ASEAN and the logic of “three-level games” By Keith Preble

Southeast Asia: Maritime and the Mainland

South China Sea & Maritime Southeast Asia

Claims in the South China Sea

South China Sea Dispute Philippines v. China at the Permanent Court of Arbitration (2016) Utilizing dispute mechanisms in the UN Convention on Law of the Seas (which China and all countries in SE Asia have signed) Non-binding arbitration ruled in favor of the Philippines (China did not represent itself) No other country in the region willing to join the Philippines in pursuing its claim ASEAN Declaration of the South China Sea (1992, 2002) Meant to develop a code of conduct on resource exploration and extraction in the South China Sea; China signed multilateral agreement Philippines disregarded the agreement in 2006 in working bilaterally with China on seabed exploration, angering Vietnam Maritime SE Asian countries have claims but all handle the problem differently South China Sea Dispute

Nine-dash line

Domestic policy Regionalism Foreign policy A “normal” three-level game with regional dynamics between domestic & and foreign policy Sovereignty is relinquished to regional institutions (what we typically see with the EU)

A “three-level” game in Southeast Asia “Soft” Regionalism Domestic policy Foreign policy A “three-level” game in Southeast Asia Domestic preferences determine regional and and external foreign policy Sovereignty is not relinquished

Malaysia & Vietnam: Military Spending Military expenditures of selected Southeast Asian countries, 2005-2014, in constant USD billion (2011) Malaysia & Vietnam: Military Spending Source: SIPRI Military Expenditure Database, 2014,at http://www.sipri.org/research/armaments/milex/research/armaments/milex/milex_database Taken from Goh 2016 (see bibliography) - Arms sales have increased regional by 45% between 2005-2014 - From 2009-2014, Vietnam has increased military spending by 39% - Expenditures by Malaysia and Vietnam have been on sea-based systems/equipment

Domestic level factors Anti-China Nationalism in Vietnam This requires national government to walk a fine line between domestic concerns and foreign policy with China Malaysia tends to keep China-related disputes away from the media when possible China supported Malaysia’s Communist Party both ideologically (and to some extent financially), which served as an irritant in relations for decades Malaysia highly dependent on China for its export market (Malaysia exports more than it imports) Domestic level factors

Divergent interests between mainland states (Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia) and maritime states (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines) China’s desire to pursue relations bilaterally rather than multilaterally Inability to balance regional issues with external foreign policy Vietnam pursuing “self-help” route by cultivating strong external ties with Russia, Japan, and the United States to help “hedge” (not choosing any particular side) against China National secretariats are not independent but extensions of foreign affairs ministries in their respective countries No country in the region willing to let go of its sovereignty for greater regional coherence Is ASEAN ineffective?

Goh, Evelyn. 2008. “Great Powers and Hierarchical Order in Southeast Asia: Analyzing Regional Security Strategies.” International Security 32(3): 113–57. Goh, Evelyn. 2016. Southeast Asian Strategies toward the Great Powers: Still Hedging after All These Years, retrieved from: http://www.theasanforum.org/southeast-asian-strategies-toward- the-great-powers-still-hedging-after-all-these-years Storey, Ian. 2011. Southeast Asia and the Rise of China: The Search for Security. London; New York: Routledge. Vu, Tuong. 2014. “The Party v. the People.” Journal of Vietnamese Studies 9(4): 33–66. Weatherbee, Donald E. 2014. International Relations in Southeast Asia: The Struggle for Autonomy. Third edition. Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield. Bibliography