California Housing Market Update

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Presentation transcript:

California Housing Market Update Monthly Sales and Price Statistics December 2018

Sales Reached the Lowest Level since Jan 2015 California, December 2018 Sales: 372,260 Units, -5.2% YTD, -11.6% YTY Dec-17: 420,960 Dec-18: 372,260 Peak:624,957 units in 2005 Valley:189,345 units in 1982 2012 annual sales up 4.3% from 2011 2011 annual sales up 1.4% from 2010 2010 annual sales down 12.3% from 2009 2009 annual sales up 24.5% from 2008 2008 annual sales up 30.4% from 2007 2007 annual sales down 33.4% from 2006 2006 annual sales down 23.8% from 2005 2005 annual sales up 0.8% from 2004 2004 annual sales up 3.8% from 2003 2003 annual sales up 7.6% from 2002 2002 annual sales up 14.1% from 2001 2001 annual sales down 4.7% from 2000 YTD 2000 annual sales up 1.4 from 1999 1999 sales up 7.3% over 1998 10/93: 41.0 Consumer Confidence 01/00: 148.6 03/03: 63.0 5/07: 128.4 2/09: 23.9 SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized

California Home Sales Continued on a Declining Trend Data from historical file SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized 3

Bay Area Sales Had the Largest YOY Decline since Oct 2010 Data from historical file SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized 4

Southern California Home Sales Continued to Dip by Double-Digit YoY % chg. Data from historical file SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized 5

Central Valley Sales Dropped the Most in Nearly Five Years YoY % chg. Data from historical file SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized 6

Sales Declined in All Price Segments December 2018 (YTY% Chg.) Data found in MPPA SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Home Prices Continued to Grow but at a Very Modest Pace California, December 2018: $557,600, +0.5% MTM, +1.5% YTY Dec-18: $557,600 Dec-17: $549,550 SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Price Growth Remained near Lowest Level since Early 2012 From historical SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/Townhomes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Condo/Townhome Median Price Leveling off as Markets Move into Off Season Dec-18: $460,660 Dec-17: $446,840 SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condos/Townhomes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

CA Median Price (Existing SFH) SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® 11

Year-over-Year Price Growth by Percentile From Jordan SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

List Price Suggests a Bounce Back in Sales Price Growth SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Reduced-Price Listings Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: 38.3%; Median Reduction Amount: -4.3% From Jordan SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Price Per Square Inched Up from Last Year, but Declined from November December 2018: $268, Down 5.0% MTM, Up 1.1% YTY Dec-18: $268 Dec-17: $266 SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Sales Price -to-List Price Hit the Lowest Level since Jan 2015 December 2018: 97.4%, -0.5% MTM, -1.3% YTY Dec-17: 98.7% Dec-18: 97.4% SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Percentile From Jordan SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Time on Market Rises as the Market Slows California, December 2018: 32.0 Days Range since 1988: Low - 21.9 days in May 2004 High – 93 days in Feb 1993 SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Median Time on Market by Percentile From Jordan SERIES: Median Time on Market of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Inventory Index Down MTM but Up from 2017 December 2017: 2.5 Months; December 2018: 3.5 Months Range since 1988: Low: 1.3 months in May 2004 High: 18.8 months in Apr 1991 Long-run average: 6.9 months Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question. SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Active Listings Continued to Increase for the 9th Consecutive Month Data from Sales vs Listings SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Housing Supply Improved across the Board Dec 2018 Data from UIPR SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Inventory Improved as Sales Continued to Fall Data from historical Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question. SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Active Listings Increased in All Regions Data from sales vs listings SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Active Listings Increased in All Regions Dec 2018 Data from sales vs listings SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Inventory Index Highest in Millions Data from UIPR SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Active Listings by Month From Jordan