GOFC/GOLD (Global Observations of Forest Cover/Global Observations of Land Cover Dynamics) – Fire : an Overview Chris Justice Ivan Csiszar (University of Maryland, USA)

What is GOFC/GOLD? an ambitious, multifaceted international strategy to bring the Earths forests and land cover under continuous observation a coordinated program of activities to ensure that earth observation and other data are available and used effectively for global monitoring of terrestrial resources and the study of global change an international organization of space agencies and end users working together a long term process of building an improved match between data products and user needs a network of participants implementing coordinated demonstration and operational projects a vision to share data, information and knowledge, leading to informed action all of the above

Background to GOFC Developed originally under the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) initially as a pilot to test the concept of an Integrated Global Observing System IGOS goals –To improve use of Earth Observation data to address major problems of global concern; –To improve coordination of national programs; –To improve co-operation between providers and users of Earth Observation data for regional and global applications. Has become one of the Panels of the Global Terrestrial Observing System GTOS –Helping to address the Carbon Theme of the IGOS Partners

GOFC/GOLD: General Goals Identify gaps and overlaps in current and planned earth observation satellite programs and help resolve them; Promote standardized regional data products and accuracy assessment standards, which are necessary for inter-comparison of regional studies and compilation of global data sets; Use data from multiple sensors with in-situ data, to produce validated information products satisfying clearly identified requirements of user agencies and research groups; Stimulate advances in the utilization, management and dissemination of large volume datasets; Encourage the increased operational provision and use of earth observation data for decision-making at national, regional, and global levels. Bring about the implementation of systems that provide both research and operational information on a regular and sustained basis

Program Status Panel of the Global Terrestrial Observing System –FAO –Secretariat, John Latham GOFC/GOLD Secretariat: Canadian Forest Service –New Executive Director: Michael Brady, Land Cover Implementation Team: –Co-Chairs: David Skole (MSU) and Chris Schmullius (Frederick Schiller University Jena, Germany) –New project office funded by ESA Fire Implementation Team –Co-chairs: Chris Justice (UMD) and Johan Goldammer, (Global Fire Monitoring Center (GFMC) Max Planck Institute for Chemistry).

The Organization of GOFC Scientific and Technology Board Implementation Teams, Activities and Projects * Fire Monitoring and Mapping…….. * Cover Characteristics and Changes.. * Biophysical Parameters…………… Regional Activities and Networks Regional Activities and Networks Collaborations e.g. WGCV LPV, UN ISDR, EARSEL SIG Fire

Importance of GOFC Regional Activities Implementation of a large part of the global change research agenda is at the regional scale – processes, impacts, adaptation, mitigation, feedbacks –e.g. Carbon Cycle, Water Cycle, Land Use Change, Ecosystems Most monitoring and resource management undertaken at the national/regional scale – with most decision making at the local scale > generally poor communication with the global change research community GOFC/GOLD Regional Networks in development –Forum for data producers and users to interact to assess current data availability and existing data collection systems and proven research –Forum for global change and resource managers to improve communication –Forum to define and prioritize additional regional data requirements –Forum to highlight regional priorities –Mechanism for involving regional scientists and users in product accuracy assessment (validation) –Mechanism for lateral transfer of technology and applications experience.

Focus of GOFC/GOLD is on establishing operational capabilities Presents major challenges since –there have been relatively few national or international operational organizations responsible for terrestrial observations (cf. oceans and atmosphere) – no L in NOAA –no obvious transition mechanisms to transfer proven and needed research observing system capabilities into the operational domain –requirements for observations not well developed despite efforts of GCOS/GTOS TOPC –despite considerable societal relevance and the information needs the land user community is extremely diverse not well organized –the international organizations concerned with land monitoring and management do not have a strong voice for the securing their observational needs

