Black Sea Basin ENI CBC Programme ENI CBC - Support to the preparation of programmes (SPP) Implemented by AETS and Particip Funded by the European Union 3rd JPC meeting – 15 November 2013 Kavala, Greece Socio-economic analysis – key points

Presentation overview Socio-economic analysis thematic focus: ◦Territory and demography ◦Economy ◦Education and employment, R&D, research ◦Environment, health, safety and security ◦Energy, transport and communication networks ◦Culture, civil society and self-government Implemented by AETS and Particip Funded by the European Union ENI CBC - Support to the preparation of programmes (SPP)

Data sources Updated BSB excel data requested from participating countries Former BSB excel data collected in 2006 (in order to identify trends/changes) Available international data and reports (World Bank, WHO…) on BSB countries EU data to allow comparison with EU averages Implemented by AETS and Particip Funded by the European Union ENI CBC - Support to the preparation of programmes (SPP)

Implemented by AETS and Particip Funded by the European Union ENI CBC - Support to the preparation of programmes (SPP) Territory & Demography - Overview Overall BSB population increased (+2 Mon) but great regional disparities due to different fertility rates and migration flows Strong population increase in regions of TR, AZ/Decrease in regions in RO, AM, BG, UA Different age structures: young population (TR, AZ)/ageing (GR, BG) Negative migration flows for most countries (esp. MD, GE) except RU, GR, AZ Migration within BSB region is strong Disparate BSB territory: large rural areas, 3 capital cities, megacity of Istanbul Urbanisation process in all the regions Seasonal (summer) increase of coastal population

Territory & Demography StrengthsWeaknesses Young population (TR, AZ) Ageing population (GR, BG + UA, RO, GE): health, pension-financing Young population (TR, AZ): education, integration into labour market Strong urbanisation process (environmental, socio-economic challenges) Implemented by AETS and Particip Funded by the European Union ENI CBC - Support to the preparation of programmes (SPP)

Implemented by AETS and Particip Funded by the European Union ENI CBC - Support to the preparation of programmes (SPP) Territory & Demography OpportunitiesThreats Migration flows: potential for development of scientific, business and other types of networks with migrants from BSB region Labour emigration towards better economic opportunities outside BSB region

Implemented by AETS and Particip Funded by the European Union ENI CBC - Support to the preparation of programmes (SPP) Economy - Overview Strong GDP average growth in most BSB countries (except GR) over by far exceeds EU’s - esp. high AZ, MD, GE, AM Growth based on FDI inflows, credit growth, increased domestic demand, investment, exports to EU Short but severe recession following 2008 crisis for all BSB but AZ, in 2012 all seem on recovery path except GR (GE, AM >6% growth) EU is main economic partner for BSB countries (trade, FDI) FDI decreased after crisis (only GE, AZ, AM still >5% GDP) Large flows of remittances (represent 23% GDP MD, 20% GDP AM) Decline of agric. sector and rapid growth of services sector, still overall BSB larger shares of agric. and industr. sectors than the EU SMEs 99% of all enterprises (but often low value added) On average good international trade openness, but large discrepancies: BG, MD UA most integrated, RU, RO the least

Economy StrengthsWeaknesses Conducive macro-economic envt. (GDP growth, low inflation) (except GR) Strong regional disparities in growth rates and wealth Improved competitiveness in most BSB countries Corruption, lack of financing, administrative burden (esp. SMEs) Improved business envt. in GE, AMWorse business envt in RO, RU, BG, UA Reduced GDP per capita disparities within BSB and compared to EU average GDP per capita still 4 times lower the EU average Diverse economic structures in BSB (possible complementarity, incl. services) Lack of diversification within national economies, still low value added sectors Strong intra-regional trade growth (incl. agric. products) Large discrepancies for integration in international trade and trade balance Strong tourism sector and remaining potential Low capacity for innovation, limited high technology exports Potential for aquacultureOrganic farming little developed Implemented by AETS and Particip Funded by the European Union ENI CBC - Support to the preparation of programmes (SPP)

