Are public transport systems influencing spatial change? Presentation at session: public transport and spatial transformation South African transport conference 08 July 2019

Background Yet another piece of the puzzle - are public transport systems influencing spatial change in South Africa? Work in progress paper chronicles my experiences in a 5 year program of leading the public transport pillar in a program of explicit spatial transformation at the Cities Support Program. Transport was one of a number of “pieces of the puzzle” within the program aimed at changing urban space.

Structure 1. Then Theory of Change for the CSP 2. Engaging the Sector 3. Some important conclusions

Theory of Change Absence of the “urban dividend” from SA city growth Challenges in city governance, service delivery and spatial form deepen economic challenges in cities, and result in growing risks Targeted interventions on: governance, fiscal and financial reform and policy: lead to compaction, equitable urban growth and poverty alleviation.

Public transport manifests the problem powerfully … Raskin (2017)

Public transport manifests the problem powerfully … Raskin (2017)

Public transport manifests the problem powerfully … Raskin (2017)

Public transport manifests the problem powerfully … TRANSMILENIO (BOGOTA, COLOMBIA) REA VAYA (JOHANNESBURG, SA)- Data 2014 METROLINEA (BUCARAMANGA, COLOMBIA) Raskin (2017)

1. Then Theory of Change for the CSP 2. Engaging the Sector 3. Some important conclusions

1. First things first: immediate challenges PTNG framework changes with requirement of ‘fiscally and financially sustainable’ IPTNs Municipalities demonstrate sufficient local capacity to implement and operate Formula allocation based on demand - disincentivise “going large” Incentive scheme for allocation Broaden range of transport services to be supported by the funding beyond BRT systems “revealed patterns of expenditure on inappropriate and fiscally unsustainable transport systems”

Intense work with cities and national department on planning and budget process Created a guideline for IPTN formulation Requiring multiyear financial plan formulation (MYFIN) A series of toolkits for plan and budget analysis and grant allocation Subject Matter Expert appointment

Example of multiyear plan template Presentation of revised 2018/19 PTNG template Complete the Appendix 2 Multi-year Financial Plan in detail in the supplied spreadsheet. DO NOT alter the spreadsheet in any way by reformatting cells, adding / subtracting rows or changing/over-writing formulas. If the template is altered in any way, it will be returned and will have to be re-submitted. Please insert a pdf version of the final spreadsheet in the following pages of this report. This will serve as a hard copy record of the numbers in case the spreadsheet becomes corrupted.

Example of assessment toolkits for performance

Example of city assessments …

Additional areas of expenditure inefficiency work High costs in various areas of implementation – work with cities on station management, ITS, bus operations Inefficient fiscal allocation - modal/governmental spheres - (PTOG, PTNG, PRASA, TRP & roads): resulted in now ongoing public transport finance policy process being driven by the NDoT Stalled devolution process – efforts towards practical integration of various transport through IPTN Failing rail system.

2. Spatial targeting through the BEPP The Built Environment Performance Plan (BEPP) Targeting and prioritising catalytic infrastructure investment Fiscal alignment & integration with other key sectors (housing, economic development, transport) Harnessing private sector funding through project preparation Explicitly measuring it.

IPTNs largely aligned with other catalytic investment … Comprehensive Assessment of 13 city IPTNS & Spatial Strategies IPTN city analysis showed a broad alignment with the catalytic projects Modelling was aligned to the SDF IPTNs use the long-range spatial scenario, as embedded in the SDF, to very broadly drive public transport action

Challenge of project preparation for the catalytic projects Intergovernmental project alignment and capital funding for projects was getting better Identifying projects to be delivered within the space by other government institutions Alignment of funding streams Main challenge was obtaining private sector funding To achieve real scale required funding outside government Well prepared bankeable projects were always a challenge despite availability of project preparation funding

Assessing outcomes was a challenge Influences of transport investment not tested & spatial effects not measured Exceptions: Cape Town sophisticated modelling - various land use end states for public transport Developed a series of simple outcome indicators Impact Integrated Outcomes Functional Outcomes Functional Outputs Functional Activities Functional Inputs Costs Reporting Reform Project Cities reporting on 2572 Indicators Current Emphasis at bottom

1. Then Theory of Change for the CSP 2. Engaging the Sector 3. Some important conclusions

Important conclusions Sectoral implementation issues trump spatial change – both at national and city level It is currently ultimately about rewarding delivery Capacitated cities that control transport (and built environment functions) are best placed Devolution & city subsidiarity – levers and instruments to create change Using the full spectrum of public transport investment is the big challenge Potential of PRASA

Important conclusions We do not have enough experience in understanding influences of transport investment in space Interesting and emerging work SACN, CSIR etc Influences of fiscal system – big question of the car and road building Current public transport finance policy process at NDOT? No one is dedicated to holding the center in terms of long term spatial change New IUDF CoGTA focus Achieving scale – how do we get greater buy in from private sector

Michael Kihato michael.kihato@planninghub.org