Predicting human performance from psychological variables Professor Andy Lane School of Sport, Performing Arts and Leisure University of Wolverhampton, November 16 th 2005

Overview This presentation focuses on two aspects:This presentation focuses on two aspects: Relationships between psychological state variables and performance in academic and athletic settings.Relationships between psychological state variables and performance in academic and athletic settings. Strategies to improve enhance performance through developing psychological skillsStrategies to improve enhance performance through developing psychological skills

Tale of the tape 85 papers in peer review journals85 papers in peer review journals Editorial board member on 5 journals – editor for 2Editorial board member on 5 journals – editor for 2 Scientific reviewer for 20 journalsScientific reviewer for 20 journals 5 PhD Completions5 PhD Completions Awards: BASES 1997, 1999, 2000, 2004, 2005, ECSS, 1998Awards: BASES 1997, 1999, 2000, 2004, 2005, ECSS, k in internal and external grants100k in internal and external grants Over 150 conference presentationsOver 150 conference presentations Sport psychology consultant for World Champion boxer, English Institute of Sport, PowerAde.Sport psychology consultant for World Champion boxer, English Institute of Sport, PowerAde.

Performance prediction Sport Academic Boxing, Running, Kickboxing, Tennis, Cycling, Triathlon, Biathlon, Basketball, Tae-kwon-do, Wakeboarding Module performance, Oral examination, Written examination Dissertation, Masters degree Mood and self-efficacy

The real-world laboratory

Predicting Performance

Overview Performance influences emotions and self-efficacyPerformance influences emotions and self-efficacy Emotions and self-efficacy influence performanceEmotions and self-efficacy influence performance Control of emotions is importantControl of emotions is important Developing self-efficacy is importantDeveloping self-efficacy is important Understanding the process how psychological states evolve over time is importantUnderstanding the process how psychological states evolve over time is important Emotional control and self-efficacy wins medals?Emotional control and self-efficacy wins medals? Emotional control and self-efficacy passes courses?Emotional control and self-efficacy passes courses?

Self-report vs other methods Psychophysiology/neurophysiology, Behavioural measuresPsychophysiology/neurophysiology, Behavioural measures How would we really know what we are measuring (e.g., fear or surprise in response to a laboratory stimulus)?How would we really know what we are measuring (e.g., fear or surprise in response to a laboratory stimulus)? Psycho-physiological or behavioural measures of affect would have to be validated against self- report.Psycho-physiological or behavioural measures of affect would have to be validated against self- report. Many psychological constructs are currently only reliably estimated through self-report.Many psychological constructs are currently only reliably estimated through self-report.

Mood

PROFILE OF MOOD STATES Below is a list of words that describe feelings people have. Please read each one carefully. Then circle the answer which best describes HOW YOU FEEL RIGHT NOW. Make sure you answer every question. Not at all A little Moderately Quite a bit Extremely 1. Panicky Lively Confused Furious Worn out Depressed (Terry, Lane, Lane, & Keohane, 1999)

ICEBERG PROFILE

INVERSE ICEBERG PROFILE

Mood and performance Meta-analysis of mood in sport (Beedie, Terry, & Lane, 2000) Vigour is associated with facilitated performanceVigour is associated with facilitated performance Confusion, Fatigue, and Depression are associated with debilitated performance.Confusion, Fatigue, and Depression are associated with debilitated performance. Anger and Tension were associated with facilitated performance in some studies and debilitated performance in others.Anger and Tension were associated with facilitated performance in some studies and debilitated performance in others.

Theory and measurement issues that needed addressing concurrently Theory and measurement issues that needed addressing concurrently

Measurement of mood in sport Terry, Lane, Lane, and Keohane (1999, 2003) developed a 24-item scale that assesses anger, confusion, depression, fatigue, tension and vigour (The Brunel Mood Scale: BRUMS).Terry, Lane, Lane, and Keohane (1999, 2003) developed a 24-item scale that assesses anger, confusion, depression, fatigue, tension and vigour (The Brunel Mood Scale: BRUMS). oFace validity oFactor validity oPredictive and concurrent validity oThe BRUMS is the most comprehensively validated measure of POMS subscales available for sport researchers. –It has also been successfully translated and shown factorial validity for use in Arabic, Hungarian, and Italian athletes.