Implemented by AETS and Particip Funded by the European Union ENI CBC - Support to the preparation of programmes (SPP) Economy OpportunitiesThreats Remittances from BSB emigrants offset trade of balance deficit and can play a role in regional eco. devt. EU recession/difficulties since 2008 crisis limits strong recovery in BSB Increase in international tourists to BSB (esp. GE) FDI: BSB region still suffers from broader risk aversion following the crisis Tourism fast-growing econ. sector worldwide High growth rates in organic agric. worldwide

Implemented by AETS and Particip Funded by the European Union ENI CBC - Support to the preparation of programmes (SPP) Education, Employment, R&D, Research – Overview High and increasing levels of education Lack of skills remains a problem for enterprises (esp. UA, MD) Disparities in employment distribution: mostly agric. for GE, AM, mostly services for all others Wages considerably increased (x3 in AZ, GE, x4 in BG), except Greece decreased Different unemployment challenges (AZ, MD, RO, some UA and TR regions low unemployment) Rich scientific potential but difficulties in fostering research and innovation, and in keeping up with technological progress

Education, Employment, R&D, Research StrengthsWeaknesses High level of education of BSB worforce overall Regional disparities of levels of education Gap in average wages among BSB regions has considerably reduced Wage and salary earners only represent 40% of all workers in GE and AZ (majority is self- employed, in low-productive agric. or small-scale informal activities) Large numbers of universities and research centers Education systems need to adapt their training to match changing needs of the economy Collaborative work on marine environment notably involves 43 research centres and universities in BSB countries AM, GE, both GR regions and the BG region of Zeveroiztochen have high unemployment rates > 15% Youth unemployment acute issue for all regions, reaching 24% on average Female unemployment higher in AM, AZ, GR and most TR regions Low R&D expenditures Implemented by AETS and Particip Funded by the European Union ENI CBC - Support to the preparation of programmes (SPP)

Implemented by AETS and Particip Funded by the European Union ENI CBC - Support to the preparation of programmes (SPP) Education, Employment, R&D, Research OpportunitiesThreats Emigration reduces pressure on unemployment Brain drain from BSB countries and brain/skill waste (when highly educated migrants work in low-skill jobs) Research and networking in science and technology: variety of European and Black Sea initiatives and organisations (especially in maritime, environmental, energy and transport areas)

Implemented by AETS and Particip Funded by the European Union ENI CBC - Support to the preparation of programmes (SPP) Environment, Health, Safety & Security – Overview Black Sea ecosystem vulnerable, affected by agricultural, urban and industrial discharges as well as oil pollution (in particular along major shipping routes) and invasive species Pollution in BSB is sometimes an issue for drinking water The need to promote sustainable energy development remains Great inequalities in life expectancy at regional level, ranging from 64.4 years in Donetsk oblast (Ukraine) to 78.2 in Greece for men, and for women from 75 years in Moldova and Odeska oblast (Ukraine) to 82.9 years in Greece

Environment, Health, Safety & Security Strengths (1)Weaknesses (1) Black Sea ecosystem known to be rich and diverse; 4 UNESCO biosphere reserves Small terrestrial and marine protected areas. Lack of effective management plans & infrastructure for nature reserves Large cities outside the coastal zone mostly have full and sufficiently efficient biological treatment of wastewater Wastewater treatment often not sufficient in rural areas and coastal cities (overloaded in summer) BSB region generally well provided with freshwater resources Access to safe drinking water sometimes problematic (esp. rural areas). Usage of groundwater for drinking purposes is not possible everywhere Hydropower is the most widespread source of renewable energy (strong in GE) Black Sea low renewal rate and very prone to eutrophication Renewables sources other than hydropower increased over the last few years Significant pressure from land-based pollution (large catchment area, garbage accumulated on some beaches) Exploitation of renewables sources other than hydropower still in its early stages Implemented by AETS and Particip Funded by the European Union ENI CBC - Support to the preparation of programmes (SPP)

