PUBLIC OPINION AND POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION

What is Public Opinion? Public Opinion Opinion polls How people think or feel about particular things Opinion polls Interviews or surveys of a sample of citizens used to estimate how the public feels about an issue

How Polling Works Random sample Sampling error Exit polls All have equal opportunity to be polled Sampling error Discrepancy in two or more concurrent polls Exit polls Randomly selected interviews on election day Factors affecting accuracy How the question is worded Clear/simple, unbiased The order in which responses are listed Sample size For a population over 500,000, pollsters need to make about 15,000 phone calls (to reach at least 1,065 respondents)

Types of Polls Straw Poll -- asking as many people as possible. No consideration of sampling. Tracking polls--continuous surveys that enable a campaign to chart its daily rise and fall in popularity. These may be a decent measure of trends. Exit polls--polls conducted at polling places on election day. Deliberative polls--a new kind of poll first tried in 1996. A relatively large scientific sample of Americans (600) were selected for intensive briefings, discussions, and presentations about issue clusters including foreign affairs, the family, and the economy. deliberative polls attempt to measure what the public would think if they the opportunity to thoughtfully consider the issues first.

Reliable Public Opinion Polls In general, do not trust a poll that does not tell you the question wording, the sampling method, and the ways in which respondents were contacted. Reputable pollsters will also tell you the number of respondents (the 'n') and the error rate (+ or - 5%). Any poll that tells you to call 555-5554 for yes and 555-5555 for no is unscientific and unreliable. This is not a random sample at all!

In pairs… Devise a polling question that is clearly and fairly worded. Do you agree with women’s reproductive rights? Change the question to include a biased slant. Do you believe a woman should be allowed to murder unborn children?

In pairs… Identify 3 distinct sources of political attitudes every person is exposed to. Be clear and specific (try to avoid overlap). Many factors influence opinion formation: Family Mass media School Peers Religion Political institutions and leaders

Political Socialization The process by which we learn values that influence one’s political views Sources of Political Attitudes: -Family 60% correlation between parents and kids -Religion Social issues are esp. affected -Age The young favor some liberal and some conservative issues -Gender Men are becoming more conservative Women remain liberal

How We Form Political Opinions Personal Beliefs Political Knowledge Cues From Leaders Political Opinions

Cleavages in Public Opinion Splits, divisions In public opinion and ideology there are not absolutes due to many factors: -Social class -Race/Ethnicity -Region