3DVar EnKF
Radar reflectivity (composite), 2113 UTC 25 August www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar
Future directions for DA Maturing and continuing: use of remote sensors Still in research and development: adaptive, integrated forecast systems The frontier: small scales and short range Other physical systems
Use of remote sensing Not my expertise! Maturing: “great leap forward” for radiances Dealing with future observations High density: correlations, thinning, compression “Moist” variables, particularly cloud and precip Obs not yet used effectively (imagers) Network design: What obs do we need?
Adaptive, integrated forecast systems Unite probabilistic forecasting and DA Adaptive: system can change based on need E.g., change obs network to improve specified forecast E.g., select “most important” obs to assimilate Self-regulating: system diagnoses errors (at least) and corrects E.g., evaluation of model-error hypotheses E.g., parameter estimation
Small scales & short range Models will soon resolve convection Usage of high-density observations (space and ground-based sensors) Fundamentally different from large scales Different dynamics Models untested Predictability different