Environment, Health, Safety & Security Strengths (2)Weaknesses (2) Life expectancy has increased more quickly in BSB than in the EU BSB people live on average 7 years less than in the EU; great regional disparities Tuberculosis prevalence and mortality rates both decreased over the last few years Mortality, particularly from diseases of the circulatory system and cancer remains high (various preventable factors) External causes of death (injury): high disparities at country level High HIV rates in UA and MD Health systems face serious challenges dealing with large poverty and social exclusion High (though decreasing) infant mortality rate; High and in some countries increasing female maternal mortality Gender inequalities reflected in reproductive health and parliamentary representation Persistent conflicts and bilateral disputes between some BSB countries Implemented by AETS and Particip Funded by the European Union ENI CBC - Support to the preparation of programmes (SPP)

Implemented by AETS and Particip Funded by the European Union ENI CBC - Support to the preparation of programmes (SPP) Environment, Health, Safety & Security OpportunitiesThreats Nutrient pollution from Danube likely to continue to decrease due to the implement. of EU environmental policy Don and Dnipro may continue to carry heavy nutrient loadings into Black Sea northwestern part and Azov Sea Massive growth in wind power seen globally Oil pollution enters the sea as a result of operational discharges by vessels and due to accidents BSEC promotion of Green Energy investments Transport of oil and gas across the Black Sea is a major activity Pollution of rivers has led to sharp decline in access to safe drinking water resources Emigration affects notably doctors and skilled medical workforce in MD and BG Human trafficking

Implemented by AETS and Particip Funded by the European Union ENI CBC - Support to the preparation of programmes (SPP) Energy, Transport & Communication Networks – Overview Transport of oil and gas across the Black Sea is a major activity, mainly via tankers but also via a network of pipelines (expected to expand) Economic development in BSB countries, in particular rising foreign trade, gave a great push to the organization and development of a regional Black Sea transport system Even for Black Sea Basin land-locked countries, maritime transport provides access to the Mediterranean Sea and to ocean transport shipping routes i.e. for intercontinental trade links The Trans-Black Sea inter-modal transport network is also gaining more importance with sea ports playing an essential role in connecting land transport lines with maritime lines Internet has now become a widespread tool in BSB

Energy, Transport & Communication Networks StrengthsWeaknesses Total cargo turnover for the ports of BG, GE, RU, RO and UA between 2000 and 2007 increased more than twice; Around 50,000 ships sail through the Bosporus every year including at least 10,000 oil tanker Challenging issues and requirements concerning maritime infrastructure, fleet renewal, quality of the services in the seaport, market access to the port services, adjustment to the international environmental standards and improvement of regulations and legislation related to the sea ports Overall quality of ports infrastructure around the Black Sea good in GR, TR, GE Quality of ports infrastructure around the Black Sea assessed as rather poor overall in MD and RO. EU has only one major port for oil (Constanta) Both mobile and internet access increased by > 200% since 2005 in all BSB countries Internet use overall still lagging behind EU average The digital gap that existed among BSB countries has considerably narrowed Implemented by AETS and Particip Funded by the European Union ENI CBC - Support to the preparation of programmes (SPP)

Implemented by AETS and Particip Funded by the European Union ENI CBC - Support to the preparation of programmes (SPP) Energy, Transport & Communication Networks OpportunitiesThreats The ports of the Black Sea region serve commodity turnover between the Asian- Pacific region and Europe Motorways of the Sea (MoS) have been identified for transnational multimodal axis including the BSB region, as an extension of the Trans-European Transport Networks (TEN-T) to EU Neighbouring countries Calls for a more efficient EU energy policy towards the Black Sea

Implemented by AETS and Particip Funded by the European Union ENI CBC - Support to the preparation of programmes (SPP) Culture, Civil Society & Self-Government – Overview BSB has a rich and diverse cultural heritage that needs to be preserved Growing civil society influence Developing BSB inter-regional cooperation at the levels of local/regional authorities and NGOs

