U.S. Turbulence Program Update Presented to: World Meteorological Organization Commission for Basic Systems Expert Team on Aircraft-based Observing Systems First Session Geneva, Switzerland September 10-13, 2013 Presented by Tammy Farrar Research Meteorologist Weather Policy and Requirements Aviation Weather Division Federal Aviation Administration

Overview U.S. Turbulence Program Goals Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) Algorithm Deployment Status EDR Thresholds Issue Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) Development and Enhancements FAA/Delta Air Lines EDR/GTG Demos Aviation Turbulence Workshop

U.S. Turbulence Program Goals To provide real-time turbulence observations and accurate forecasts to air traffic management, flight crews and dispatchers to aid in the avoidance of turbulence Improve safety Increase airspace capacity Enhance operations efficiency (reducing fuel burn and environmental impacts from emissions). To quantify the benefits of providing such data in order to determine the most cost effective and optimal solutions for integrating turbulence data into flight operations.

Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) Algorithm UAL: 29 757s (fleet being de-commissioned) SWA: 1 737-700 (Testing, close to full deployment) DAL: 93 737s (mostly -800s with some -700s) 30 767s (mostly -300s with -400s coming online soon) KAL: 41 737s soon (in cooperation with DAL) “Tech Transfer” package in development at NCAR to allow airlines to implement EDR with minimal assistance

EDR Thresholds Issue NCAR performing on-going statistical comparisons of EDR data with PIREPS from same or nearby aircraft UAL: 2004-2012, DAL: 2009-2012; thousands of samples Results indicate the thresholds given in Annex 3 may be too high Agrees with previously published studies by other researchers Compared PIREPs to EDR data 3.8 min 70 km 1200 ft

Relation of EDR to PIREPs for medium-sized aircraft (B737,B757) Compared EDR data to nearby PIREPs 3.8 min 70 km 1200 ft PIREP Intensity scaled: 0-smooth, 1-smooth/light, 2 – light, 4 – moderate, 6 – severe, 8 - extreme ICAO thresholds: Light = 0.10 Moderate = 0.40 Severe = 0.70 Suggested new threshold values based on data from this study (median values): Light = 0.06 (<0.1) Moderate = 0.22 (0.1-0.25) Severe = 0.5 (0.26-0.7) Compared PIREPs to EDR data 3.8 min 70 km 1200 ft 0-smooth 1-smooth/light 2 – light 4 – moderate 6 – severe 8 - extreme Courtesy Julia Pearson

EDR Thresholds Issue Impacts of Annex changes on cost, operations of member states necessitate good justification and coordination ahead of time Need for independent peer-review of the study United States investigating how to best bring this new information to ICAO for the Divisional Meeting scheduled in July 2014 Compared PIREPs to EDR data 3.8 min 70 km 1200 ft

Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) Development and Enhancements Current Operational Version Gridded high resolution (13 km) forecasts of turbulence for FL100-450 Preflight tool on Operational Aviation Digital Data Service (ADDS) Includes EDR observations as input 2014 Explicit mountain wave turbulence forecasts for all levels Sfc – FL450 In development Global GTG Convectively-induced turbulence Probabilistic

DAL EDR Proof of Concept Demo In 2008, under funding from the FAA’s Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP), FAA and DAL launched a cooperative effort to begin integration of EDR and GTG into DAL flight operations Initial “Proof of Concept” Demo Sep 08-Jan 10 in DAL Operations Control Center (OCC) Dispatch Access to the EDR and GTG data provided via web-based Experimental ADDS “Turbulence Viewer” display Initial plan was to integrate the data directly into the dispatchers’ Graphical Flight Following (GFF) displays, but due to merger with Northwest Airlines, IT resources were not available