Some Encouraging Signs Meteorological observation agencies are beginning to extend remit to the land (e.g. NOAA and Eumetsat) ?? Following 2 nd Adequacy Report Conference of the Parties (COP) of FCCC is requesting an operational plan from GCOS and this includes terrestrial observations. Proposals exist for an international coordination mechanism laying down standards for observations and their validation. VIIRS on NPOESS will serve as an operational moderate resolution land imager (NPP VIIRS prototyping). Proposed new Integrated Global Observations Strategy Partnership Theme on the Land (Integrated Global Observations of the Land) GEO appears to have an emerging land component

Some Discouraging Signs The fine resolution observing capability of ETM / Landsat is seriously compromised. –Other sensors exist but no sensible acquisition strategy –No plans yet for an operational ETM –Instrument could be placed on an NPOESS Lite Polar Orbiting Land Observer (POLO) Core-Funding of GOFC/GOLD regional networks slow to materialize

Specification of requirement Observations available (as data sets) Research/ prototype product created Algorithms/ assimilation established Validation procedures established and applied Product adopted and distributed by operational agency Routine quality assurance & validation Further improvements needed to meet requirements? Template for GOFC/GOLD to operationalize its products

Progress in meeting our goals

Importance of Product Validation Importance of providing products of known accuracy (validated products) for both science and applications Product validation is becoming an integral part of earth observing systems – new satellite products in process of being validated GOFC/GOLD close partnership with CEOS Cal Val WG -Land Products Validation (LPV) Accuracy of products may vary by regional conditions Workshop on validation of global classification products hosted at BU held at the beginning of February Workshop on validation of continuous fields proposed to be held at UMD late 2004 Regional burned area validation workshop Freemantle, Australia Oct 2004 Australasia/SE Asia Network Regional active fire validation workshop in Brazil in conjunction with the LBA conference – July 2004

GOFC/GOLD-Fire

GOFC/GOLD – Fire: Implementation Team Members Olivier Arino, ESA/ESRIN, Italy (ATSR, Envisat, GLOBCARB) Emilio Chuvieco, U. Alcala, Spain ( Fire Danger/Med - S.Am Network) Chris Elvidge, NOAA/NGDC, USA (DMSP, SEAsia Network) Evgeny Loupian, SRI, Russia (DIS, NERIN Network) Johann Goldammer, (Co-Chairman), GFMC, Germany (UN ISDR) Jean-Marie Grégoire, JRC, Italy (Global Burned Area, W. Afr Netw) Chris Justice (Co-Chairman), UMd, USA (MODIS, NPP VIIRS, SAFNET/OSFAC) Tm Lynham, CFS, Canada – Fire-M3 Detection and Fire Danger Rating Mastura Mahmud, UKM, Malaysia (SEA Network) Dieter Oertel, DLR, Germany (BIRD, Validation, Fire Characterization) Joao Pereira, IBAMA, Brazil (Pan Amazon,Network, Multi-source Data/Validation) Elaine Prins, NOAA/NESDIS/ASPT, USA (GOES, Geostationary Network) Anatoly Sukhinin, RAS, Russia (AVHRR, NERIN Fire Monitoring) Ivan Csiszar (UMd, USA) - Fire IT Executive Officer (NPP VIIRS, ASTER) Regional Network Leads –Pauline Dube (SAFNET), Mastura Mahmud (SEARIN), Evgeny Loupian (NERIN), JF Bizenga (OSFAC) Emerging Networks – C. America, S. America, Australasia, Mediterranean, UN Fire Network

GOFC/GOLD-Fire Implementation Strategic Elements –Assemble and Document Observation Requirements (w. partners / users) present the case to space agencies (CEOS) –Establish GOFC/GOLD Fire Community goals –Help the fire community develop a strong enough lobby to achieve the goals and secure the observations it needs Assist with advocacy for the necessary satellite and ground based observations (experimental and operational) –Develop a regional network infrastructure of providers, brokers and users, improving understanding of access to and use of the data, formulate their requirements –Establish strategic partnerships with other organizations of fire information users to help achieve the program goals

