AGREPS – ACCESS Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System

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Presentation transcript:

AGREPS – ACCESS Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System Michael Naughton, David Smith, Asri Sulaiman Bureau of Meteorology CAWCR Earth System Modelling Program GIFS-TIGGE WG Meeting, June 2013 UK Met Office

AGREPS – ACCESS ensemble prediction system 24-member ensemble designed for medium-range and short-range forecasting Based on UKMO MOGREPS Global ensemble to 10 days Regional ensemble over Australian Region to 3 days Global ETKF for initial condition perts Stochastic model perturbations ACCESS-G 40km (N320) – 25km (N512) AGREPS-G 80km (N144) – 60km (N216) ACCESS-R 12 km AGREPS-R 24 km HI-RES 4km Currently running at 60 km & 37.5 km

AGREPS current status APS0 AGREPS global and Australian regional systems at 80km (N144) & 37.5km L50 based on UM 6.4 ran from Jan 2011 to Mar 2013 (without model perturbations) APS1 AGREPS global system at 60km (N216) L70 based on UM 7.6 has been from start of 2012, running daily since November 2012 (includes SKEB2 model perturbations) APS1 AGREPS has been compared with APS0 version and overseas ensemble systems Operational implementation of AGREPS is planned, timing still dependent on resourcing

AGREPS plans Ensembles will be key element of data assimilation through provision of capability for flow-dependent error covariances; we plan to incorporate Met Office hybrid DA approach into future ACCESS NWP suites Ensembles for high resolution ACCESS systems are also planned

Verification – Spread-skill T850 AGREPS N216 v N144 T850 December 2012

Verification – Spread-skill T850 AGREPS N216 EM cf ACCESS-G N320 T850 April 2013

Verification – Spread-skill c.f. other centres AGREPS N216 ECMWF NCEP JMA T850 August 2012 Southern Hemisphere

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