Development of a theoretical model of mood-performance relationships

Figure 1: A conceptual model for prediction of performance from mood (Lane & Terry, 2000) ReducedVigour Vigour Fatigue Confusion Anger Tension Tension IncreasedFatigue IncreasedConfusion IncreasedTension IncreasedAnger Depression DebilitativeEffects Reduced Facilitative Effects No Depression FacilitativeEffects DebilitativeEffects CurvilinearEffects

Figure 2: Lane and Terry (2000): High anger, confusion, fatigue, and tension and low vigour will be associated with Depressed mood.

Mood state scores by depressed mood: A review (Lane & Terry, 2005)

Theoretical developments Integrate more positive mood states into the Lane and Terry (2000) model.Integrate more positive mood states into the Lane and Terry (2000) model. Explore relationships between mood and emotional intelligence (Lane, Devonport, & Galloway, 2005; Lane, Soos et al., 2005).Explore relationships between mood and emotional intelligence (Lane, Devonport, & Galloway, 2005; Lane, Soos et al., 2005). –Emotional intelligence, mood-regulation, and mood states are the focus of current applied research projects.

Figure 5: A Revised Lane & Terry (2000) model (Lane, in press) ReducedVigour Vigour Calmness Anger Tension Tension ReducedCalmness ReducedHappiness IncreasedTension IncreasedAnger Depression DebilitativeEffects Reduced Facilitative Effects No Depression FacilitativeEffects CurvilinearEffects Happiness

Emotional intelligence, Mood states for student athletes (Ciarrochi, Forgas, & Mayer, 2001) EventsOutcomes Competition demands Academic demands Adaptation Emotional intelligence Perceiving emotion, Integrating emotion in thought, Understanding emotion, and Managing emotion Athletic success Academic success Mood states

Mood, emotional intelligence and performance Based on data from 150 student athletes, Lane, Thelwell et al. (2005) found mood states associated with success in sport differ to success in examinations.Based on data from 150 student athletes, Lane, Thelwell et al. (2005) found mood states associated with success in sport differ to success in examinations.

Lane, Thelwell et al continued

Developing emotional intelligence with student athletes Sport and exercise psychologist Learning and performing in academia Learning and performing in sport Explore mood-performance relationships in sport /college Develop self-regulation skills

Mood Responses to World Championship competition: A case study of World Champion professional boxer (Lane, 2003)

Mood scores between best and worst performance

Psychological skills Use of video to develop:Use of video to develop: Imagery scriptsImagery scripts Performance accomplishmentsPerformance accomplishments Use of music for relaxation and activationUse of music for relaxation and activation Concentration training to enhance attentional control – required to switch between roundsConcentration training to enhance attentional control – required to switch between rounds Develop communication skills with coach, particularly between roundsDevelop communication skills with coach, particularly between rounds

Temporal considerations Develop mental game plan for fight 4 weeks beforehand (when within target weight)Develop mental game plan for fight 4 weeks beforehand (when within target weight) What if scenarios for anxiety, fatigue, poor performance.What if scenarios for anxiety, fatigue, poor performance. Develop impression management skills for weigh-in, dealing with media.Develop impression management skills for weigh-in, dealing with media. Develop and practice plan for three hours before the contest.Develop and practice plan for three hours before the contest.

Mood management Summary Identification of potentially debilitating moods is crucialIdentification of potentially debilitating moods is crucial –Encourage athletes to be aware of their moods –Encourage athletes to identify the causes of moods and seek strategies to regulate these moods (see Stevens & Lane, 2001)

Conclusion: A model of the lecturer-practitioner Identification of variables that influence performanceIdentification of variables that influence performance Develop robust measuresDevelop robust measures Test theoretical relationships and form new ones, and re-test.Test theoretical relationships and form new ones, and re-test. Conduct theoretically driven interventionsConduct theoretically driven interventions –Test and modify in the light of results

Thank you….