Seasonal Adjustment software Cristina Calizzani - Unit B2 Item 4.5 of the Agenda Seasonal Adjustment software Cristina Calizzani - Unit B2 21 & 22 October 2009

Background Seasonal Adjustment important step of short term analysis of development of the economy Availability of modern & reliable software tools for SA in friendly environment important precondition In 2008 following approval ESS guidelines on SA (by SPC and CMFB) Eurostat started development more sustainable and flexible tool for managing complex SA algorithms Solution presented to ITDG in 2008 driven by NBB IT development in time series domain (library of reusable components) Technology easy to be embedded in many environments, fast developments and extensions allowed 21 & 22 October 2009 IT Directors Group

Project’s stakeholders Developers’ group Eurostat, BoS, USCB, NBB, ECB (Cooperation agreement for collaborative development) Assure proper development, maintenance and testing protocols Coordination of the policy of revisions /upgrade engines NBB: grant beneficiary for adapting the NBB toolkit to the needs of the ESS User testing group (launched in January 2009) Experts of Tramo-Seats, X12Arima, Demetra from some NSIs and NCBs Testing and validation of components as they become available Issuing of recommendations for aligning the tool to user requirements and guidelines Community created in OSOR for reporting and exchanging experiences SA Steering Group - High level group coordinating SA activities in NSIs and NCBs 21 & 22 October 2009 IT Directors Group

Development phases Iterative prototyping approach: 4 prototypes To improve communication between developers and users To figure out usefulness/consequences of specific designs before building the entire system Development Demetra+ follows Eurostat work plan Close cooperating with user testing group Prototype I in 2008; Prototype II March 2009 Prototype III (October 2009): integrates main requirement expressed by users on prototype II, storing of parameters, basis for final specification and identification missing features Prototype IV (expected February 2010): beta version of the tool February 2010 – May 2010 Intensive testing June 2010: Release Demetra+ (V1) June 2010 - June 2011: Porting to Java December 2011: Release Demetra+ (V2) 21 & 22 October 2009 IT Directors Group

Demetra+ solution Components of Demetra+ .NET and C# technologies Basic API SA production tools with “Demetra like” functionalities A multi-application (research) environment SA cruncher .NET and C# technologies Adequate technology for the current phases of development: Allowing fast development Best solution for iterative/adaptive approach based on reinforced communication (Eurostat, users, developers) Demetra+ V1 June 2010 High level interactivity (new way approaching SA methods) For Windows only Validation of the tool by all stakeholders Demetra+ V2: Java version Portability to multiuser environments (UNIX) Involvement of key actors into additional module development activities First step for a future reengineering of the core engines in Java Compatible with Eurostat requirements for batch processing 21 & 22 October 2009 IT Directors Group

Conclusions Demetra+ very challenging project Suitability and potentiality of the approach confirmed by the commitment and interest expressed by the actors involved Coherence of development with SA native engines assured by developers New SA IT architecture flexible enough to cope with continuous advances in research and challenging users’ requests. Additional issues related to future governance of Demetra+ (i.e. versioning, property, documentation, OSS) have to be addressed in the next phases of the development Development of Demetra+ expected to contribute to the enhancement of expertise and harmonisation of SA procedures in the ESS 21 & 22 October 2009 IT Directors Group

Thanks for the attention! 21 & 22 October 2009 IT Directors Group