GODAE OceanView Observing system Evaluation Task Team Report Peter Oke 1 and Gilles Larnicol 2 1 CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research; 2 CLS November 2011 “The most exciting phrase to hear in science, the one that heralds the most discoveries, is not ‘Eureka!’, but ‘That’s funny…’ ”, Isaac Asimov ( )

GOV OSEVal-TT organisation Co-Chairs:  Peter Oke (CSIRO)  Gilles Larnicol (CLS) Core Members:  Magdalena Balmaseda (ECMWF)  Laurent Bertino (NERSC)  Gary Brassington (BoM)  Jim Cummings (NRL)  Yosuke Fujii (JMA/MRI)  Pat Hogan (NRL)  Villy Kourafalou (Univ. Miami)  Daniel Lea (UKMet)  Matthew Martin (UKMet)  Avichal Mehra (NOAA)  Pavel Sakov (NERSC)  Anthony Weaver (CERFACS) Associate members:  Mike Bell (UKMet)  Eric Dombrowsky (Mercator)  Fabrice Hernandez (Mercator)  Eric Lindstrom (NASA)  Andreas Schiller (CSIRO)

Observing System Evaluation Task Team (OSEval-TT) 33 Routine Monitoring of the GOOS Routine Monitoring of the GOOS Delayed-mode OSEs and OSSEs for short-range and seasonal forecast systems Design and evaluation of new and future observation system components Provision and management of Observation Impact Statements (OIS) based on OSEval evidence Provision and management of Observation Impact Statements (OIS) based on OSEval evidence Capacity Building

Framework for Ocean Observing: where GODAE OceanView fits 44 Contributed by E. Lindstrom, OOPC Chair, NASA GOV OSEval-TT

Observing System Evaluation Task Team (OSEval-TT) 55 Routine Monitoring of the GOOS Routine Monitoring of the GOOS Delayed-mode OSEs and OSSEs for short-range and seasonal forecast systems Design and evaluation of new and future observation system components Provision and management of Observation Impact Statements (OIS) based on OSEval evidence Provision and management of Observation Impact Statements (OIS) based on OSEval evidence Capacity Building

Capability building: GODAE and GOV OSEval Workshops 1 st GODAE OSE/OSSE workshop (November 2007, UNESCO, Paris)  OSEval-TT established 2 nd GOV OSEVal-TT workshop (June 2009, CLS, Toulouse)  Initiation of Routine Monitoring activities  OSEval-TT work plan (draft) GOVST meeting (November, 2010, JMA, Tokyo)  Initiation of NRT OSEs (2 groups committed; 1 group delivered)  OSEval-TT work plan (final; GODAE OceanView and CLIVAR GSOP workshop on Observing System Evaluation and Inter-comparisons (June 2011, Santa Cruz, CA, USA)  Extension and expansion of NRT OSEs (4 groups committed; 4 may participate)  Concept of “Observation Impact Statement” introduced

Observing System Evaluation Task Team (OSEval-TT) 77 Routine Monitoring of the GOOS Routine Monitoring of the GOOS Delayed-mode OSEs and OSSEs for short-range and seasonal forecast systems Design and evaluation of new and future observation system components Provision and management of Observation Impact Statements (OIS) based on OSEval evidence Provision and management of Observation Impact Statements (OIS) based on OSEval evidence Capacity Building

Delayed-mode OSEs and design experiments 88 Altimeter SST XBT Moorings ForecastorBGFAnalysisorForecast Altimeter SST T/S XBT Moorings Evaluation / Validation Assimilated observations Assimilated and with-held observations T/S

Delayed-mode OSEs and design experiments Observing System Experiments (OSEs) –Assimilate real observations –Systematically with-hold observation types 99 Altimeter SST XBT Moorings ForecastorBGFAnalysisorForecast Altimeter SST T/S XBT Moorings Evaluation / Validation Assimilated observations Assimilated and with-held observations T/S

