Buy German Arms, Get Foreign Aid Free! Third largest arms exporter in the world Austin Baker Abby Cooner Prof. Vreeland Krogh Honors Seminar

Research Question The Global Arms Trade German Arms Exports Independent Variable Dependent Variable German Arms Exports German Foreign Aid The Global Arms Trade Eclectic Buying Patterns Highly Competitive Buyer’s Market

How does this make sense? Hypothesis If a country imports German arms, they are more likely to receive German foreign aid. How does this make sense? The German arms acquisition process directly influences the distribution of foreign aid.

The Process Foreign Country German Arms Manufacturers Buys Arms Receives Aid Federal Security Council BDSV Export Permits Chancellor Bundestag

Methodology Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) Arms transfers database OECD Data (Vreeland, et. al.) Adapted from “Model 5” Country and year fixed-effects 1989-2009

Effect of German Arms Imports on Bilateral Aid received from Germany Level of German Arms Imports 0.01** (2.36) UNSC Member 0.76** (2.13) Pariah state -1.79 (0.99) War -0.81 (1.37) ln(GDP per capita, real) -0.03 (0.02) Political regime 0.06 (0.86) U.S. Military Assistance (Const. 2011 dollars) 0.09** (2.31) Number of observations 1121 R-squared 0.31

Conclusion Arms market: extremely competitive Small impact, statistically significant Causal logic reinforced by data

Future Work Expand control variables Lagging data Case studies Deeper understanding of German government and German lobbying practices