Beyond 2013 www.clivar.org

CLIVAR Imperatives Anthropogenic Climate Change Decadal Variability, Predictability and Prediction Intraseasonal and Seasonal Predictability and Prediction Improved Atmosphere and Ocean Components of ESMs Data Synthesis and Analysis Ocean Observing System Capacity Building

Decadal variability & predictability First attempts already underway Decadal prediction part of CMIP5 protocol – Joint design by WCRP/WGCM/WGSIP/CLIVAR sub group Opportunities for diagnostic sub-projects CLIVAR Workshop Atlantic Panel coordination of activities to monitor the Atlantic MOC Ocean observations will be at the heart of decadal climate prediction systems. Major challenges will, therefore, be to continually assess whether existing and planned ocean observing systems are optimal for decadal predictions and to address any identified deficiencies. As one example, a tremendous advance has been the measurements of temperature and salinity over the upper 2000 m of the global ocean currently provided by ARGO profiling floats. There exists, however, a need to assess whether observations from below 2000 m would be of use in decadal climate predictions by more completely characterizing deep ocean conditions, such as the lower limb of the MOC, and in assessing other changes such as in abyssal ocean heat content. Also, with a lifetime of individual ARGO floats of only a few years, there is a need to evaluate and minimize the impact of instrumentation changes on the quality of the records both for climate analyses and for initializing prediction models.

Anthropogenic Climate Change Realize long-term CMIP5 climate change integrations under WGCM/AIMES joint planning. Promote analysis of CMIP5 though diagnostic sub projects. Explore regional change through CLIVAR regional panels.

Climate extremes Develop and Strengthen Interactions with CLIVAR with GEWEX focused WCRP activity on drought: Drought Implementation Group (to be reported on by GEWEX) WMO CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM ETCCDI continued development of global indices data base and analysis through capacity-building workshops and input to IPCC WGCM: analysis of extremes in higher resolution decadal prediction simulations Priorities Over the Next 5+ years Develop and Strengthen Interactions with Ocean Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Communities Develop and strengthen existing links with IMBER, PICES, SIBER (INDIAN OCEAN), IOCCP Joint targeted workshops Develop ocean carbon aspects of ocean synthesis activities (WGCM with IGBP AIMES/WGOMD; GSOP Strengthen SSG in this area Developing focus on droughts, building on GEWEX activities in CEOP and US CLIVAR drought activity

Ocean Model Development Key to achieving CLIVAR/WCRP goals for ocean analysis, seasonal and decadal prediction and anthropogenic climate change Improved Ocean Models (WGOMD) WGOMD: Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE) CORE-I Results: Multi-century simulations with a 500 year repeat annual cycle forcing (Large & Yeager 2004, 2008): Griffies et al., 2009: Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (COREs) Ocean Modelling Developing focus on droughts, building on GEWEX activities in CEOP and US CLIVAR drought activity CORE-II underway – flexible design:

CLIVAR/WCRP Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) Major future plans/activities Focus & priorities over the next 5+ years: Evaluation & Understanding: Evaluation of OAGCMs better definition of model outputs bridge to observations and processes Narrowing of the gap between modeling and understanding hierarchy of model experiments sensitivity & idealized experiments Longer term (mid-century to 2100+) Climate sensitivity radiative forcing physical feedbacks (e.g. clouds) Carbon-climate feedbacks 1st generation of Earth System Models interactive carbon cycle and vegetation intermediate resolution (~ 200 km) Near term (next 30 years) : Decadal prediction initialisation of coupled models factors that provide decadal predictability Regional information & extremes high resolution models (~ 50 km) short-lived species (aerosols, chemistry..)

Seasonal (and Longer-Term) Prediction Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (WGSIP) Major future plans/activities CHFP Participation and Analysis Increase visibility of CHFP (climate system historical forecast experiment) Increase regional capacity through training on the use of CHFP data for application: IAI Training Institute on the Use of Seasonal Predictions for Applications in Latin America 02 – 13 August, 2010 - Buenos Aires, Argentina Assessment of climate models in seasonal forecast mode CMIP5 Near Term Experiments Coordinated Analysis Initialization, Predictability,Multi-mode combination, Skill --> Internal variability v. external forcing Priorities Over the Next 5+ years Seasonal (and Longer-Term) Prediction Facilitate completion of key process studies and enhanced observing system campaigns Improve prediction of key tropical modes (ENSO, TAV)