Air-Sea Interactions in the SAMS Region Paulo Nobre CPTEC/INPE III Reunião de Análise e Previsão Climática do PMTCRH para o Nordeste do Brasil em Recife, 17 de março de 2005.

SAMS CLIMATE VARIABILITY & CONVERGENCE ZONES From: Grodsky and Carton (2002) ITCZ SACZ SITCZ

Seasonal Precipitation Anomaly Correlation CPTEC AGCM simulation and CAMS precip. DJF MAM From: Marengo et al. (2002)

Nordestes Rainfall Predictability personal com. L. Marx COLA

80 0 W 60 0 W 40 0 W 20 0 W E 20 0 N S 20 0 N S (B) (A) WET A COOLER SST WARMER SST ITCZ A The Atlantic ITCZ ITCZ A A COOLER SST WARMER SST DRY Adapted from: C. A. Nobre and L. C. B. Molion (1988) Meridional Gradient SSTA

ATLANTIC ITCZ POSITION AND OLR ANOMALY CORRELATION

MAM CPTEC AGCM T062L28 ANOMALY CORRELATION TAUY RAINFALL

South Atlantic Convergence Zone & SSTA

Prescribed SST anomaly fields COLDWARM Nobre et al. (2002)

Chaves and Nobre (2004) SST DIFFERENCES: OGCM EXPERIMENTS Warm-Ctrl: Wind + SW Cold-Ctrl: Wind + SW

CPTEC CGCM SISTEMATIC ERRORS

DFJ Precip Anomaly Correlation AGCM SIMULATIONS CGCM PREDICTIONS (October IC)

CPTEC CGCM – AGCM DFJ PRECIP ACOR

Observations: The PIRATA Array R/V ANTARES

The PIRATA BACKBONE and the SW EXTENSION Background map: Mean No. of SST observations/month COADS (LAMEPE-2002) (INMET-2004) To be moored by July 2005.

PIRATA SWE & JASON/T-P ground tracks

ITCZ Sounding Experiment-2006 CTD Stations SPSP F. Noronha Fortaleza Natal

Final Remarks Convergence zones represent important mechanisms modulating precipitation variability over South America. ITCZ: planetary scale, strongly modulated by SST: – Prediction of SSTA over the tropical (South) Atlantic. SACZ: Regional scale, coupled phenomena: –1-Tear approach is a need. Needs: –Coupled model development (eastern basin St. deck), –Coupled data assimilation, –Ensemble prediction techniques, –Sustained ocean observation strategies (e.g. PIRATA)…