DAL EDR Proof of Concept Demo User concerns Crew/Dispatch: Multiple (sometimes conflicting) data sources, PIREP subjectivity, cabin management, tolerance for risk ATC: No access to real-time turbulence data in work area, ride reports passed from controller to controller during shift change, “blocked” out altitudes can persist for hours Flight Attendants: Cabin management/ uncooperative passengers, obligation to continue duties when seatbelt sign is on From 1980 – Jul 27, 2010, Part 121, En route 253 turbulence-related accidents2 28,934 total passengers carried 3 fatalities (0.01%), 2 were not wearing seat belts while the seat belt sign was illuminated 122 serious injuries (0.42%) 1243 flight attendants, 556 pilots 0 fatalities 204 (16.4%) serious flight attendant injuries, 0 pilot injuries Airport closures during thunderstorms Degraded acceptance/departure rates from terminals Reroutes and increased fuel usage Delays, diversions, cancellations Increased controller workload (moving aircraft to non-turbulent altitudes, communicating info to other aircraft) Negative impact of pilot initiated altitude deviations: “Shopping” for smooth rides--DAL studies-13% of flights changed altitude within 5 min of encountering light turbulence 1 http://www.faa.gov/passengers/fly_safe/turbulence/, updated here to include data through Jul 27, 2010 2 The NTSB defines an “accident” as an occurrence associated with the operations of an airplane in which any person suffers death or serious injury or in which the aircraft receives substantial damage. 1NASA Turbulence Reporting Technologies In-Service Evaluation: Delta Air Lines Report Out, April 2007

DAL EDR Proof of Concept Demo Conclusions Demo was limited in scope (product neither directly integrated into DAL applications nor actively used by entire DAL community) Anecdotal results pointed towards an improvement in dispatcher decision-making process Quantifying the actual benefits is difficult Ultimately we need to determine the best means to provide the data real-time for tactical use in the cockpit

FAA/DAL EDR Uplink Demo Follow-on effort to the 2008-10 EDR Proof of Concept Demo with DAL dispatchers and flight planners Quantify the efficiency and capacity benefits to the NAS by providing GTG / EDR information on the flight deck Identify feasibility of providing and displaying GTG / EDR information on the flight deck through existing WiFi link Identify and address human factors considerations associated with providing GTG / EDR information on the flight deck

FAA/DAL EDR Uplink Demo Demonstration Team FAA Weather Research Division FAA Flight Procedures Standards Branch FAA Concept Analysis Branch Delta Airlines National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Basic Commerce & Industries (BCI) Metron Aviation, Inc AvMET Applications, Inc

FAA/DAL EDR Uplink Demo Phase I - Complete Jumpseat and/or maintenance flights Assess WiFi accessibility in cockpit EDR data conversion (Web Feature Service) Develop alternative viewer application Develop display application software FAA and Delta Safety Risk Assessment Down-select to single tablet PC (Class I/II EFB) device type for operational demonstrations iPad selected

FAA/DAL EDR Uplink Demo Phase II – Nearly Complete Conduct HITLs to assess the human factors issues associated with the use of the tablet PCs 10 sessions Line Check Airmen Develop final operational demonstration procedures Develop pilot questionnaire for operational demonstrations Automated means to capture flight specific data and associated pilot responses Develop tools to capture sensitivity, cost benefits, and modeling information

FAA/DAL EDR Uplink Demo Phase III – On-going Conduct 12 month operational flight demonstrations of the GTG/EDR display with 40 LCAs Conduct analysis of LCA responses to flight crew questionnaires Conduct NAS Capacity Benefits Quantification Weather-ATM Analysis and Visualization Environment (WAVE) tool (AvMet Applications, Inc.) Historical “weather-centric” ATM analysis tool & research platform FAA’s Aircraft Situation Display to Industry (ASDI) Weather, including turbulence FAA Concept Analysis Branch NAS simulations

FAA/DAL EDR Uplink Demo Analysis Focus Areas Workload Impacts Pilot decision making Flightcrew – cabin crew Pilots – ATC Pilots – dispatch Safety Impacts Aircraft cabin management Environmental Impacts Altitude deviations to avoid turbulence areas Fuel requirements (greenhouse emissions) NAS airspace reallocations

FAA/DAL EDR Uplink Demo Potential Risk / Constraint Existing Supplemental Type Certificate (STC) prohibiting WiFi use in cockpit of 737NG aircraft Possible interference with Honeywell Phase III Display Units (DU) Mitigation procedures identified LCA, HITL simulations, physical distance and phase of flight restrictions DAL successfully petitioned FAA for exemption from STC for use of iPads DAL also using Microsoft Surface tablets on 757s FAA seeking modification to SRMD to include 757/767s

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Aviation Turbulence Workshop Hosted by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) August 28-29, 2013, Boulder, CO Approximately 60 participants Air Traffic Management Community US and international operators Aviation forecasters General Aviation US National Transportation Safety Board, FAA Safety Commercial weather providers Issues raised: Probabilistic fcst needs, data sharing, convective turbulence, EDR <=> “feels like”, limits of the science, commercial vs GA, global harmonization Presentations available on ftp://ftp.rap.ucar.edu/pub/sharman/Aviation_Turbulence_Workshop/

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