Measuring transition from School to Labour Market Practical session

OVERVIEW Step 1: Introduction Stylized facts about school-to-work transitions Transitions in the Mediterranean region Types of Transition measures Step 2: Existing survey tools and their possible adjustment Step 3: Review of statistical tools and methods Step 4: Identify relevant statistical abstracts and indicators MEDSTAT WORKSHOP, 14/03/2013

STEP 1 : STYLIZED FACTS ABOUT TRANSITION Labour Market outcomes are heterogeneous according to the level of education, the subject of studies, the gender, the social origin (networks, access to relevant information), the geographical origin (rural/urban, regions), the type of track (general vs. vocational, school vs alternating training) The low achievers are the most disadvantaged, being a HE graduate do not always bring a bonus Youth employment is generally more sensitive to the business cycle than adult employment International comparisons are useful, but not easy to do To analyze transitions, one needs to take into account institutional ET and LM systems, and linkages between them): the transition process admits no universal definition MEDSTAT WORKSHOP, 14/03/2013

Youth TRANSITIOns in the mediterranean «Youth bulge »: insufficient labour demand A fast educational expansion… … But skills mismatch (?) A high percentage (40% ?) of the youth population not in employment, education or training (NEET) Unemployment: mainly search for a first job (Egypt?) or also due to unstable position between temporary jobs? A wide gender gap External migration of graduates Sources: ETF, ILO, « After the spring », Femise report MEDSTAT WORKSHOP, 14/03/2013

TRANSITION MEASURES Education and training : VET, apprenticeship, second chances schools, training or retraining of unemployed Active Labour Market policies : mutual obligation requirements, job placement services, benefit administration, and labour market programmes (see below) Intermediation: career guidance, counselling, PES, private agencies Employment: subsidized jobs, public works, promotion of self employment or micro enterprises creation Integrated measures: a combination of the previous Lack of evaluation and/or impact studies? Exchange of good practices? Sources: UN-ESCWA, ETF, « After the spring » MEDSTAT WORKSHOP, 14/03/2013

STEP 2: Existing Surveys Labour Force surveys or Living conditions surveys Information already available (see responses to the questionnaire) Cohort perspective Regional Comparability? MEDSTAT WORKSHOP, 14/03/2013

EXISTING SURVEYS : Additional information End of studies: proxy or exact date Employment history Education: track, field of studies Subjective questions, expectations Social origin, networks Module or set of questions? Periodicity? Comparability? MEDSTAT WORKSHOP, 14/03/2013

Step 3 : sources of information; + and - Existing surveys (+ad hoc modules) + Large samples + Easier to implement + Cohort perspective + Comparison between young people and adults - No employment history - Limited additional information +- Comparability? MEDSTAT WORKSHOP, 14/03/2013

Step 3 : sources of information; + and - ILO SWTS surveys + Labour Force History + Comparability + Cluster Analysis + Individual perspective + Information about self-employment and enterprise creation + Information about mixed situations (learning and working) + Quality of jobs + Labour demand side - Limited information outside Education and Employment situation MEDSTAT WORKSHOP, 14/03/2013

Step 3 : sources of information; + and - OCEMO (future) surveys + Education and training, including some soft skills + Opinions and expectations (related to the young person’s experience) + Information about self-employment and enterprise creation + Information about Household, dwelling, living conditions + Comparability + Cluster analysis (pathways, individuals) + Quality of present job - No employment history MEDSTAT WORKSHOP, 14/03/2013

STEP 3 : Other SOURCES School/Education leavers surveys (targeting VET or HE graduates): + detailed information about subgroups, often longitudinal perspective - very difficult to compare across countries, unless they are designed to allow it Administrative records from Employment agencies: + demand for skills from employers + supply of skills from job seekers - incomplete coverage: industries, geographic - lack of incentive to register - extensive informal employment - extensive personal network for job search MEDSTAT WORKSHOP, 14/03/2013

STEP 4 : relevant INDICATORS NEET: European example (cohort perspective) MEDSTAT WORKSHOP, 14/03/2013

STEP 4 : RELEVANT INDICATORS Depend on the objectives Possible candidate : transition status (ILO: objective; Ocemo: subjective) Beginning and end of the transition process are difficult to define at the individual level Cohort indicators, even using proxy variables, may be relevant Other: Decent work, Quality of jobs, underemployment/unemployment (various definitions) MEDSTAT WORKSHOP, 14/03/2013

STEP 4 : Relevant Indicators Subpopulations: Educational level Gender Geography: urban/rural, infra-national regions LM experience length : new entrants / more experienced workers Social origin Employment by industry, size of local units Groups of individuals from cluster analyses MEDSTAT WORKSHOP, 14/03/2013

STEP 4 : RELEVANT INDICATORS Context: Child (0-14) & Youth (15-29) population Ratio young/total population Education and Training: Early leavers from Ed. & Training Low achievers (Reading, Math, Science – PISA) Primary, Secondary and Tertiary attainment Young having completed at least upper secondary Employment & Entrepreneurship: Youth unemployment rates (current, long-term) Youth unemployment ratio (share in total population) Self-employed youth Youth with temporary contract (share in 20-29)