Evaluation from a Corridor perspective: methods and results Merja Penttinen, VTT 20-7-2019

NEXT-ITS corridor overview Total length ~3000km NEXT-ITS 1&2 services coverage ~25 000km Main measures improved TMC operations Received CEF-funding Utrecht, 14 and 15 November

Services vs. measures, example NEXT-ITS 2 Service(s) improved by the measure Measure(s) per Country Forecast and real-time event Information Service Traffic Condition and Travel Time Information Service Weather Information Service Safety Related Traffic Information Service Dynamic Lane Management Variable Speed Limits Incident Warning and Management Ramp Metering Traffic Management Plans for Corridors and Networks Measure 1 – TMC renewal and adaptation to corridor management and control systems, FI X   Measure 2 – Motorway Control System, SE Measure 3 - Integrated Traffic Management, SE Measure 4 - New Traffic Management Centre in “The Traffic Tower” in Copenhagen, DK Measure 5 - Traffic Management Plans and Ramp Metering Systems, DE Measure 6 - Traffic Centre Schleswig-Holstein, DE Measure 7 - DATEX-II improvements for Action C, NO Utrecht, 14 and 15 November

Measures vs. services details Finnish example: Altogether 6 services were covered by one measure: improving TMC operations (new integrated central traffic management system) Benefiting 5 different networks: The most improved one including all 6 services The widest network including only weather information service -> CBA calculations included all benefiting networks Utrecht, 14 and 15 November

CBA calculations - overview Central system improvements make the calculations challenging One cannot really compare before – after situations as such Benefit estimates always require a lot of background information and expert evaluations Relevant ex-post evaluation studies were searched and summarized as a background National unit values vary quite a lot Utrecht, 14 and 15 November

Expert part of the evaluation Utrecht, 14 and 15 November

National unit values Utrecht, 14 and 15 November

Overall result of NEXT-ITS2 The total estimated effects of the services are considerable The total value of the annual benefits in 2017 will be circa 15 M€. Implementation costs are of circa 33 M€ including VAT and thereby comparable to the benefits (the costs without VAT amount to almost 27 M€). The annual operation and maintenance costs were estimated to be 3 M€, -> the NEXT-ITS 2 can be assessed to be socio-economically profitable. Utrecht, 14 and 15 November

Financial support as an enabler/driver CEF funding requires projects to be deployed even without EU funding 10 – 20% additional funding helps in Measures to cover more services -> better impacts in networks, of even new roads to be covered Service quality to be improved -> potential enhancement of effects Services to be deployed faster -> benefits to be reached faster One could estimate that in other types of projects receiving more remarkable support -> support has even bigger role as an enabler Utrecht, 14 and 15 November

Discussion of NEXT-ITS2 evaluation methodology The sensitivity analysis shows that the benefits calculated vary a lot dependent on the most important input parameters. However, it can be concluded that even with conservative estimates, NEXT-ITS 2 has a positive net impact. It needs to be pointed out that the effect estimates are based on a desk-top analysis, which needs to be compared to the actual statistics from the NEXT-ITS 2 corridor and the national networks affected. Utrecht, 14 and 15 November

Conclusions It is clear that the effects of this kind of services are extremely difficult to measure (ex-post) especially in this era of technology disruption due to connected and automated driving, the internet of things, digitalization, etc. Thereby, even the ex-post evaluation needs to be accompanied with a desk-top analysis similar to the ex-ante assessment reported here. Utrecht, 14 and 15 November

Utrecht, 14 and 15 November