalism  environmental / cultural sustainability

10 August 2007 Annimac 29 Implications for RV Thrival Consumer Power  increasing influence - on govt & biz  less trust of Big Boys - Ec Rats  greater individualism  lifestyles  multicultural  relationships  greater demands & expectations  greater generational differences  learn culture of generations

10 August 2007 Annimac 30 Implications for RV Thrival Facilities  consumer demands increasing  diversity options ranges increasing  greater partnership with residents  location  scale  design  financial markets diverging  pensions, superannuation, savings variable  cost of borrowings unstable  general economic climate good  Ec rats lose consumer support

10 August 2007 Annimac 31 Implications for RV Thrival Land  Govt long term planning unreliable  global city - costs increasing  perimeter expanding rapidly  public transport greater importance  enviro friendly non negotiable  large not necessarily better  size of villages  size of operators  mixed use desireable

10 August 2007 Annimac 32 Implications for RV Thrival Management  relationship vs accounting & legal skills  consumer driven  consumers demand personal attention  Walk the Talk  enviro sustainability  multicultural sensitivities  no isms - esp ageism & sexism  technologically up to speed

10 August 2007 Annimac 33 Parallel Universes Long term Growth of RVs ?

10 August 2007 Annimac 34 Facing the future in the RV industry :

10 August 2007 Annimac 35 thank you