GOFC/GOLD-Fire Strategic Partnerships – UN ISDR WG IV on Wildland Fire (Fire Management and Policy, Regional Network Support) – UN FAO FRA and Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (Global Assessments – Fire ) – CEOS Disaster Management Support Group (Fire Management Information Requirements) – CEOS Land Product Validation Working Group (Validation Protocols) – IGAC BIBEX (Fire and Atmospheric Chemistry) –EARSeL Special Interest Group on Forest Fire (European Research) –ACRSP (Australian Remote Sensing Research Groups) –World Fire Monitoring Center (Global Fire Outreach) –SELPER (South American Remote Sensing Research Groups) –Selected Individual Fire Research and Management Organizations critical to meeting GOFC Fire goals (e.g. USFS, IBAMA, CFS, CSIRO) –Regional Science Initiatives (e.g. SAFARI, LBA, NEESPI, NACP)

GOFC/GOLD - Fire Implementation Tactical Elements (steps towards meeting the objectives) –Assessment of current capabilities, benchmarking of data provision and use –Document the necessary improvements or new capabilities – observations / delivery systems / data or information use / decision support systems –Demonstrate the improvement through Operational R and D –New methods or technique development –Product validation (accuracy assessment) Operational Prototyping –Establish observation, data and information flows –Establish or improve the operational elements –Promote systematic product validation

GOFC/GOLD- Fire Implementation Approach –Where possible build on existing structures and activities –Hold thematic and regional meetings to: develop priorities and approaches, foster cooperation and coordination and explore opportunities for meeting our program goals –Encourage and promote the development of projects and proposals that help meet our program goals –Establish open communications on the various on- going and planned activities at the global and regional level – improve coordination

GOFC/GOLD-Fire Goals Increase user awareness –develop an increased understanding of the utility of satellite fire products and their use for global change research, resource management and policy (UN, Regional, National, Local) Establish a geostationary global fire network –providing operational high temporal resolution standard fire products of known accuracy Secure operational polar orbiters with adequate fire monitoring capability –providing operational moderate resolution long-term global fire products to meet user requirements and serving a network of distributed ground stations –providing improved fire products (fuel moisture content/active fire/burned area/fire characterization) in a timely fashion –Providing operational high resolution acquisition allowing active fire, burned area, fire characterization and post-fire assessments

GOFC/GOLD-Fire Goals (Contd) Determine product accuracies –operational network of fire validation sites and protocols established providing accuracy assessment for operational products and a test bed for new or enhanced products – leading to standard products of known accuracy Develop a set of standard fire danger / susceptibility models –combining meteorological data, remote sensing, and ground based information Develop fire emissions product suites –providing annual emission estimates of known accuracy with the associated input data Establish enhanced user products and data access – Operational multi-source fire / GIS products, Web based data access, Improved national fire reporting, Fire characterization Promote experimental fire observation systems and related research –in new areas focused on meeting current information gaps

Outreach – Fire Web Site REDLaTIF – South America Key sections also in Spanish and Russian

GOFC/GOLD-Fire Workshops and Meetings GOFC Fire Coordination Workshop – JRC Ispra (1999) S Africa Miombo/GOFC Fire Workshop – Matopos (1999) SAFNET Burned Area Validation Protocols. Zambia (2000) SAFNET Fire Planning Meeting, Gaberone, Botswana, July 2002 Southeast Asia GOFC Fire Workshop – Tokyo (2001) WGISS TF GOFC Workshops – Bangkok/ Tokyo (2000/2001) GOFC presentation / discussion – EARSEL SIG Fire / Paris (2001) GOFC Fire Validation Workshop – Lisbon, Portugal (July 01) GOFC SEARIN Fire Validation Workshop, Thailand (Jan 02) GOFC/GOLD SEARIN Fire Validation Workshop, Tokyo (Jan 03) GOFC/GOLD Fire Presentation / discussions – SIVAM/ Manaos, Brazil (Mar 02) GOFC/GOLD – IGAC/BIBEX Workshop on Fire Emissions Models – Maryland, USA (July 02) GOFC/GOLD – I BFRA Joint Meeting Forest Cover and Fire – Krasnoyarsk, Siberia, (July 02) GOFC/GOLD Fire presentation and discussion – SELPER/Cochabamba, Bolivia, (Nov 02) GOFC/GOLD LBA Fire Validation Workshop, Belo Horizonte, Brazil (April 03) GOFC/EARSeL SIG Forest Fires - Joint Workshop on Innovative Concepts and Methods on Fire Danger Estimation, Ghent, Belgium (June 2003) Far East Fire Network Workshop w. World Bank, USFS – Khabarovsk, Russia (Sept 03) GOFC/GOLD Fire Presentation, Sydney, Australia, (Oct 03) GOFC/NERIN NEESPI Planning Meeting, St Petersburg (Feb 04) SEARIN Burned Area Validation Workshop, Malaysia (May 04) GOFC/GOLD Geostationary Network Planning Meeting, Darmstadt, Germany (March 04) GOFC/GOLD ACRSP Joint Workshop – Fremantle, Australia (Oct 04) Annual GOFC-Fire Meeting

