Alberta Physician Workforce Planning 2014 Rollie Nichol MD, MBA Associate Chief Medical Officer, AHS January 8, 2014

2 Agenda 1.Introduction and Goal of interaction 2.Curiosity  What do you want to know? 3.Goal of workforce planning 4.Alberta Process 5.Provincial PRPC 6.AHS Data 7.Summary 8.Questions/dialogue

3 Goal of Provincial Workforce Planning 1.Predict and define Demand  Short and long term  Scenarios 2.Predict and define endogenous supply  Manage societal investment  Collaborate with faculties  Minimize “market asynchrony”

4 Alberta Process 1.Provincial PRPC (Physician Resource Planning Committee)  Episodic (past)  Sustainable (current) 2.Alberta Health Services  Service provider and recruiter (appointed docs) 3.Faculties  Curriculum, training and recruiting

5 PRPC 1.Provincial perspective 2.Multi- stakeholder 3.Policy level 4.Government funder of training programs 5.2 software planning tools  Family physician (AH)  Specialist (AHS) 6.Alignment with Non-MD Workforce and Capital Planning

6 Practitioner Workforce Planning in Alberta Medical School Enrolment Residents Training in Alberta Academic & Clinical Training Alberta Trained Undergrads Training elsewhere Community Practice Specialist Practice Rural Practice Remote Area Practice IMG Practice Entry College of Physicians and Surgeons of Alberta University of Alberta & University of Calgary Alberta Medical Association Nursing and Allied Health Providers Government of Alberta Royal College of Physician and Surgeons Canada CMA Rural Physician Action Plan Municipalities Alberta Health Services PARA

7 AHS Data

8 Family Medicine PhysiciansSpecialists Region Total 2012 Physicians per 100,000 Population Average Age Percentage Female Percentage Canadian Trained Total 2012 Physicians per 100,000 Population Average Age Percentage Female Percentage Canadian Trained Alberta %60.6% %74.8% Canada %72.9% %77.3% 2012 Alberta Physician Demographics Source: Canadian Institute for Health Information: Supply, distribution and migration of Canadian Physicians, 2012

9 Recent Recruiting Experience 30-Sep-1230-Sep-13Net Change South Zone Calgary Zone Central Zone Edmonton Zone North Zone Alberta

10 3 Year Projection TOTAL Medical Staff Workforce Forecast By Department and Zone ( ) Department Total # Physicians to be Recruited - ALL ZONES Addictions and Mental Health83.0 Anesthesia25.0 Cardiac Sciences22.0 Clinical Neurosciences36.0 Critical Care Medicine15.0 Diagnostic Imaging31.0 Emergency Medicine88.0 Family Medicine421.5 Family Medicine with Special Skills (eg Anesthesia, Obstetrics, Surgery)18.0

11 3 Year Projection TOTAL Medical Staff Workforce Forecast By Department and Zone ( ) Department Total # Physicians to be Recruited - ALL ZONES Medicine/Internal Medicine119.0 Obstetrics & Gynecology/ Women's Health22.0 Oncology29.0 Pathology and Laboratory Medicine39.0 Pediatrics/Child Health70.0 Rural Medicine76.0 Surgery135.0 TOTAL1229.5

12 Summary 1.We need better forecasting methodologies 2.We need to be better at planning  Accounting for changes in technology, service planning, societal needs 3.We need to give better information to you but this is only one, albeit significant, factor in your decision process

13 Dilbert

14 LINKS

15 Final Slide 1.Review questions posed at beginning 2.Any other questions/ comments/ curious thoughts

16 Family Medicine PhysiciansSpecialists Region Total 2012 Physicians per 100,000 Population Averag e Age Percentage Female Percentage Canadian Trained Total 2012 Physicians per 100,000 Population Averag e Age Percentag e Female Percentage Canadian Trained Calgary Zone %66.7% %79.8% Central Zone %42.1% %66.3% Edmonton Zone %65.1% %73.6% North Zone %33.1% %43.6% South Zone %64.8% %61.6% Unknown19N/A 9 Alberta %60.6% %74.8% Canada %72.9% %77.3% 2012 Alberta Physician Demographics Source: Canadian Institute for Health Information: Supply, distribution and migration of Canadian Physicians, 2012

17 Specialist Forecasting Tool (Need) NEED ASSESSMENT Population (Growth, Aging, Gender, Referral, Geography) Disease incidence & prevalence Standards, Policy, CPGs Academic Programs Access Utilization / Demand Clinical Programs Leadership and Admin

18 Specialist Forecasting Tool (Supply) Physician Supply (current) Roster Profile (Clinical & Academic) Benchmarks Separations (Retire, leave, change) Net Inter- Provincial Migration Specialty & Special Interest Age and Gender FTE and Productivity