Operational Analysis for HQ 1(UK)Armd Div on Op TELIC John G Owen Jarrod Cornforth Dstl Support to Operations Group

© Dstl 2003 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence 25 August 2014 OA Support Pre-Deployment Work during Nov 02 - Jan 03 Conducted and reported by analysts at HQ Land Command –Supported by analysts at Dstl Examination of ‘Northern Option’ plan –Land combat modelling –Logistic estimates (reworked for ‘Southern Option’)

© Dstl 2003 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence 25 August 2014 OA Support on Deployment HQ started to deploy in mid-Jan 03 2 analysts deployed 28 Jan 03 –Remained with Div HQ Main throughout Analysts attached to G3 Plans –Worked for cells in HQ and DSG –Also for Brigade HQs Some reachback support from NCHQ and UK –But little used because of comms problems

© Dstl 2003 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence 25 August 2014 OA Workspace

© Dstl 2003 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence 25 August 2014 Accomodation for Analysts

© Dstl 2003 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence 25 August 2014 Local Scenery

© Dstl 2003 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence 25 August 2014 OA Tasks in Support of Warfighting Static Scoring and Force Ratio estimates Battle modelling –Outcomes and casualty levels Risk to helicopters from ground fire Campaign intensity and duration Logistic and movement estimation –Ammunition requirements –Logistic reach –Spreadsheet tools of convoy movement

© Dstl 2003 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence 25 August 2014 Example Questions What is the ability of units of 16 Air Asslt Bde to occupy GOSPs against opposition? What is the effect of exchanging a BG of 16 Air Asslt Bde for a square BG of 7 Armd Bde?

© Dstl 2003 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence 25 August 2014 Methods Used Examination of force ratios using the BAMS static scoring system Estimation of attrition and battle outcome using the combat model WPT

© Dstl 2003 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence 25 August 2014 Force Comparisons 0 16 Air Asslt Bde 7 Armd Bde 16 Air Asslt Bde 7 Armd Bde Inf Bn + Mor Bn Tk RegtMech Inf Bn Inf Bde + Arty Regt Mech Bde + Div Arty Arm Bde + Div Arty BAMS Scores Iraqi Force 3RHA Square Armd BG 4 Square Armd BG 3 Square Armd BG 2 Square Armd BG 1 7RHA 3 Regt AAC D Sqn HCR Pathfinder Pl 1 R Irish 3 Para 1 Para BGs exchanged

© Dstl 2003 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence 25 August 2014 Fighting in the GOSPs Do not want to damage the installations Limited lines of sight, built-up area – urban combat? THEREFORE: No UK Arty, Avn or Air support Iraqi artillery can be used Apply degradation factors, from historical analysis, to attrition rates

© Dstl 2003 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence 25 August 2014 Impact of Combat Work Military planners also do modelling Force ratio work and battle modelling generally reinforced rather than contradicted military assessment No ‘wargaming’ carried out - no time! Provided a degree of independent corroboration

© Dstl 2003 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence 25 August 2014 Logistic Reach RSG AT KUWAIT BFI AT VIPER X Km from RSG to Fwd Ech BULK FUEL STRETCH MATERIEL STRETCH Y Km from Viper to Fwd Ech Z DAYSBULK FUEL Z DAYSMATERIEL TIME REQUIRED TO MOVE START UP STOCKS & SUSTAIN FWD ELEMENTS

© Dstl 2003 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence 25 August 2014 Moving Into Iraq