Some Recent Developments in Fire Monitoring Web-based Active Fire Data availability from a number of systems (GOES, DMSP, AVHRR, MODIS) –Web Mapping Systems now combining RS/GIS (MODIS Firemaps, Sentinel) –Multi-source Active Fire Data being combined through the Internet ( NOAA NESDIS / CONABIO/ IBAMA et al.) Global Long -Term Active Fire Records being established (AATSR, TRMM, MODIS, AVHRR-Regional) Near Real -Time Daily Global Active Fire Product (MODIS Rapid Response) Increasing Emphasis given to Product Validation (Accuracy Assessment) - the CEOS LPV Working Group – Regional Network Activities –Brazil, SE Asia, Mexico, Southern Africa, Russia, Australia Global and Regional Burned Area Prototype Products being generated and distributed (Vegetation, ATSR, MODIS) High Spatial Resolution Thermal Sensors (BIRD, ASTER) – fire characterization research and proposing future missions Experimental Global and Regional Emission Products using GOES (nrt), TRMM, Vegetation, MODIS fire data – Direct observation AIRS, MOPPITT Fire included in the next generation of operational sensors (NPP/NPOESS VIIRS) – but less mature and lower priority than other operational products Elements of a Global Geostationary Fire Network under development

Product Status Reporting Increasing attention given to product status and accuracy assessment and reporting– signs of a maturing community System proposed by CEOS WGCV LPV –Beta – algorithms run – known problems with the data set –Provisional – product generated but unvalidated –includes product evaluation and confidence building by intercomparison with other unvalidated data sets or visual inspection –Validated (using independent data sets of known accuracy, results published in peer reviewed literature) Validated Stage 1 - targets of opportunity, one or two areas/cases Validated Stage 2 – systematic sample of tests over the range of conditions for which the product is provided Validated Stage 3 – global statistically robust accuracy assessment Accuracy Assessment essential for global change research and will help application users determine product utility

CY Earliest Availability S/C Deliveries DMSP NPOESS C3 POES EOS-Aqua NPOESS C2 or C1 N Earliest Need to back-up launch F20 NPOESS DMSP POES NPP EOS-Terra METOP NPOESS C1 or C2 F16 N M F17 F19 F15 F18 L (16) WindSat/Coriolis POES Satellite Transition Schedule (9 March 2001) Slopes indicate 10-90% need (NPOESS GAP 5b) Projected End of Life based on 50% Need Local Equatorial Crossing Time Courtesy – Bob Murphy, NASA, NPP Project

Priority Issues for this Meeting Document the rationale and requirements for a near real time global geostationary fire network utlizing –GOES, MSG, MTSAT capabilities Identify the elements of such an international network –Instruments –Algorithms –Standardization of products –Data access –Validation strategy Identify the steps that would be needed to implement a global geostationary fire monitoring system –Technical –Programmatic Develop a strategy to involve the agencies to secure such a system Identify additional R and D that is needed to enhance current systems beyond existing capabilities to prepare for a global system