Climate Change in Scotland / UK / N. Europe David Stevenson dstevens@staffmail.ed.ac.uk School of GeoSciences University of Edinburgh

Measured temperature trends (IPCC, 2007)

(IPCC, 2007) Scottish Temperature 1914-2005 (Scottish Executive, 2006) (Environment Agency, 2010) (Palutikof, 2000) (IPCC, 2007)

Spring is getting earlier!

N. Europe likely to warm by 2-5C by 2100 Ranges for different emission scenarios Model range in red, Observations in black Model range in orange (IPCC, 2007)

Projected warming, 1990s to 2090s Average of 21 models, A1B scenario Winter Summer Scotland projected to warm 2-3°C over the next century (IPCC, 2007)

Projected changes in precipitation, 1990s to 2090s Average of 21 models, A1B scenario Winter Summer Scotland: wetter winters; possibly drier summers, but less consensus (IPCC, 2007)

Winter Summer Present-day climate

Winter Summer Carbon dioxide doubling: winter +3oC, summer +3oC

Summary Scotland likely to warm ~2.5C by 2100 (also more extreme heat-waves) Winter precipitation increases Summer precipitation may decrease Precipitation intensity increases – flash-floods Snow declines Sea-level rise partly mitigated by uplift (post-glacial rebound) – coastal floods Scotland is perhaps relatively the least impacted region of N. Europe? Impacts: Agriculture, biodiversity, tourism, immigration…

Where is the current climate best matched to the UK climate of the future? Broadmeadow et al 2003, Climate change and broadleaved tree species

Scottish precipitation 1914-2008 Increase since 1970 – mostly in winter precipitation Intensity of individual events has increased Consistent with model predictions of climate change