Impact of SIC/SST for multi-decadal climatic trends; Results from coordinated AGCM experiments Fumiaki Ogawa1,2, Yongqi Gao2,3, Noel Keenlyside1,2, Torben.

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Presentation transcript:

Impact of SIC/SST for multi-decadal climatic trends; Results from coordinated AGCM experiments Fumiaki Ogawa1,2, Yongqi Gao2,3, Noel Keenlyside1,2, Torben Koenigk4, Vladimir Semenov5, Lingling Suo2,3, Shuting Yang6, Tao Wang7 1Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Norway. 2Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway. 3Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing research Center, Norway. 4Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Sweden. 5Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Germany. 6Danish Meteorological Institute, Denmark. 7Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, China.

EXP1 – daily SIC & SST as observed NOAA daily data (1982-2013) Six AGCMs 20 member ensembles for each model EXP2 – SIC is same but SST is daily climatology

PAC EURASIA ATL SON DJF G Simulated 2m Temperature trend [K/10yr] ERA-Int 1982-2013 EXP1(MME) 1982-2013 EXP2 (MME) 1982-2013 PAC Similar -Polar warming pattern is due to SIC (EXP1–EXP2=SST impact) SON EURASIA G ATL Shaded for 95% confidence. Consistent among AGCMs -Warming is local & similar ( W disagrees among reanalysis [Lindsay et al. 2015]) DJF

On the wintertime warming in GREENLAND (T2m) ERA-Int 1982-2013 EXP1(MME) 1982-2013 EXP2 (MME) 1982-2013 •GREENLAND warming is due to SIC. •Tropical variability of SST (Ding et al. 2014) is not required. DJF

On the wintertime warming in north-east U.S (T2m) ERA-Int 1982-2013 EXP1(MME) 1982-2013 EXP2 (MME) 1982-2013 •Warming in north-east U.S. is simulated as observed: SIC impact DJF

On the wintertime cooling trend in Siberia (T2m) EXP2 (MME) 1982-2013 ERA-Int 1982-2013 EXP1(MME) 1982-2013 •Siberian cooling is not simulated in EXP1/2

On the wintertime cooling trend in Siberia (T2m) ERA-Int 1982-2013 EXP1(MME) 1982-2013 EXP2 (MME) 1982-2013 Absence of SLP trend; siberian cooling disappears. (McCusker et al. 2016) DJF SLP • Observed Siberian cooling is nothing to do with SST/SIC change. DJF

Correspondence to upward LHF trends [W/m2/10yr] ERA-Int 1982-2013 EXP1(MME) 1982-2013 EXP2 (MME) 1982-2013 DJF T2m •SIC impacts B-K and north-eastern U.S. warmings through LHF. DJF LHF BK •Note: GREENLAND warming is not due to LHF.

Trend of upward net long-wave radiation at the surface ERA-Int 1982-2013 EXP1(MME) 1982-2013 EXP2 (MME) 1982-2013 DJF T2m •SIC impacts warming in B-K regions also through LR. DJF LR BK Main cause of unrealistic cooling is mainly by jump of NOAA-SIC in the region (2005)

SO ND JF Zonal mean Temperature trends ERA-Int EXP1(MME) EXP2 (MME) 1982-2013 EXP1(MME) 1982-2013 EXP2 (MME) 1982-2013 SIC impact is limited in lower troposphere (Screen et al. 2012) SO “Arctic amplification (AA)” •Simulated warming is centered in SIC changing latitudes. ERA-I warming lat. almost coincides to EXP1/2. ND Observed surface warming in JF is local: N-E.U.S., B.K., GREENLAND: reproduced in EXP1/2. AA is less clear above even in reanalysis. Model shows little contribution of SST/SIC. JF

Summary: Impact of SIC/SIC for the observed trends GREENICE COORDINATED experiments have made implications for previous findings: Arctic Amplification: Autumn and early winter: •AA is influenced by SIC, but limited near the surface. Impact of SST is dominant above. (supporting Screen et al. 2012) •SIC seems relevant for spatial distribution of land surface temperature trend. Late winter: AA itself become less obvious. -Surface AA is rather localized: still explained by SIC impact : Tropical SST change (Ding et al. 2014) seems not required. What is mechanism to increase LHF(SHF). It is increased flux of moisture. Large scale circulation? Down ward increase : watervapor increase u contribution or q contribution? SIC somehow causes circulation, then in turn causes surface heat fluxes. If the advenction warms entire lower column through poleward heat transport, then the net upward flux will be nearly 0. does daily data have any lag? ← if the reviewer attack us But will not matter for interannual trend. Atmospheric feedback is SLP trend to make it warmer. Still difficult to understand Z700. but how about other reanalysis? -Warming above is not clear: little contribution by SST/SIC Thermodynamics for the warming trends is need to be addressed more in detail... Siberian cooling in winter: •Seems like internal variablity of atmosphere, nothing to do with SST/SIC. - supporting (McCusker et al. 2016)