2006 Water Resources Outlook for the Columbia River Basin

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Presentation transcript:

2006 Water Resources Outlook for the Columbia River Basin JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington October, 2006 http://www.hydro.washington.edu/Lettenmaier/Presentations/2004/hamlet_2006_forecast_oct_2005.ppt Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier

Recap of Water Year 2005

Observed Nino3.4 anomally

Historic Water Years vs January Nino 3.4 Anomalies 1916-2002

Natural Streamflow (cfs) Bias Corrected Long Range Streamflow Forecast for the Columbia River at The Dalles January Nino3.4 index between 0.2 and 1.2 Red = Unconditional mean Blue = Ensemble mean Black = 2005 Observed Natural Streamflow (cfs)

Natural Streamflow (cfs) Bias Corrected Long Range Streamflow Forecast for the Columbia River at The Dalles January Nino3.4 index between 0.2 and 1.2 and warm PDO (epochs) Red = Unconditional mean Blue = Ensemble mean Black = 2005 Observed Natural Streamflow (cfs)

Natural Streamflow (cfs) Bias Corrected Long Range Streamflow Forecast for the Columbia River at The Dalles Nino3.4 index between 0.2 and 1.2 and warm PDO (interannual) Red = Unconditional mean Blue = Ensemble mean Black = 2005 Observed Natural Streamflow (cfs)

ColSim Reservoir Model Climate Forecast VIC Hydrology Model

Linkage to Reservoir Models Streamflow Forecast Bias Correction Storage Ensemble Reservoir Model Observed Reservoir Contents Demand Scenarios

All Years from 1950-2003 for which J. Nino3. 4 Anom. >= 0 All Years from 1950-2003 for which J. Nino3.4 Anom. >= 0.2 AND <=1.2 Obs. System Storage Oct 1, 2005

System Storage Forecast from SnakeSim: Jackson Lake Palisades Island Park Ririe American Falls Lake Walcott Nino3.4 anomaly between 0.2 and 1.2 C Demand aligned with water cond. October 1 Spin Up Active Reservoir Storage (kaf) Obs. System Storage Oct 1, 2005

Outlook for Water Year 2006

Winter Climate Forecasts Dominate Hydrologic State Variables Dominate April 1 SWE (mm) Winter Climate Forecasts Dominate Hydrologic State Variables Dominate June December March Range =16.7% of ensemble summer mean

Used range: Jan3.4 >= -0.4 Jan3.4 <= 0.6

Historic Water Years vs January Nino 3.4 Anomalies Red lines show approximate range for 2006 forecast 1916-2002

Natural Streamflow (cfs) Bias Corrected Long Range Streamflow Forecast for the Columbia River at The Dalles January Nino3.4 index between -0.4 and 0.6 Red = Unconditional mean Blue = Ensemble mean Natural Streamflow (cfs)

Natural Streamflow (cfs) Bias Corrected Long Range Streamflow Forecast for the Columbia River at The Dalles January Nino3.4 index between -0.4 and 0.6 AND PDO neutral Red = Unconditional mean Blue = Ensemble mean Natural Streamflow (cfs)

Used range: Jan3.4 >= 0.0 Jan3.4 <= 0.6

Natural Streamflow (cfs) Bias Corrected Long Range Streamflow Forecast for the Columbia River at The Dalles January Nino3.4 index between 0.0 and 0.6 Red = Unconditional mean Blue = Ensemble mean Natural Streamflow (cfs)

ColSim Reservoir System Storage Forecast All Years from 1916-2003 for which J. Nino3.4 Anom. >= -0.4 AND <= 0.6

Overview of Experimental Energy-Related Forecasting Products

Covariation of Normalized PNW and CA Hydropower Production California and PNW hydropower resources show a strong covariance in the second half of the 20th century.

Probability of Exceedance for Spring Surplus Energy Resources in the PNW Voisin, N., A. F. Hamlet, L. P. Graham, D. W. Pierce, T. P. Barnett, and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2005: The role of climate forecasts in western U.S. power planning, Journal of Applied Meteorology (in press).

Forecast of System-Wide Energy Production from the Colsim Reservoir Model All Years from 1916-2003 for which J. Nino3.4 Anom. >= -0.4 AND <= 0.6 Energy targets in each year of the simulation are for WY 2000 System-Wide Energy Production (MMW-hr/month)

Selected References on Compositing Techniques: Hamlet, A.F., Lettenmaier, D.P., 1999: Columbia River Streamflow Forecasting Based on ENSO and PDO Climate Signals, ASCE J. of Water Res. Planning and Mgmt., 125 (6) : 333-341 Werner K, Brandon D, Clark M, et al., 2004: Climate index weighting schemes for NWS ESP-based seasonal volume forecasts, J. of Hydrometeorology, 5 (6): 1076-1090