Slides for GGR 314, Global Warming Chapter 4: Climate Models and Projected Climatic Change Course taught by Danny Harvey Department of Geography University of Toronto

Exhibit 4-1: Schematic illustration of some of the major processes that are included in atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). Source: Meehl and Washington?

Exhibit 4-2a: Simulations with no aerosol cooling to offset GHG heating

Exhibit 4-2b: Simulations with progressively stronger aerosol cooling the larger the assumed climate sensitivity Source: Harvey (2000, Global Warming: The Hard Science, Prentice Hall)

Exhibit 4-3: Top: Variation in calculated atmospheric CO2 concentration during the past 450 million years (blue), early estimates of CO2 construction based on various proxy indicators (yellow), and recent revised estimates (red). Bottom: Time periods with continental glaciations. Source: Breecker et al. (2001, Proc. Nat. Aced. Sci., Vol. 107, 576-580)

Exhibit 4-4: Variation in a measure of the carbon isotope (top) and oxygen isotope (middle) ratios in marine sediments, and in the percentage of carbonate preserved in sediments near the Paleocene-Eocene boundary. Source: Zachos et al. (2008, Nature, Vol. 451, 279-283)

Exhibit 4-5: Projected global mean temperature change for a business-as-usual scenario compared to variations during the previous millennium (Exhibit 1-35) and observed changes during the past 150 years (Exhibit 1-30), neglecting likely positive climate-carbon cycle feedbacks Source: Harvey (2010, Energy and The New Reality, Vol 1, Earthscan, Fig. 1.5)

Exhibit 4-6: Distribution of equilibrium warming with latitude for 2 x CO2, as simulated by various Atmospheric GCMs coupled to a mixed layer ocean model Source: Harvey (2000, Global Warming: The Hard Science, Prentice Hall)

Exhibit 4-7: Changes in E-W average T from 1980-1999 to 2080-2099 from transient simulations with AOGCMs. Red: land, Blue, ocean (ignore lower lines) Source: IPCC AR4 WG1 Chapter 10, Fig. 10.6b

Exhibit 4-8a: Changes in mean annual temperature from 1980-1999 to 2011-2030, for a medium business-as-usual emission scenario and averaged over many AOGCMs Source: IPCC AR4 WG1 Chapter 10, Fig. 10.8

Exhibit 4-8b: Changes in mean annual temperature from 1980-1999 to 2046-2065, for a medium business-as-usual emission scenario and averaged over many AOGCMs Source: IPCC AR4 WG1 Chapter 10, Fig. 10.8

Exhibit 4-8c: Changes in mean annual temperature from 1980-1999 to 2080-2099, for a medium business-as-usual emission scenario and averaged over many AOGCMs Source: IPCC AR4 WG1 Chapter 10, Fig. 10.8

Exhibit 4-9: Comparison of warming during DJF (top) and JJA (bottom), averaged over many AOGCMs. Source: IPCC AR4 WG1 Chapter 10, Fig. 10.9

Exhibit 4-10: Changes in DJF Precipitation and consistency of model- projected changes Source: Wang et al. (2005, Clim. Dyn, Vol. 25, 739-753, Fig. 3)

Exhibit 4-11: Changes in JJA Precipitation and consistency of model- projected changes Source: Wang et al. (2005, Clim. Dyn, Vol. 25, 739-753, Fig. 4)

Exhibit 4-12: Changes in E-W average precipitation from 1980-1999 to 2080-2099. Red: land, Blue, ocean (ignore lower lines) Source: IPCC AR4 WG1 Chapter 10, Fig. 10.6d

Exhibit 4-13a: Change in DJF soil moisture averaged over several AOGCMs Source: Wang et al. (2005, Clim. Dyn, Vol. 25, 739-753)

Exhibit 4.13b: Consistency, between models, in the predicted change in DJF soil moisture shown in Exhibit 4.13a. Source: Wang et al. (2005, Clim. Dyn, Vol. 25, 739-753)

Exhibit 4-14a: Change in JJA soil moisture averaged over several AOGCMs Source: Wang et al. (2005, Clim. Dyn, Vol. 25, 739-753)

Exhibit 4.14b: Consistency, between models, in the predicted change in DJF soil moisture shown in Exhibit 4.14a. Source: Wang et al. (2005, Clim. Dyn, Vol. 25, 739-753)