Incorporating Climate Change Considerations October 2, 2018 Federal Floodplain Mapping Guideline Series: Incorporating Climate Change Considerations Alexandre Beaulieu Natural Resources Canada

Flood Maps Promote information on flood hazards Enable community preparedness and disaster mitigation planning Empower citizens and property owners Inform emergency management practices General public awareness Land use planning Necessary condition to enable insurance Investments in infrastructure Used in emergency management cycle Floodplain mapping that accurately delineates flood hazards serves as the precondition for flood mitigation activities and is therefore the first step to increasing community resilience and infrastructure protection with regard to flooding. Establishing a national approach to floodplain mapping will facilitate common national best practices and increase the sharing and use of flood hazard information, thereby improving the foundation from which further mitigation efforts can be initiated.   A vision for Canadian flood guidance has been developed in order to enhance community resilience with regard to flood mitigation.

Flood Mapping Framework The Federal Flood Mapping Framework illustrates the flood mapping process beginning with flood hazard identification followed by flood modelling through hydrology and hydraulic engineering using high-resolution elevation data; followed by flood map production and spatial data dissemination and subsequent Flood Risk Assessment. A series of documents is being developed to support this framework: Federal Flood Mapping Guidelines Series and shown here are several documents as they apply to each step of the Flood Mapping Framework.

Guidelines Series Collaborative Interoperable Local Adaptable The Federal Flood Mapping Guidelines Series of documents are being published to inform consistent practices for flood mapping in Canada. Collaborative Develop common principles and guidelines for floodplain mapping. Establish inclusive process to provide consistent and usable body of information. Establish consistent flood hazard information collection and mapping practices across Canada. Recognize provincial / territorial roles and responsibilities for flood mitigation Provide basis for further specification by provinces & territories Inclusive and take regional considerations into account Encourage sharing and dissemination of flood hazard information Serve all floodplain mapping practitioners and stakeholders The Guidelines are not standards – they are recommended common practices and their use is voluntary. Interoperable Local Adaptable Evergreen Accessible Voluntary

Climate Change and Flooding Changes in snowmelt patterns Precipitation/Extreme weather More intense storms Snowmelt (50% of floods from rapid snowmelt) Warmer air can hold more water Changes to snowpack The integration of climate change considerations into flood maps is extremely challenging due to the various ways in which flooding. Climate impacts flooding in various ways: snowmelt, groundwater levels, sea level rise and precipitation or weather extremes. Sea Level Rise Rising temperatures affect evapotranspiration Groundwater levels Storm surge Climate Change effects to flooding processes Figure source: https://newrepublic.com/article/122392/floods-are-getting-worse-and-americas-coasts-are-unprepared 2

Climate Change and Guidelines Federal Flood Mapping Guidelines Series Document Status Federal Flood Mapping Framework Version 1.0 Published Flood Hazard Identification and Priority Setting In Progress Federal Hydrologic and Hydraulic Procedures for Flood Hazard Delineation Nearly Complete Federal Airborne LiDAR Data Acquisition Guideline Case Studies on Climate Change in Floodplain Mapping Final Review Federal Geomatics Guidelines for Flood Mapping Federal Flood Risk Assessment Guidelines Risk-Based Land Use Guide Bibliography of Best Practices and References for Flood Mitigation This is a list of the documents that comprise the Federal Flood Mapping Guidelines Series. Shown in red are the documents that address climate change considerations within the flood mapping process. For example, the Federal Hydrologic and Hydraulic Procedures for Floodplain Delineation contains suggested approaches on how to account for the uncertainty associated to climate change. Future climate patterns are projected to differ significantly from the historical record. Recognition that climate change considerations are required to conduct robust hydrologic and hydraulic analyses. Also, 3 Canadian case studies were performed using various methods of accounting for climate change within flood modelling techniques; these case studies will be published as a separate document within the Federal Flood Mapping Guidelines Series. n addition, the Federal Flood Risk Assessment Guidelines document also takes into account future climate scenarios for flood risk assessment. The development of this document was initiated last spring at the a workshop on Flood Risk Assessment and; As a result of the workshop findings, the document will consider climate risk.

Climate Change Workshop Outcomes: Increased engagement Roadmap for climate change in flood mapping Recommendations Funding to support early adopters Incentives to overcome political and financial barriers Regional climate data and information Consistent but flexible guidelines A workshop on Climate Change and Floodplain Mapping was held in March 2018 in Edmonton, Alberta to consult experts on the integration of climate change conssiderations in flood mapping. Overview: 50+ participants from various levels of government, private sector, professional associations and research organizations Objective to discuss barriers and develop recommendations

Climate Change Case Studies The case studies provide three examples of how climate change considerations were incorporated into the floodplain mapping process: Fraser Basin River, BC City of Surrey, BC Waterford River, NL Does not include specific recommendations. Currently, there is a lack of capacity and scientific understanding around flooding and climate change. This is likely the reason why only 4 provinces take climate change considerations into account when producing Flood Maps: BC, Québec, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. There are no best practices or consistent guidance on how to account for the climate uncertainty within flood mapping models. Case Studies on Climate Change in Floodplain Mapping will be published in fall of 2018 and will form part of the Federal Flood Mapping Guidelines Series. They contain examples of methods from early adopters, not guidance or standards.

Flood Risk Assessment Guideline development process initiated. March 8, 2018 Federal Flood Risk Assessment Workshop (Vaughan, ON). Will consider climate risk.

Next Steps On-going coordination with other work and initiatives across Canada Case Studies on Climate Change in Floodplain Mapping guidelines (Fall, 2018) Webinar to present the case studies to the Technical Working Group (Winter, 2018) Global Water Futures Project (To be completed 2019) Identify priorities and future projects with the FMC Technical Sub-Group on Climate Change and Flooding Various activities are on-going to promote further research into the incorporation of climate change considerations into flood mapping models.

Summary There are scientific, legal, financial, ethical, and other imperatives to include climate change considerations in the flood management process. The Guidelines documents are taking a step in that direction.

Questions?