Updated Safety Margins for Mobile Emissions Budgets for the 2012 PM2.5 Redesignation Request and Maintenance Plan Transportation Planning Board September 19, 2012 Ronald Kirby Director, Department of Transportation Planning 09/19/20121

Updated PM2.5 Safety Margins March 21, TPB letter to MWAQC requested safety margins of 20 and 30 percent in mobile emissions budgets for 2017 and 2025 respectively, to reflect uncertainties in the future fleet age and mix, and EPA mandated emissions models June 1, A sensitivity analysis conducted by TPB staff showed the impact of an older fleet on PM2.5 emissions was actually lower in 2025 than in 2017 July 31, In a conference call with the MWAQC Mobile Budget Task Force, TPB staff proposed safety margins of 20 percent for both 2017 and 2025, which was accepted by the Task Force 09/19/20122

Fleet Aging A Consumer Reports article of August 2012 stated that the fleet has been aging since 1995 due to more durable vehicles The average age of all cars on the road is approaching 11 years, up from about eight years in 1995…a decade ago cars werent as reliable and durable as they are today. …[I]mprovements in rust prevention, engine technology, and lubricants have been game changers, and now you can expect to keep any car rolling into six-figure (miles) territory with proper care. Aging of the vehicle fleet due to durability factors, as well as short-term economic conditions, underscores the importance of safety margins in mobile emissions budgets for 2017 and /19/20123

MAP-21 Provisions Affecting PM2.5 Emissions Use of Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality Improvement Program (CMAQ) funds to reduce fine particulate emissions: For any State that has a nonattainment or maintenance area for fine particulate matter, an amount equal to 25 percent of the funds…shall be obligated to projects that reduce fine particulate matter and emissions in such area, including diesel retrofits. Section 104(b)(4) 09/19/20124

Performance Management Planning MAP-21 introduced a new performance based approach in Section 150(d) Secretary will establish performance measures related to the national goals States, public transportation providers, and MPOs will establish targets for each of the performance measures in coordination with each other Progress toward targets will be referenced in Plans and TIPs 09/19/20125

MAP-21 Performance Management Provisions Affecting Air Quality Planning Each MPO representing a nonattainment or maintenance area shall develop a performance plan that: – Includes an area baseline level for traffic congestion and on- road mobile source emissions for which the area is in nonattainment or maintenance; – Describes progress made in achieving the performance targets described in Section 150(d); – Includes a description of projects identified for CMAQ funding, and how such projects will contribute to achieving emission and traffic congestion reduction targets. Plans updated biennially, including a separate report that assesses progress of the program of projects under the previous plan in achieving air quality and traffic congestion targets 09/19/20126

Questions? Ronald Kirby Director, Department of Transportation Planning 09/19/20127