Entry, exit and sustainability - some Swedish experiences on public governance and fiscal policy by Urban Hansson-Brusewitz Budget Director, Budget Department.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
The Euro in Crisis Uri Dadush Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Chicago, June 14, 2010.
Advertisements

THE EURO AREA FISCAL POLICY RESPONSE TO THE ECONOMIC CRISIS: THE FIRST YEAR Ad van Riet Head of Fiscal Policies Division European Central Bank Bucharest,
Annual Growth Survey macroeconomic report Brussels, 6 February 2013 Kees van Duin Policy Coordination and Strategic planning Directorate General for Economic.
Challenges in restoring fiscal sustainability Federal Planning Bureau 27 October 2009 Jørgen Elmeskov Acting Chief Economist Economics Department.
Fiscal Rules Eldad Shidlovsky, Head of Economics and Research Department. Ministry of Finance May 2009 Ministry of Finance.
1 Fiscal Policies for Sustainable Economic Growth: Challenges for Slovenia Gerd Schwartz Deputy Director, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF Conference on.
The Irish Economy JUNE IrelandGreeceEU Population4,588,252 (2011)9,903,268 (2011)503,679,730 Area84,420 km2131,990 km2 Gross GDP figure€144 billion€227.
UK Fiscal Strategy Presentation to Wim Drees Foundation for Public Finance Conrad Smewing Deputy Director, Fiscal Policy and Statistics April 2011 UNCLASSIFIED.
Ministry of Finance Sweden How Competitive is the Social Market Economy? May 19, 2011 Swedish Minister for Finance Anders Borg.
© The Treasury/code Fiscal Institutions in New Zealand: The question of spending caps and spending reviews John Janssen February 2011.
The long-run sustainability of Swedish Fiscal Policy Thomas Eisensee Senior Economist.
PUBLIC DEBT DYNAMICS IN THE EU Andrea Montanino European Commission Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs, Public Finances with particular.
C A U S E S International factors: -Increased Access to Capital at Low Interest Rates -Heavily borrow -Access to artificially cheap credit -Global finance.
Sovereign Debt Conference Session 2: Eurozone Countries at Risk (then and now) Prof. Louka T. Katseli London,
The Swedish Fiscal Policy Council Swedish Fiscal Policy.
Governor Stefan Ingves Introduction on monetary policy Riksdag Committee on Finance 18 September 2012.
The Israeli Economy January 2012 Ministry of Finance.
AD and AS equilibrium Equilibrium in both markets P Y AD AS Y Potential.
FISCAL POLICY LEGISLATIVE MANDATES Employment Act of 1946 Council of Economic Advisors (CEA) Joint Economic Committee (JEC)
1 Preliminary assessment of progress in implementing the EERP Alexandr Hobza, Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs European Commission.
Overview What we have seen : achievements Crisis less bad than feared What we can expect : challenges Fragile, slow and varied recovery What should be.
Miami, 10 May Dr. Árpád Kovács Competitiveness, Sustainable Development and Sustainable Constitutional State.
A Brief Presentation of the Economic Development in Finland Director for Performance Audit Hannu Rajamäki National Audit Office of Finland Vilnius 10 June.
Warsaw, Poland May 17, 2010 Poland Social Sector and Public Wages Public Expenditure Review From Maastricht to Vision 2030 Overview.
Macro Review for the Knesset Finance Committee Ministry of Finance January 2012.
No 1 Fiscal Sustainability in Sweden The Swedish National Audit Office.
1 ASSESSING FISCAL RISKS THROUGH LONG-TERM BUDGET PROJECTIONS Paal Ulla Budgeting & Public Expenditures Division Public Governance & Territorial Development.
FISCAL POLICY Definition of Fiscal Policy a government policy for dealing with the budget (especially with taxation and borrowing)
Copyright McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2002 Legislative Mandate Fiscal Policy and the AD-AS Model Expansionary and Contractionary Fiscal Policy Financing.
Macroeconomic Environment and Policies After Crisis In Armenia Ministry of Finance Deputy Minister Vardan Aramyan October 6, 2011.
Swedish Fiscal Policy 2008 Lars Calmfors Chairman.
GKI Zrt., Political and Economic Challenges and Responses October Dr. András Vértes Chairman GKI Economic Research Co.
International Labour Conference The effectiveness and scope of fiscal stimulus in response to the crisis Jonathan Coppel Counsellor, Office of the OECD.
Fiscal Frameworks: The Swedish experience 8 July, Ljubljana Joakim Sonnegård Head of Agency 1.
Economic Crisis: The Way Out? An Eastern European Perspective Sándor Meisel – Krisztina Vida Institute for World Economics Research Centre for Economic.
Econ 102 Fall Fiscal Policy 1.Discretionary fiscal policy- 2. Automatic stabilizers.
The Government Budget Process and the Role of the Swedish Fiscal Policy Council Lars Calmfors Chairman.
Monetary policy report July Swedish economy developing strongly.
CHAPTER 29 Fiscal Policy PowerPoint® Slides by Can Erbil © 2005 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved.
Ministry of Finance Sweden Government Offices of Sweden Fiscal rules and medium term budgeting in Sweden Thomas Wilhelmsson, Budget Department, Ministry.
EU Debt Crisis Group 1 Day3 Pavlina Rucki, Tony Chen.
Public finance consolidation in Slovakia Peter Goliaš INEKO Director, Slovakia May 22, 2015 Webinar on Public Finance Consolidation.
Romania: Economic Situation And Prospects
Fiscal consolidations: comments BoF and Bd’I Conference 11 June 2010
Overview of the public finances and spending
Current Fiscal Policy and Expenditure Management in Korea
Discretionary fiscal policy
Economic Growth and Taxation
PowerPoint E: International Comparisons
Monetary Policy and Fiscal Soundness
Macroeconomic Policy and the Euro Area after the Crisis
Discretionary fiscal policy
The 2009 MTBPS: Managing a fiscal calamity
Slide Deck E: International Comparisons
Lecture 23. FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY
Introduction to the UK Economy
12 C H A P T E R FISCAL POLICY.
Jaehyuk CHOI / Policy Analyst
Entry, exit and sustainability - some Swedish experiences on public governance and fiscal policy by Urban Hansson-Brusewitz Budget Director, Budget Department.
The Assessment of the Stability Programme of Lithuania for 2018
Fiscal Sustainability in Sweden
ECONOMICS: April 16 Warm-up (using Act. 5-2 HO) Discretionary vs. Automatic Fiscal Policy (#1, #3, #4, #6, #7, & #10) Economics Learning Target In order.
Chapter 30 Fiscal Policy, Deficits and Debt
Economic Crossroads: From Recovery to Sustainable Growth in the Baltics and EU Jürgen Ligi Minister
12 C H A P T E R FISCAL POLICY.
Budget Sustainability Policies in the Republic of Belarus
A Brief Presentation of the Economic Development in Finland
Fixing the public finances: eight years of pain?
12 C H A P T E R FISCAL POLICY.
ECONOMICS: April 22 Warm-up What is the difference between discretionary and automatic fiscal policy? Economics Learning Target In order to understand.
Presentation transcript:

