The “Planetary Boundaries” Concept Climate change Nitrogen cycle Rate of biodiversity loss

Food Systems include a set of ‘Activities’ …

… all of which are conducted by a range of ‘Actors’ ... Input industry Farmers, fishermen Con-summers Waste process, sewage Subsistence farmers Retailers, food service Food industry Traders, processors … all of whom have a range of incentives and motives …

So how to Food System Activities contribute to crossing Planetary Boundaries?

Food Systems Activities also have varied impacts on natural resources We know the current global environmental ‘situation’ Soil 33% degraded Fresh water 20% aquifers overexploited Biodiversity 60% of loss Marine resources 29% over-fished; 61% fully-fished Fossil fuels 30% of all fossil fuel use And 24% of total GHG emissions And pollution: chemicals, plastics, litter, …

Updated ‘Planetary Boundaries’ concept and contribution of Agriculture activities Climate change Genetic diversity Biosphere integrity Novel entities Functional diversity ? ? Stratospheric ozone depletion Land-system change Role of agriculture ? Atmospheric aerosol loading Freshwater use Beyond zone of uncertainty (high risk) In zone of uncertainty (increasing risk) Below boundary (safe) Boundary not yet quantified ? Phosphorus Ocean acidification Nitrogen Biogeochemical flows Campbell et al., submitted Steffen et al., 2015

Food System Activities and Planetary Boundaries Example contributions of FSAs to PBs Producing food Climate change CO2, CH4, N2O, albedo N cycle Fertilisers P cycle Fresh water use Irrigation Biodiversity loss Deforestation, soils, fishing. monocultures Atmos. aerosols Deforestation, tillage Chemical pollution Pesticides

Food System Activities and Planetary Boundaries Example contributions of FSAs to PBs Producing food Processing & Packaging food Distributing & Retailing food Consuming food Climate change CO2, CH4, N2O, albedo Factory and materials emissions Transport and cold chain emissions Cooking and washing emissions N cycle Fertilisers Factory effluent transport NOx Waste P cycle Detergents Fresh water use Irrigation Washing, heating, cooling Cleaning food Cooking, cleaning Biodiversity loss Deforestation, soils, fishing. monocultures Paper/card Metal mining Invasive spp Consumer choices Atmos. aerosols Deforestation, tillage Shipping Smoke from cooking Chemical pollution Pesticides Transport emissions

Assessing Sustainable FNS To what does ‘sustainable’ refer? Assessing Sustainable FNS Sustainable Food System Activities Environmentally sound Socially acceptable Economically/Enterprise viable External factors Enabling policies Is this a ‘Sustainable Food System’? + Producer buy-in Consumer buy-in Healthy Diet Outcomes Calorie and nutrient density Quality Diversity Safe Affordable Acceptable

Looking ahead: Calorie consumption (emerging ‘middle class’: increasing wealth => diet change) The environmental consequences of meeting this demand under current food systems and consumption trends are dire 2040 Costs of triple burden of malnutrition (direct, indirect and lost work days) currently 11% global GDP 2028 kcal/person/day consumption Manage Demand 2018 The global cost of the 425m diabetics alone is $825b/yr; 700m diabetics anticipated 2000 Meet Demand 2000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (indicative; not to scale) Billions of people