Introduction to: Diagramming Types of Reasoning Comparison Cause & Effect Generalization

CE Reasoning: Diagramming “Boxes & Arrows” EVENT CAUSAL CONNECTION Ex. Mrs. Margolis only got ice cream for herself at Bedford Farms which caused her to be ostracized by her colleagues.. Ms. Kornfeld only got ice cream for herself at Bedford Farms. Mrs. Margolis was ostracized by her colleagues. TIP: Only 1 Idea per Box

CE Reasoning: 3 Basic Types (1)CAUSES—Point of argument is to explain the causes of some event. --Diagram starts with ultimate effect in box on right. Ex. There were three reasons for the failure of the Red Sox to succeed in the 2012 season. First, their starting pitching was inconsistent. Second, their relief pitching was consistently bad. And third, their big offensive players didn’t produce. Inconsistent Starting Pitching Consistently Bad Relief Pitching Big Offensive Players Unproductive Red Sox fail to succeed in 2012

CE Reasoning: 3 Basic Types (2)EFFECTS—Point of argument is to explain the effects of some event. --Diagram starts with the big cause in a box on left. Ex. There were two important effects of the failure of the Red Sox to succeed in First, Boston fans quickly shifted their attention to the Pats. And, second, Yankees fans got some joy. Red Sox fail to succeed in 2012 Boston sports fans shift attention to Pats Yankees fans get joy

CE Reasoning: 3 Basic Types (3) RELATIONSHIP—Point of argument is to explain the relationship between a cause & an effect. --Diagram starts with big cause in box on left and ultimate effect in box on right. Ex. Unemployment is a major contributor to economic contraction. Unemployment decreases household income. This, in turn, reduces consumption. Decreased consumption creates downward pressure on prices which cuts business profits. With profits reduced, businesses cut production or fail. This, inevitably, means less production thus a contraction. Also, business failure creates a vicious cycle as workers are laid off. Unemployment Economic Contraction ↓ Household Income ↓Prices ↓ Consumption ↓Profits Businesses cut back or fail ↓Production

Characteristics of Good CE Reasoning 1.Clear Connections between stated Causes & Effects Lots of Boxes in a Chain 2.Multiple Causes/Effects Multiple Chains The following slide shows what a very complex cause and effect diagram may look like!

Depression Causes World War I ends D European Economy Collapses Bank Panics Unequal wealth distribution Overinvestment Decreased Production US Industrial Overproduction Businesses cut back & fail Tax loopholes: rich pay little income tax Hawley-Smoot Tariff Retaliatory Tariffs (other countries) Decreased exports Decreased Profits US Agricultural Overproduction Low Food Prices Loan Defaults Decreased Consumption Decreased Money Supply Unemployment Bank Failures Decreased household wealth hoarding Stock Crash of 1929 Pessimism Speculative bubble Easy Credit 1920s Margin Trading Debt Burden Fed Increases reserve requirement 1931 More European Production

1.I missed the bus so I was late for school 2.The rain today led to traffic coming to a standstill, the flooding of the Concord River, and the destruction of perfectly good driveway art at the Walsh residence. 3.Superior technology combined with the ingenuity and creativity of the American soldier has made the American military the most powerful in the world. On the diagrams, label the causal connection and the events. Diagram each of the following: