Importance of monthly statistics on Natural Gas Seminar Compilation of Natural Gas Statistics 27 February 2012 United Nations, New York Mieke Reece Oil and Gas Statistics IEA Energy Data Centre

Overview What is natural gas The importance and use of natural gas in the world The outlook for Natural Gas The need for monthly data IEA’s monthly gas data collection system

What is natural gas? Natural gas comprises several gases, but consists mainly of methane. It can be in gaseous form or in liquid state (LNG) LNG is liquefied natural gas that has been converted temporarily to liquid form for ease of storage or transport. It is condensed into a liquid at close to atmospheric pressure by cooling it to −162 °C (−260 °F).

Overview What is natural gas The importance and use of natural gas in the world The outlook for Natural Gas The need for monthly data IEA’s monthly gas data collection system

World - Share of natural gas in the energy mix Increase in the share of natural gas in the world

World – Use of natural gas Natural gas use mainly for power generation In the other category, gas is used mainly for residential consumption

Who are the big players in the gas market?

1971-2010 51% 28%

World Regional Growth Natural Gas Consumption 2009

Overview What is natural gas The importance and use of natural gas in the world The outlook for Natural Gas The need for monthly data IEA’s monthly gas data collection system

The future of gas ? – A growing market Global gas demand is expected to grow by 2% per year(*) (*) WEO - current policies scenario

Natural gas – why is it an attractive fuel? Reserves – plenty available, about 60 years R/P Production techniques – new production methods, more efficient and less expensive Transport (LNG) Energy security: several aspects : Diversify away from oil Increase security if indigenous production of gas Shale gas Clean fuel – CO2 emissions lower than for coal and oil

Overview What is natural gas The importance and use of natural gas in the world The outlook for Natural Gas The need for monthly data IEA’s monthly gas data collection system

What data are collected on an annual basis? Natural gas - supply and consumption Pipe line LNG Transformation Exports Stock Build Energy Distribution Losses Marketed Production Inland Consumption Transport Imports Stock Draw LNG Pipe line Residential Commercial Agriculture Industry

Why are annual data not enough? Natural gas is very seasonal - swings in monthly consumption are enormous Natural gas market changing from a regional market to a global market (mainly because of LNG) Energy security reasons: timely data is essential if there is an international gas crisis Gas market transparency: the gas market needs more transparency as production, trade flows and consumption are not available for the world on a monthly basis.

Seasonality in gas demand

Natural gas is becoming a global market Trade of natural gas is expanding Particularly LNG market: more than doubled in 10 years More sources of LNG (e.g. Norway, Russia) More importers of LNG ( e.g. Brazil, Chile) LNG can be transported all over the world Spot markets and hubs are developing Many future projects in the pipeline: liquefaction terminals, regasification units etc

Monthly data essential for energy security Countries need to know how dependent they are from certain import sources In the past: long term contracts with a few suppliers Now : some long term gas, but peak demand is often met by spot purchases of LNG. Gas storage and stock levels important to deal with seasonal demand Annual data is not timely enough to monitor the gas markets.

A few recent examples February 2012 Extreme cold weather spell in Europe: Supplies from Russia were reduced by 10% for a few days, before returning to normal levels. Several countries had historic high consumption and needed to compensate Russian gas from other sources. Crisis measures had to be taken in several European countries: Poland, Italy, Romania, Greece etc. Ukraine – Russia dispute in January 2009 A 3-week disruption, the largest gas crisis in Europe’s history with a total loss of more than 5 bcm for Europe and some 2 bcm for Ukraine. To be able to monitor these types of crises annual data are not sufficient – more timely monthly data are essential

Monthly data for investment planning Monthly gas demand highly sensitive to weather and temperature There is a need to balance supply and demand at any point of time during the year. Decisions on gas storage and investments in infrastructure are based on monthly data.

Monthly data for gas market transparency OECD countries report monthly natural gas data to IEA Growing share of gas demand is from non-OECD countries (in 2010 – 51% and by 2035 expected to be 61%) There is a large gap in monthly gas market information for the non-OECD countries There is therefore a need to fill this data gap which can be accomplished by the 7 international organisations collecting

IEA’s monthly gas data collection Monthly Gas Statistics collected since January 1984 Data on Production, trade, stock changes and consumption Trade by origin and destination Collected for M-2 Gas trade flows Objective: to monitor physical gas trade flows in Europe Launched to solve problems with traditional trade reporting Gas Jodi Started in October 2010 Data for M-1

Natural gas – monthly versus annual Pipe line LNG Transformation Exports Stock Build Energy Distribution Losses Marketed Production Inland Consumption Transport Imports Stock Draw LNG Pipe line Residential Commercial Agriculture Industry Annual data Monthly data

Monthly Gas Trade Flows Project Entry Exit Monthly Data

Monthly Gas Data - GTF 3. The Monthly Gas Trade Flows To improve transparency in the European gas market, the IEA has been collecting monthly gas flow data on an entry and exit point basis (physical flows) for winter and has made it available on an interactive map. Clicking on border points and countries will show additional gas information. You can also explore other options as provided by the software, for example the full screen mode by clicking at the bottom of the map on 3. The Monthly Gas Trade Flows

Free on the iea website: http://www.iea.org/gtf/index.asp

Monthly Gas data – Gas JODI 4. GAS JODI - monthly gas data for M-1 Only one NEW Item!

Thank you !