Delayed-mode OSEs and design experiments Observing System Experiments (OSEs) –Assimilate real observations –Systematically with-hold observation types  10 ForecastorBGFAnalysisorForecast Evaluation / Validation Assimilated “observations” Simulated observations Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs)  Assimilate pretend “observations” … from a model  Systematically include different observation types … including future observation types

Delayed-mode OSEs and design experiments  Many examples of research in this area at the GODAE OceanView – CLIVAR GSOP workshop … refer to GOV-CLIVAR WS report  11

Observing System Evaluation Task Team (OSEval-TT)  12 Routine Monitoring of the GOOS Routine Monitoring of the GOOS Delayed-mode OSEs and OSSEs for short-range and seasonal forecast systems Design and evaluation of new and future observation system components Provision and management of Observation Impact Statements (OIS) based on OSEval evidence Provision and management of Observation Impact Statements (OIS) based on OSEval evidence Capacity Building

Responses to “observing system events”  Continuation of Jason-1 data processing in inter-leaved orbit (June 2009)  UKMet and BoM provided a demonstration of the impact of Jason-1 data in inter-leaved orbit during recent outages  13 Contributed by G. Brassington, BoM

Responses to “observing system events”  Continuation of Jason-1 data processing in inter-leaved orbit (June 2009)  UKMet and BoM provided a demonstration of the impact of Jason-1 data in inter-leaved orbit during recent outages.  Extension of life of Jason-1  CLS provided results to OSTST  14 Contributed by G. Larnicol and G. Dibardoure, CLS

Responses to “observing system events”  Continuation of Jason-1 data processing in inter-leaved orbit (June 2009)  UKMet and BoM provided a demonstration of the impact of Jason-1 data in inter-leaved orbit during recent outages.  Extension of life of Jason-1  CLS provided results to OSTST  Availability of Cryosat-2 data  GODAE OceanView Chairs and Patrons applied pressure to space agencies  15

Responses to “observing system events”  Continuation of Jason-1 data processing in inter-leaved orbit (June 2009)  UKMet and BoM provided a demonstration of the impact of Jason-1 data in inter-leaved orbit during recent outages.  Extension of life of Jason-1  CLS provided results to OSTST  Availability of Cryosat-2 data  GODAE OceanView Chairs and Patrons applied pressure to space agencies Too ad hoc – we need to be more organised 2010 GOVST  proposition of NRT OSEs  16

NRT OSEs  Routinely run parallel forecast at operational centers and with-hold a different data each month:  Quantify the impact of each data type on forecasts  Multi-system approach  Rotating data types each month  UKMet have participated  Australia and France have indicated that they will participate  China and Canada have indicated that they may participate  17 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Argo XBT TAO Jason-02 All altims SST Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec Microwave SST Argo XBT TAO Jason-2

Observing System Evaluation Task Team (OSEval-TT)  18 Routine Monitoring of the GOOS Routine Monitoring of the GOOS Delayed-mode OSEs and OSSEs for short-range and seasonal forecast systems Design and evaluation of new and future observation system components Provision and management of Observation Impact Statements (OIS) based on OSEval evidence Provision and management of Observation Impact Statements (OIS) based on OSEval evidence Capacity Building

Provision of Observation Impact Statements (OISs)  19

Provision of Observation Impact Statements (OISs)  20

Provision of Observation Impact Statements (OISs) Actions:  Agree on NRT OSE schedule  Agree on metrics  Agree on content of OISs  Agree on method of dissemination  21

Summary  GODAE OceanView OSEval-TT are committed to supporting observation agencies/teams in demonstrating the impact of observations on forecast and analysis products  Many groups are undertaking research activities to:  quantify the impact of past observations; and  contribute to the design of future observing systems  Recent initiatives have motivated operational centers to develop capabilities for quantifying the impact of current observations in NRT  DFS, analysis sensitivity, forecast sensitivity  The OSEval-TT has developed the idea of “Observation Impact Statements”  We need agreement on the details  Seek resources?  22