Climate Change Projection in Japan and its Background Policy - Research Utilizing the Earth Simulator- Hiroki Kondo Frontier Research System for Global Change, Japan Outstanding research issues from the TAR Kyo-sei Project with the Earth Simulator Ongoing projects for climate change projection Global Warming Research Initiative under the Council for Science and Technology Policy (CSTP)

Further actions required by TAR Systematic observations and reconstructions: Modelling and process studies: - Improve understanding of the mechanisms and factors leading to changes in radiative forcing. - Understand and characterize the important unresolved processes and feedbacks, both physical and biogeochemical, in the climate system. - Improve methods to quantify uncertainties of climate projections and scenarios, including long-term ensemble simulations using complex models. - Improve the integrated hierarchy of global and regional climate models with a focus on the simulation of climate variability, regional climate changes and extreme events. - Link more effectively models of the physical climate and the biogeochemical system, and in turn improve coupling with descriptions of human activities.

(year) Earth Simulator Japan Foreign Countries Theoretical peak performance

Kyo-sei Project (Sustainable Co-existence Project on Human, Nature and the Earth) Kyo-sei Project (Sustainable Co-existence Project on Human, Nature and the Earth) Global projection related studies: ＊ High-resolution climate modeling for future climate change projection; on ES （ CCSR et al. ） ＊ Long-term stabilization experiment (CRIEPI et al. ） based upon the NCAR model; ＊ Integrated Earth system modeling for projecting Earth environment change （ FRSGC et al.); ＊ Super-high resolution global and regional climate modeling (MRI/JMA et al. ） ; and two other projects on physical processes Water cycle related studies(2): A Data assimilation study: and Other studies

High-resolution climate modeling and climate change projection under scenarios （ CCSR et al. ） To develop a high-resolution CAOGCM (AGCM with a resolution of T106 (~120 km) coupled with OGCM with a resolution of 1/4º in latitude and 1/6ºin longitude) from existing CCSR/NIES (Nationaol Institute for Environmental Studies) model. - The model has already been developed. To make projection experiments by the above model for major IPCC/SRES scenarios. - Experiments are being conducted and their results will be submitted to the archive center (PCMDI) under the coordination of IPCC/WG1 and WCRP/WGCM by 1 September. Cooperation with the Hadley Centre for inter-comparison for further improvement Further development of the model later: AGCM with resolution of T213 (~60 km) coupled withOGCM with resolution of 0.1º×0.1º,

IPCC SRES, stabilization and overshoot scenarios A1B→const B1→const Overshoot

Climate change projection with main focus on long-term stabilization (CRIEPI et al.) Climate change projection based upon the NCAR climate model - Long term projection under two stabilization emission scenarios with eventual 550 and 750 ppm CO2 concentratoins, and also under “Overshoot Scenario” - Experiments are underway to be submitted by 1 September

Integrated Earth system modeling for projecting Earth environment change （ FRSGC et al.) Main focus: Feed back effects of climate change to the concentrations of green house gases and other earth environment Projection with inclusion of carbon cycle, covering biospheric interaction between the atmosphere, ocean and land into the CCSR/NIES climate model. - Experiments are ongoing to contribute to the AR4 Integrated climate modeling to include a carbon-cycle model, atmospheric constituents model, and a biosphere model

Super-high resolution global and regional climate modeling (MRI/JMA ） Main Focus: Regional extreme events including tropical cyclones, East Asian monsoon (Baiu), severe rain storms under global climate change Modeling of a AGCM with a super-high horizontal resolution of about 20 km (TL959) and 60 vertical levels (L60) in the atmosphere. - The model is an unprecedented global climate model resolvable even the eye of a tropical cyclone. It has been developed. - Simulation experiments show reasonable results and projection experiments are being run through a time-slice method Modeling of a cloud resolvable non-hydrostatic regional atmospheric model with a resolution of a several kilometers in grid size. - This model with 5km grid size has simulated severe rainfall events reasonably. - Aerosondes and newly developed unmanned planes are being mobilized to make measurements for validation data.

Present Climate Simulation Annual Average: Projected Climate Annual Average: 63.25

Time-slice global warming experiment using an AGCM with 20-km horizontal resolution RR2002 Project MRI/JMA/AESTO

Council for Science and Technology Policy (CSTP) CSTP: established within the Cabinet Office in 2001, with Chairman (Prime Minister), 6 Ministers concerned and 8 Experts Prioritized Science and Technology Fields (4 fields): life science, information technologies, environment, and nano- technology Research Initiatives under the environment (5 subjects): G lobal Warming; Waste-free and Resource Recycling Technologies; Eco-harmonious Regeneration of River-basins and Urban areas; Chemical Substance Risk Management, and Global Water Cycle

Global Warming Research Initiative Promotion System for Global Warming Research Initiative Council for Science and Technology (CSTP) ： Prime Minister (Chair), related Ministers(6) and Experts(8 ) PT* for other areas Expert Panel on Promotion Strategy of Prioritized Areas *PT ： Project Team Environmental R&D Promotion PT* a CSTP Expert (Chair), 3 other CSTP experts, 6 Initiative chairs for Mitigation Technology Development （４ Programs ） （２ Programs ） for Climate Change Other Environmental Research Initiatives (4)

Programs under the Global Warming Research Initiative Programs in the Climate Change Research Area - Monitoring and Process Study - Projection Modeling and Climate Change Study - Impact and Risk Assessment - Mitigation Policy Mitigation Technology Development Area - Greenhouse Gas Fixation and Sequestration - Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction

- Coordination of ongoing specialized modeling under ministries and agencies - International cooperation with advanced modeling centers in EU, USA, … Ministry of Environment Program for Projection Modeling and Climate Change Study Projects under the funds of MLIT MEXT Focusing on - Impacts on Asian region - Social & Economic models - Impacts on human activities Focusing on - Utilization of the ES - Global climate change - Basic scientific findings Focussing on - Interaction with NWP modelling - Global and regional (over Japan) climate - meteorological and oceanographic events To Share findings in common parts of modelling Contribution to IPCC Verification by rebuilding paleoclimate Ocean Drilling Project MEXT Climate modeling for climate change projection