PERT Program Evaluation and Review Technique

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Presentation transcript:

PERT Program Evaluation and Review Technique SEEM 3530 Tutorial Sep.25 2013 27/4/2019 PERT Program Evaluation and Review Technique CEMIS INFS410L Mourad Henchiri

Completion Times (days) SEEM 3530 Tutorial Sep.25 2013 27/4/2019 PERT Example Consider a small project that involves the following activities. Preceding Completion Times (days) Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic a - 5 6 7 b 4 18 c 15 20 d b,c 3 e 16

PERT Example (cont’d) (a) Determine the expected value and the variance of the completion time for each activity. (b) Use the expected times from (a) to find the critical path. (c) Assuming that the normal distribution applies, determine the probability that the critical path will take between 18 and 26 days to complete. (d) How much time must be allowed to achieve a 90% probability of timely completion? (e)By using modified probability of completion method, what is the probability that all paths will take before 18 weeks?

Exercise Solution (a) Activity Mean Variance a 6 4/36 b 7 196/36 c 14 256/36 d 4 e 14.5 169/36 END E 14.5 A6 C 14 D4 START B7

Questions?