Enock Nyorekwa Twinoburyo, PhD Senior Economist

Report scope Progress Forecasts Constraints Governance Financing Synergies

Africa Starting Disadvantage Low income trap: 28 countries are LICs 56% of the poor in Africa 228 Million poor 1990 & 410 Million in 2015 37 - low Human Development Lowest tax effort Just about 2% of global GDP Motivation for 3 year reality check: is Africa Converging to others and 2030 targets? AFRICA 2030 - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS - THREE-YEAR REALITY CHECK

AFRICA 2030 - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS - THREE-YEAR REALITY CHECK Where do we stand… Average growth is below the 7% per annum Social inclusion struggle  2nd most unequal region in world  Education –enrolment good but slow on completion  Healthcare –Maternal mortality higher global average Africa status Only 40% of the SDGS indicators have data Only 50% of African countries have comparable surveys over last two decades Both indicator and methodology framework remain incomplete 22% of African nations have independent statistics offices Data On growth, anything less than 7% means there are output gaps (difference between potential and actual growth). Only 7 countries have already met the Maternal mortality rate.. AFRICA 2030 - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS - THREE-YEAR REALITY CHECK

Status Cont … Africa partly on track on Gender Equality, Climate and life on land. No data for SDGs 10, 11 and 12 Social inclusion progress outstripped by population growth (Over 33 million babies every year) 280 million malnourished 63 million children stunted Poverty and inequality remain widely prevalent. Forecasts SDGs (1,2,3,4, 5,6 and 7)  North Africa likely to meet all  Central Africa unlikely to meet all.  The other regions modestly on track on enrolment, child mortality, and access to drinking water Overall, considering the goals in totality, all regions except North Africa are fairly off track. AFRICA 2030 - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS - THREE-YEAR REALITY CHECK

AFRICA 2030 - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS - THREE-YEAR REALITY CHECK Mapping SDGs data gap While there are 96 indicators nearly consistent with indicators used in the SDG index, not all 96 indicators have comparable data across African countries. That is why additional indicators are adopted for SDG index! AFRICA 2030 - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS - THREE-YEAR REALITY CHECK

Forecast 2030… Poverty Malnutrition rates Enrolment rates Child mortality Access to electricity Access to drinking water Overall, considering the goals in totality, all regions except North Africa are fairly off track. AFRICA 2030 - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS - THREE-YEAR REALITY CHECK

Finance at glance (annual) Domestic revenues US$500 billion ODA US$50 billion FDI slightly less than US$50 billion Remittances in US$60 billion Over US$70 billion in Illicit flows mainly trade invoicing Financing gap for SDGs estimated at US $ 500 bn to US $ 1.2 trillion (Over 20% of GDP) Annual Revenue gap – 5% of GDP medium term ODA growth slower than historical average Remittances growing but cost more than twice of SDG target of 3% FDI highly volatile NDBs are small and under capitalized US$300 trillion is being in the form of developed assets that offer low returns (United Nations, 2018d). Africa financial flows are as much as additional funds needed. ODA in terms of per capita and real terms has reduced. AFRICA 2030 - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS - THREE-YEAR REALITY CHECK

Governance Framework for SDGs SDG Framework in place but lack operational and implementation framework Lack of clarity on accountability and enforcement mechanisms for SDGs Voluntary reporting is incomplete, not comprehensive, not comparable and irregular Weaknesses from design to implementation Governance Framework for SDGs Governance framework is stuck at high level ( Island) and main land – continent and countries have not fully embraced AFRICA 2030 - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS - THREE-YEAR REALITY CHECK

AFRICA 2030 - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS - THREE-YEAR REALITY CHECK

Governance and SDGs Correlation Challenges continued … Governance and SDGs Correlation Low score on both indices Empirical evidence also supports this correlation. For example recent IMF paper the least corrupt governments collect 4 percent of GDP more in tax revenues than countries at the same level of economic development with the highest levels of corruption. https://blogs.imf.org/2019/05/28/corruption-and-your-money/ AFRICA 2030 - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS - THREE-YEAR REALITY CHECK

Take aways Africa is way off track Current efforts necessary but not sufficient Weakness across the entire SDG ecosystem for continent There is an urgent need to compensate for lost time AFRICA 2030 - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS - THREE-YEAR REALITY CHECK

Call for action (Re-double efforts)… Governance Harmonized framework at continent level for follow up on SDGs and AU 2063 Integration of SDGs in global trade, investment , financial and Development policies Regional collaborative exchanges for lesson learning Annual country based monitoring frameworks encouraged SDG based budgeting encouraged Data Political, regulatory and financial support for statistical services. Embrace online and digital monitoring systems for SDGs Leverage international and regional capacity building initiatives to country level ODA for statistics is warranted Financing Annual data tracking mechanism for all financial streams Global call to meet to the 0.7% of ODA by OECD Private sector call on 0.3% of GDP or more National financing frameworks Strengthen Domestic revenue reforms Capitalise National Development Banks Social Inclusion Africa Centered Social inclusion focused funds Political support for population growth control Demographic reforms undertaken. Population sensitive policy Budget reforms undertaken. Annual budget – earmarked protection of population growth. We will work with countries and other stakeholders to develop concrete action plans… Self reliance through partnerships AFRICA 2030 - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS - THREE-YEAR REALITY CHECK

Africa Rest of World SDG targets Africa can do it … As the Japanese proverb goes: “Cross a shallow river as if it were deep.” We shall leave no One behind AFRICA 2030 - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS - THREE-YEAR REALITY CHECK

Thank you for your attention Enock Nyorekwa Twinoburyo, PhD Senior Economist As the Japanese proverb goes: “Cross a shallow river as if it were deep.” Africa SDGs are a shallow river in Global Context As the Japanese proverb goes: “Cross a shallow river as if it were deep.” Thank you for your attention