1. Ap u.s. government & politics
Tuesday, October 10, 2017

2. Current events discussion
7 Minutes

3. Warm-Up: Practice MCQ
Of the following, the most important role in the political socialization of children is played by
A) Their peer groups
B) Their places of worship
C) The family
D) The media
E) The school

4. “The opinion makers”
HW Discussion

5. Public opinion and polling

6. Public Opinion: “…those opinions held by private persons which government finds in prudent to heed.”
Does public opinion really matter?
Should the government have to pay attention to public opinion?

7. Public Opinion: A more accurate definition: The collection of independent politically relevant opinions that ordinary citizens express openly through words or actions.

8. Public Opinion Poll: a poll taken by sampling a cross section of the public in an effort to predict election results or to estimate public attitudes on issues.

9. Random Sampling: A relatively few individuals (the sample) are interviewed in order to estimate the opinions of a whole population
Which “population”? (This matters)
Example: Eligible voters vs. Likely voters

10. In general, a sample size of 1500 (nationwide) produces a margin of error of +/-3%
Sample Sizes and Margins of Error
Sample Size
Margin of Error (+/-)
2000 2%
1000 3%
600 5%
400 6%
200 8%
100
11%
Random Sampling

11. “If you don’t believe in random sampling…next time you go for a blood test, tell them to take it all!”

12. Principles of Opinion Polling and Random Sampling
1) Random Digit Dialing
2) Mobile Sample
25% of U.S. population has no land line
3) Quotas
Based on census data for age, gender, race, region, social class, etc.
4) Phone surveys must be outbound; not call-in
5) Question wording and order of questions are vital
In order for results to be reliable, both of these factors must be neutral

13. Unscientific Polls Straw Polls
Unscientific surveys of popular views (no random sample; or unscientific sample)
Exit Polls
Interviews of voters taken as they are leaving the polling place
Push Polls
Polls that deliberately feed respondents misleading information or leading questions in an effort to “push” voters to a particular candidate or issue position

14. Opinion Poll Question #1
How do you feel about Mr. Koenig as an AP Government teacher?
A) He is the bomb.
B) He’s pretty good, but his clothes are too baggy.
C) He’s just aight to me.
D) He is a big stinky pile of poop.

15. Opinion Poll Question #2
Considering the fact that Mr. Koenig likes to kick dogs, eat small children, and club baby seals, how do you feel about him as an AP Government?
A) He is the bomb.
B) He’s pretty good, but his clothes are too baggy.
C) He’s just aight to me.
D) He is a big stinky pile of poop.

16. Sample opinion poll questions
The Impact of Question Bias (“Push Questions”)

17. Question #1
Overall, how would you rate the quality of the academic program at Paul International High School? OR
Considering our school’s consistently low scores on standardized tests, how would rate the academic program at Paul?

18. Question #2
How would you rate the quality of the varsity sports teams at Paul International High School? OR
Considering the challenge of competing at the varsity level with a small senior class or no senior class, how would you rate the performance of the varsity sports teams at Paul International High School over the past two years?

19. Question #3
How would you rate the success of Obamacare, which has helped to provide health insurance to 16 million Americans? OR
How would you rate the success of the Affordable Care Act, which has left 44 million Americans without health insurance?

20. Exit Ticket: Practice MCQ
The best description of public opinion is
a. the distribution of the public expression of the will of the people.
b. the distribution of the public’s beliefs about politics and policy issues.
c. the distribution of media reflection of public attitudes.
d. the distribution of the public expression of voter attitudes.
e. the distribution of random samples of attitudes.