Culture, Civil Society & Self-Government Strengths Weaknesses BSB rich cultural heritage and strong cultural assets in architecture, archeology, arts, music, literature, theatre and cinematography NGOs often remain poorly anchored in society, with low membership and volunteering levels Outstanding universal value recognised by UNESCO for 18 cultural places in BSB area (historical cities, religious architecture and archeological sites) NGOs often remain organization- centered rather than joining forces in coalitions and networks around issues Wealth of cultural variety, with numerous traditional craftmanship and other intangible cultural assets listed as heritage of humanity Black Sea Euroregion still gathers limited membership NGOs number increased; Civil society and civic movements, mostly informal, have been particularly active (GE, UA, MD) Black Sea Forum for Dialogue and Partnership affected by regional tensions Creation of Black Sea Euroregion (2008) Black Sea NGO forum meets regularly Implemented by AETS and Particip Funded by the European Union ENI CBC - Support to the preparation of programmes (SPP)

Implemented by AETS and Particip Funded by the European Union ENI CBC - Support to the preparation of programmes (SPP) Culture, Civil Society & Self-Government OpportunitiesThreats CoE Congress of the Local and Regional Authorities, Assembly of European Regions (AER), as well as more recently EU Committee of the Regions Conference of the Regional and Local Authorities for the Eastern Partnership (CORLEAP) provide platforms for dialogue and cooperation

Black Sea Basin ENI CBC Programme ENI CBC - Support to the preparation of programmes (SPP) Implemented by AETS and Particip Funded by the European Union 3rd JPC meeting – 15 November 2013 Kavala, Greece SWOT Analysis & Proposed Thematic Objectives

Support for Thematic Objectives SWOT analysis: ◦Number of elements ◦Categories covered Questionnaire country representatives ◦Measures programme ◦Expected overarching ENI-CBC objectives ◦Cross-cutting issues ◦Additional fields Mapping awarded projects first two calls Implemented by AETS and Particip Funded by the European Union ENI CBC - Support to the preparation of programmes (SPP)

Support for TO1 Implemented by AETS and Particip Funded by the European Union ENI CBC - Support to the preparation of programmes (SPP)

Support for TO2 Implemented by AETS and Particip Funded by the European Union ENI CBC - Support to the preparation of programmes (SPP)

Support for TO3 Implemented by AETS and Particip Funded by the European Union ENI CBC - Support to the preparation of programmes (SPP)

Support for TO4 Implemented by AETS and Particip Funded by the European Union ENI CBC - Support to the preparation of programmes (SPP)

Support for TO5 Implemented by AETS and Particip Funded by the European Union ENI CBC - Support to the preparation of programmes (SPP)

Support for TO6 Implemented by AETS and Particip Funded by the European Union ENI CBC - Support to the preparation of programmes (SPP)

Support for TO7 Implemented by AETS and Particip Funded by the European Union ENI CBC - Support to the preparation of programmes (SPP)

Support for TO8 Implemented by AETS and Particip Funded by the European Union ENI CBC - Support to the preparation of programmes (SPP)

Support for TO9 Implemented by AETS and Particip Funded by the European Union ENI CBC - Support to the preparation of programmes (SPP)

Support for TO10 Implemented by AETS and Particip Funded by the European Union ENI CBC - Support to the preparation of programmes (SPP)

Concluding: Proposed TOs TO4 (Promotion of social inclusion and fight against poverty) ◦Development and/or access to social services ◦Integration of immigrants and vulnerable groups TO6 (Environmental protection, climate change adaptation and disasters) ◦Environmental protection ◦Energy efficiency ◦Sustainable waste / waste water management TO7 (Accessibility to the regions, development of transport and communication networks and systems) ◦Transport services (and small scale infrastructure) ◦ICT infrastructure Implemented by AETS and Particip Funded by the European Union ENI CBC - Support to the preparation of programmes (SPP)

Possible alternative TOs TO1 (Business and SME development) ◦Specific sectors (tourism, agriculture); Entrepreneurship TO2 (Education, research, technology and innovation) ◦Promotion of and support to research and innovation; Life-long learning TO3 (Local culture, historical heritage) ◦Promoting local culture and history TO5 (Support to local & regional good governance) ◦Capacity of local & regional authorities and communities; regional integration TO8 (Common challenges in safety and security) ◦Development of and access to health services Implemented by AETS and Particip Funded by the European Union ENI CBC - Support to the preparation of programmes (SPP)