QUALITY ASSURANCE OF MODELS FAIRMODE WG2 QUALITY ASSURANCE OF MODELS Outcome from the planning meeting 17thNovember 2009 … and where are we now ? Leonor Tarrason 16th September 2010

FAIRMODE is steered by the air quality legislation To provide a permanent European Forum for Air Quality Modellers and Model Users To produce guidance on the use of air quality models (including fitness for purpose) for assessing current and future air quality for the purpose of implementation of the Air Quality Directive and in preparation to the revision of this Directive To study and set-up a system on the quality assurance and the continuous improvements of air quality models To make recommendations for further research and other relevant improvements, such as improvements on emission inventories, meteorology, boundary conditions, temporal and geographic scale

FAIRMODE FAIRMODE Communication EIONET Model Users Other Interested Modelling experts FAIRMODE Invited EEA EC-JRC DG-ENV ETC/ACC COST actions AirBase EU projects FP6, FP7 GMES observations EEA’s data centre AQMEII CLRTAP UNECE/EMEP WG1 Guidance on modelling WG2 Quality assurance Best modelling practices Protocols for QA of models Input to legislation

FAIRMODE ORGANISATION WG1 Guidance Documents and Dissemination Iteration N N + 1 WG2 Competence Building and Benchmarking

FAIRMODE WG2 Its main goal is develop a user friendly system to assess the quality of air quality models used under the implementation of the Directives Protocols for model quality assessment Benchmarking tools Dialogue and exchange WG2 provides input and recommendations to WG1 in order to produce better guidance

Protocol for quality assessment of models WG2 contribution Model/Method documentation Good pratice guidance, for the combination of models and observations (SG1) Protocol for assessment of methods for source allocation (SG2) Input data documentation: Focus on emission/projection compilation at urban scale (SG3) Model validation: Evaluation of appropriate MQI model performance indicators and identification of response indicators Interactions with AQMEII, TFMM, EURODELTA Model benchmarking: Elaboration of a prototype for benchmarking models in urban agglomeration (SG4) Protocol for quality assessment of models WG2 contribution

WG 2 is organised in 4 different groups WG2 – ORGANISATION WG 2 is organised in 4 different groups SG (1) – Models and Measurements- Bruce Denby bde@nilu.no SG( 2) - Source Allocation-John Douros john.douros@aix.meng.auth.gr SG (3) – Emissions and Projections-Julio Lumbreras jlumbreras@etsii.upm.es SG (4) – Benchmarking and Tools - Philippe Thunis philippe.thunis@jrc.it

How do the SGs work together? Benchmarking SG1 Models and Measurements SG2 Source allocation SG3 Emissions WG2 Coordination WG1 Guidance

WG2 – QUESTIONS FOR SUBGROUPS 1) How far are we in the work plan from 2010 ? 2) What are the main priorities for work in 2011 ? 3) What input do we need from the other SGs ? 4) Identify deliverables to other subgroups and WG1 for 2010 and 2011

WG2 – QUESTIONS FOR SUBGROUPS REMINDER OF THE PLANS FOR 2010 WORK PLAN … this is what we agreed to do…

1. Identification of current initiatives 2. Available data and methods WG2 –WORK PLAN FOR 2010 1. Identification of current initiatives 2. Available data and methods 3. Identification of Model Quality Indicators Input to Guidance Documents 4. Preparation of Protocols for QA of models 5. Design of tools for benchmarking QA

Overview of AQD applications & scale in on-going projects Applications for the AQD Local-Hot spot (dx ~ m) Urban/Agglom (dx ~ 1- 5 km) Regional (dx ~ 10 – 50 km) Compliance / Assessment Data Assimilation Fusion Mitigation & Planning Emission scenarios Source Apportionment Public information AQ near real time forecast TRANSPHORM EURODELTA AQMEII COST 732 CITYZEN MEGAPOLI MACC PASODOBLE MEGAPOLI TRANSPHORM EC4MACS EURODELTA CITYZEN PASODOBLE MEGAPOLI TRANSPHORM MACC PASODOBLE MACC COST 602 Chemical Weather FAIRMODE Nov. 19, 2009

WG2 – DELIVERABLES FOR 2010 Protocols for best practice on data assimilation and on source allocation Prototype tool for benchmarking urban scale models Background document on need for emission data and guidance in local/urban scale Workshop on emissions with local authorities/IMPEL Framework proposal Presentation of progress at HarmoConference

WG2 2010 - Main activities – SG1 SG1 Combining monitoring and modelling (I) Collecting information about groups and their methods and applications (data assimilation) Provide an assessment concerning the ‘fitness for purpose’. Identify objectives and indicators. Provide basic recommendations for applications relevant to the directive (forecasting and compliance assessment) Links to Air4EU, MACC, PASODOBLE, COST 602

WG2 2010 - Main activities – SG1 SG1 - Combining monitoring and modelling (II) Evaluation of nesting procedures and capabilities will be carried out by the work in PASODOBLE, links are to be ensured Evaluation of the Representativeness of observations Need to evaluate station evaluation criteria Recommendations on position of monitoring stations Needs for new monitoring data

WG2 2010 - Main activities – SG2 SG2 Contribution of natural sources and source allocation Extended review of the guidance from the WG on Implementation Review of experiences from the members states reporting under Art.20 and 21 Protocol for best practice for model uses beyond receptor modelling for Winter sanding Wind-blown dust Sea salt Wild open fires Links to MACC, PASODOBLE ,MEGACITIES And TFMM

WG2 2010 - Main activities – SG3 SG3 on urban emissions and projections (I) Background document on the emission needs at local scale Needs for guidance on emission compilation at urban level Consistency with national inventories Top down vs bottom up approches Use of GIS tools

WG2 2010 - Main activities – SG3 SG3 on urban emissions and projections (II) Urban emission compilation is a key issue at European level Both guidance and relevant exchange fora are needed Workshop with city authorities in 2010 Proposal for a framework for the development of emission inventories at local scale Links to TFEIP/EIONET, GEIA, JRC-EDGAR Funding will be needed!

WG2 2010 - Main activities – SG4 SG 4 Tools for benchmarking of models Development of a prototype tool for benchmarking models used under the AQD directive Focus on urban agglomeration 1x1km2 Open to Lagrangian and Eulerian models, first Prototype flexibility requirements Emission dissagragation to allow local scale models contribution ine emissions : line sources Open source code Allows multiscale applications *regional first Links to AQMEII, TFMM, EURODELTA, MEGACITIES, CITYZEN

WG2 – QUESTIONS FOR SUBGROUPS 1) How far are we in the work plan from 2010 ? 2) What are the main priorities for work in 2011 ? 3) What input do we need from the other SGs ? 4) Identify deliverables to other subgroups and WG1for 2010 and 2011

Thank you for your attention !

WG2 meeting 17th november (OUT) Model/method documentation SG(2) + SG(1) Combination of meaurements and models SG(5) Source allocation Input Data Documentation SG (3) Emission data in urban areas Benchmarking SG (4) Protocols and Tools for model benchmarking Urban Agglomeration Guidance Protocols for best practice WG1