& Political Socialization Public Opinion & Political Socialization
Why does it matter to you? Public Opinion Core Questions: Why are we the way we are? Why does it matter to you? In particular, how is public opinion formed and how does it affect policy? Consists of the combined voices of all the people in a society on political issues Polling and survey analysis emerge Measure of all the people’s views As technology and survey analysis techniques advanced, public opinion became understood to be the average of all individual opinions Studies suggest that Americans are poorly informed about government They don’t care much about most public policy issues, but are good at using limited information to figure out which candidates reflect their issues and then vote accordingly Several abolished slavery: MA, NH, VT (through state constitutions).
How Public Opinion Is Measured Poll – set of questions asked of a carefully constructed sampling of a population. Random sample Margin of error (sampling error) While early polls had a much larger margin of error, polls today are much more accurate (though they can still make mistakes – look at 2016 election predictions) NY Times (top) FiveThirtyEight (bottom)
Polls Today Types of Polls and Techniques Polls in campaigns Cluster sampling Approximates a true random sample Random digit dialing Internet polling How does it generate a truly random sample? Polls in campaigns Tracking polls (track voter opinion over time) Exit polls (on election day after people have voted) Push polls (“push” voters toward a certain conclusion) What are the limitations of polls? Margin of error (+/- 3%) Question effects; wording Artificial situations
Political Socialization Political Socialization - The learning of political values and factual assumptions about politics Occurs most readily in childhood and diminishes as people age In adolescence and early adulthood, people form more concrete ideas about politics Masses v. Elites (elite = people who have had access to more resources such as money, education, power. Know more, think differently about politics than masses). Political ideology Ideology is larger concept of politics Genes play a major role in ideology, but not in party affiliation Party identification A sense of belonging or attachment to one or another of the political parties
Political Socialization
Group Differences in the United States AGE There are differences between younger and older Americans Older: hold on to status quo (want to protect way of life, more resistant to change) Younger: tend to embrace progressive view Younger voters often willing to support less typical candidates (Bernie Sanders in 2016) RACE AND ETHNIC GROUPS The U.S. has a very diverse population 2050: Only about half population will consist of non-Hispanic whites. Differences across racial/ethnic groups – often related to economic disparities Sometimes issue-specific: Role of life experiences among groups: discrimination Hispanics: socially conservative; economically liberal African-Americans: overwhelmingly vote Democratic
Group Differences in the United States RELIGION Americans are more religious than citizens of other economically well-off countries. Less developed countries very religious: Saudi Arabia, India, Nigeria Important determinant of voting behavior Catholics: evenly divided among two parties Protestants: moderate and evangelical Moderates lean more toward Republican Party; evangelicals very much so. Jewish: more liberal on most issues – only 21% identify as Republicans. Muslims: identify primarily with the Democratic Party Strong emphasis on caring for the poor Conservative on moral issues
Social Class Income differences in the U.S. are greater than in most of the world and they are continuing to increase. Social class as political divisive: Public opinion has been less defined by class in US than in Europe and class cleavage has declined since the 1940s Today, low income voters are pulled two ways: social and religious issues pull them toward Republicans; economic issues toward the Democrats. Generally, more toward Democrats. High income voters associated with business interests tend to favor the Republican Party; higher income professionals often side with liberals on social issues. Moral, social and foreign policy issues don’t divide rich and poor in the same way as economic issues do, so many wealthy consider themselves ‘liberal’ and many poor consider themselves ‘conservative’
Gender Before 1980s men and women voted alike and held similar views on political issues. Gender gap emerged in 1980s: Women usually vote in greater numbers than men do Women vote more frequently for the Democratic candidate and this advantage continues to strengthen in each recent election
Geographical Differences
Changes in Party Identification Slow decline in party identification. Usually pretty stable; can shift in response to events or leaders. Long-term evolution of party identification does occur: recent history – increase in number of independents Global phenomenon: What has caused this increase in industrialized democracies? Not clear, generally supported explanation.