California Housing Market Update

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Presentation transcript:

California Housing Market Update Monthly Sales and Price Statistics February 2018

Sales Had a Strong Bounce Back in February California, Feb. 2018 Sales: 422,910 Units, +1.1% YTD, +5.4% YTY Feb-17: 401,060 Feb-18: 422,910 Peak:624,957 units in 2005 Valley:189,345 units in 1982 2012 annual sales up 4.3% from 2011 2011 annual sales up 1.4% from 2010 2010 annual sales down 12.3% from 2009 2009 annual sales up 24.5% from 2008 2008 annual sales up 30.4% from 2007 2007 annual sales down 33.4% from 2006 2006 annual sales down 23.8% from 2005 2005 annual sales up 0.8% from 2004 2004 annual sales up 3.8% from 2003 2003 annual sales up 7.6% from 2002 2002 annual sales up 14.1% from 2001 2001 annual sales down 4.7% from 2000 YTD 2000 annual sales up 1.4 from 1999 1999 sales up 7.3% over 1998 10/93: 41.0 Consumer Confidence 01/00: 148.6 03/03: 63.0 5/07: 128.4 2/09: 23.9 SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized

California Home Sales Temporarily Reversing the Downward Trend SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized 3

Bay Area Sales Surged in February SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized 4

Southern California Home Sales Continued to Decline YoY % chg. SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized 5

Central Valley Sales Climbed Further YoY % chg. SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized 6

More Higher-Priced Homes Sold this Year than Last Year SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Sales Declined in Lower Priced Segments February 2018 (Year-to-Year) SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

CA Median Price Continued to Grow at a Fast Pace California, February 2018: $522,440, -1.0% MTM, +8.8% YTY Feb-18: $522,440 Feb-17: $480,270 SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Condo Home Prices Increased at the Fastest Pace since April 2014 SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Bay Area: Peak v. Current Price SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Southern California: Peak vs. Current Price SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Condo/Townhome Median Price Hit New Peak SERIES: Median Prices of Existing Condos/Townhomes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

CA Median Price (Existing SFH) SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® 14

Price Per Square Foot Improved from Prior Month and Surged from Last Year February 2018: $265, Up 3.1% MTM, Up 8.6% YTY Feb-18: $265 Feb-17: $244 SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Sales Price -to-List Price Up YTY February 2018: 99.2%, Up 0.5% MTM, Up 0.6% YTY Feb-18: 99.2% Feb-17: 98.6% SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Inventory Continued to Decline from 2017 February 2017: 4.0 Months; February 2018: 3.9 Months Range since 1988: Low: 1.3 months in April 2004 High: 18.8 months in Apr 1991 Long-run average: 6.9 months Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question. SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Supply Had the Smallest Decline since Mid 2015 February 2017: 4.0 Months; February 2018: 3.9 Months Range since 1988: Low: 1.3 months in April 2004 High: 18.8 months in Apr 1991 Long-run average: 6.9 months Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question. SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Inventory Index Highest in Millions SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Housing Supply Improved in Some Price Segments February 2018 SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Inventory Improved in February 4.3 3.5 2.6 Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question. SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Supply Continued to Shrink in All Regions but not as Fast as Before February 2018 SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®