Alan F. Hamlet, Andrew W. Wood, Dennis P. Lettenmaier,

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Presentation transcript:

Recap of Water Year 2006 Hydrologic Forecast and Forecasts for Water Year 2007 Alan F. Hamlet, Andrew W. Wood, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington

Recap of WY 2006

ENSO is typically very stable from Oct-Jan

Evaluation of Sept 1 ECMWF Nino3.4 Forecast for WY 2003-2005

Evaluation of Aug 1 ECMWF Nino3.4 Forecast for WY 2006 Used range: Jan3.4 >= -0.4 Jan3.4 <= 0.6

Naturalized Flow (cfs) Ensemble Streamflow Forecast for the Columbia River at The Dalles for WY 2006. (Nino3.4 anomalies between -0.4 and 0.6) Black = Climatological Extremes Gray = Forecast Ensemble Members Red = Observed Blue = Ensemble Mean Naturalized Flow (cfs) Nino3.4 -0.4 to 0.6

Evaluation of Sept 1 ECMWF Nino3.4 Forecast for WY 2006 Used range: Jan3.4 >= 0.0 Jan3.4 <= 0.6

Naturalized Flow (cfs) Ensemble Streamflow Forecast for the Columbia River at The Dalles for WY 2006. (Nino3.4 anomalies between 0.0 and 0.6) Black = Climatological Extremes Gray = Forecast Ensemble Members Red = Observed Blue = Ensemble Mean Naturalized Flow (cfs) Nino3.4 0.0 to 0.6

ColSim Reservoir System Storage Forecast All Years from 1916-2003 for which J. Nino3.4 Anom. >= -0.4 AND <= 0.6 Obs. System Storage Sept 28, 2006

WY 2007 Forecast

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/plumes/

April-September Naturalized Flow for the Columbia River at The Dalles, OR from Historic Water Years vs January Nino 3.4 Anomalies. 1916-2002

Ensemble Streamflow Forecast for the Columbia River at The Dalles for WY 2007. (Nino3.4 anomalies between 0.7 and 1.5) Black = Climatological Extremes Gray = Forecast Ensemble Members Red = LTM from 1950-1999 Blue = Ensemble Mean Modified Flow (cfs)

ColSim Reservoir System Storage Forecast All Years from 1960-1999 for which J. Nino3.4 Anom. >= 0.7 AND <= 1.5 2007

Selected References on Compositing Techniques: Hamlet, A.F., Lettenmaier, D.P., 1999: Columbia River Streamflow Forecasting Based on ENSO and PDO Climate Signals, ASCE J. of Water Res. Planning and Mgmt., 125 (6) : 333-341 Werner K, Brandon D, Clark M, et al., 2004: Climate index weighting schemes for NWS ESP-based seasonal volume forecasts, J. of Hydrometeorology, 5 (6): 1076-1090

Conclusions: The WY 2006 ESP forecast predicted a range of flows centered around near normal conditions. Actual flows in 2006 were towards the upper range of this forecast, probably due in part to an unusually large ENSO forecast error. A moderate warm ENSO event is expected for the winter of 2006-2007. ESP traces from 1960-1999 associated with a forecasted range of Nino3.4 anomalies from 0.7-1.5 suggest elevated drought risks for WY 2007.