Entry, exit and sustainability - some Swedish experiences on public governance and fiscal policy by Urban Hansson-Brusewitz Budget Director, Budget Department Ministry of Finance 2009-09-25

GDP growth and forecast Sources: Eurostat, US Dep. of Commerce, Statistics Sweden and Ministry of Finance.

GDP in Sweden Percentage change per year, 1920–2012 Note: Time series before and after 1950 are not completely comparable. The quality of data from earlier years is more uncertain. Sources: Edvinsson (1920-1949) and Statistics Sweden (1950-2008); forecast from Ministry of Finance (2009-2012)

The 2010 budget for Sweden Measures to combat crisis Reduce effects of unemployment shock; Prevent unemployment from becoming lasting; Focus on core welfare services.

Very expansionary fiscal policy 2009-10 Source: OECD Economic Outlook 2009, June Percent of GDP Automatic stabilisers Discretionary fiscal policy

GDP in Sweden Percentage change per year, 1920–2012 Note: Time series before and after 1950 are not completely comparable. The quality of data from earlier years is more uncertain. Sources: Edvinsson (1920-1949) and Statistics Sweden (1950-2008); forecast from Ministry of Finance (2009-2012)

Government revenues in Sweden - forecast revisions since Spring Bill 2008, billions kronor

Lessons from the Swedish crisis in 1990’s Consolidation program min 90’s aimed at balancing austerity vs. growth prospects; yield credible short term budget gains; Cuts in transfer payments, less in core services. Reform needs to target expenditure cuts;

Hours worked, Sweden Index 1990=100

Public debt in Sweden compared to EU - Gross Public Debt. Source: OECD. Percent of GDP

Sustainable public finances in Sweden Indikatorn The S2 indicator shows the permanent improvement in surplus needed for sustainable public finances. A negative number imples that the public finances are sustainable and can withstand some weakening.Source: European Commission 2009. Percent of GDP

Summary Keep your own house in order; Stronger fiscal rules on national level to support Stability and Growth Pact; Expenditure ceilings are useful tools; Fiscal rules cannot survive without political support; EU public finances substantial challenges ahead – costs from ageing population; Enter by all means, but also think exit.