Measures of Non-Traditional Media Consumption During the 2008 Presidential Campaign MAPOR, Chicago 1:30pm – 3:00pm, November 21, 2009 Authors: J. Michael Dennis, Knowledge Networks Trevor Tompson, The Associated Press Mike Henderson, Harvard University Yelena Kruse, Knowledge Networks

Research Questions Who are the consumers of non-traditional media during the 2008 general election? What were their candidate preferences? Who did they vote for? Also: Who are the online donors to campaigns?

Data Source: AP-Yahoo! Longitudinal Election Panel Field period: Nov to Dec – 11-wave longitudinal design Wave1 baseline obtained 2,735 interviews Compressed schedule: ~ 4 weeks between waves Wave 7 field period 9/5 to 10/12/08 – source of independent var data 1,086 respondents completed all 11 waves Sample Source: KnowledgePanel WavesW1W2 W3W4W5W6W7W8W9W10W11 Samples Longitudinal XX Cross-sect. XXX

Data Collected in the Month After Labor Day Independent variable: Self-reported usage of Internet in the last month to do any of these 12 things: Read political news stories from a news website Visited candidates web sites Participated in message boards, chat rooms, or discussion groups about politics Gotten information about candidates issue positions Gotten information about when or where to vote Contributed money to a candidate or political cause Looked for more information about candidates positions on the issues Found out how the candidates were doing in public opinion polls Checked the accuracy of claims made by or about the candidates Watched video clips of a candidates television ads ed an election official Received about a political candidate

Data Sources Respondents grouped according to number of self-reported uses of the net for politics/election in last month: Net Haters 0 types used n=914 or 48% Net Friendly 1 to 4 types used n=662 or 34% Net Hypers 5 or more types usedn=347 or 18%

Use of Nontraditional Media Related to… Measured in the weeks after 2008 Labor Day: Candidate Preference Certainty of Candidate Preference Party ID Political ideology Age Pet ownership! Measured immediately after the election: Presidential vote choice

Results Data from Post Labor Day Wave 7 Survey Field Period 9/5/08 to 10/12/2008 Most Interviews Obtained between 9/5 and 9/12 All data are weighted using poststratification weights

Candidate Preference – Or Lack Thereof 22% of Obama supporters are Net Hypers compared to gen pop percentage of 18%; Undecideds mostly Net Haters – only one in 20 chi-square p-value <.01

Certainty of Candidate Preference Net Hypers slightly more likely to be certain to vote for their favorite candidate – consistent with expectation that Net Hypers are engaged in politics – however, many still persuadable voters! chi-square p-value <.05

Party ID: Giving New Meaning to Net Neutrality Dems and Rep equally likely to be Net Hypers; undecideds less likely to be such chi-square p-value <.01

Party ID: Similar Online Donation Rates About one in 10 Dems and Reps gave online in past year – about the same

Political Ideology: A Result! Most powerful result in the analyses: 42% of Extreme Liberals are Net Hypers! Extreme Conservatives also more likely to be Net Hypers, compared to gen pop mean of 18% chi-square p-value <.01

Liberals Donated More Frequently Online Extreme liberals almost three times more likely to report donating online in past year. Moderates hardly do so at all. chi-square p-value <.01

Age…Surprisingly Not a Factor For all the talk about young adults being turned on by the web….not a strong measured impact chi-square p-value >.1

And Pet Ownership Doesnt Matter Either! So much for pet-based political segmentations! chi-square p-value >.1

Results: Actual Vote Choice Measured on the Same Sample in the week after the General Election

Obama Wins (Again): VOTE by Net Type Obama voters significantly more likely to be Net Hypers – slightly stronger effect than seen in October candidate preference measure chi-square p-value < 0.1

More Obama Voters Donated Online 11% of Obama voters donated online, as measured in the Sept-Oct 2008 wave -- slightly more likely to have donated online chi-square p-value < 0.1

Final Thoughts

Insights Hyper Net users, as consumers of nontraditional media, represent a significant segment of the electorate Supporters of both parties report similar levels of use of nontraditional media and online donation Extreme liberals and conservative both report high levels of use of nontraditional media, with liberals actively donating money online Undecideds during the campaign and nonvoters less likely to use nontraditional media Obama turned-out voters slightly more likely to be Net Hypers and online donors, consistent with popular wisdom of his campaign