Model-Based Estimation of River Flows

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Adjustment of Global Gridded Precipitation for Systematic Bias Jennifer Adam Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington.

Advertisements

Development of Bias-Corrected Precipitation Database and Climatology for the Arctic Regions Daqing Yang, Principal Investigator Douglas L. Kane, Co-Investigator.

The changing contribution of snow to the hydrology of the Fraser River Basin – A contribution to CanSISE Project B3 Do-Hyuk ‘DK’ Kang 1, Xiaogang Shi 2,

Development of the Regional Arctic Climate System Model (RACM) --- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington Dec, 2009.

Applications of GRACE data to estimation of the water budget of large U.S. river basins Huilin Gao, Qiuhong Tang, Fengge Su, Dennis P. Lettenmaier Dept.

VIC Model Status Blowing Snow and Lake Algorithms Princeton Meeting December 4, 2006.

The role of spatial and temporal variability of Pan-arctic river discharge and surface hydrologic processes on climate Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department.

Outline Background, climatology & variability Role of snow in the global climate system Indicators of climate change Future projections & implications.

Exploring the Roles of Climate and Land Surface Changes on the Variability of Pan-Arctic River Discharge Jennifer C. Adam 1, Fengge Su 1, Laura C. Bowling.

Understanding Change in the Climate and Hydrology of the Arctic Land Region: Synthesizing the Results of the ARCSS Fresh Water Initiative Projects Eric.

Changes in Freeze-Thaw and Permafrost Dynamics and Their Hydrological Implication over the Russian Arctic Drainage Basin Tingjun Zhang and R. G. Barry.

Progress in hydrological modeling over high latitudes --under Arctic Climate System Study (ACSYS) Dennis P. Lettenmaier and Fengge Su.

Climate change and Lake Chad: a 50-year study from land surface modeling Huilin Gao, Theodore Bohn, Dennis P. Lettenmaier Dept. of Civil and Environmental.

Advances in Macroscale Hydrology Modeling for the Arctic Drainage Basin Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University.

Development of the Regional Arctic Climate System Model (RACM) --- Initial Implementation and Simulation of VIC within CCSM System Department of Civil.

SNOW SEASON FRACTIONAL FLOW 6 Understanding the sensitivity of Eurasian Arctic runoff changes to snow cover-related surface energy flux variations Amanda.

Multi-Model Estimates of Arctic Land Surface Conditions Theodore J. Bohn 1, Andrew G. Slater 2, Dennis P. Lettenmaier 1, and Mark C. Serreze 2 1 Department.

VIC Land surface model overview

Aihui Wang, Kaiyuan Li, and Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington Integration of the VIC model.

Printed by Introduction: The nature of surface-atmosphere interactions are affected by the land surface conditions. Lakes (open water.

Towards development of a Regional Arctic Climate System Model --- Coupling WRF with the Variable Infiltration Capacity land model via a flux coupler Chunmei.

Assessment of CCI Glacier and CCI Land cover data for hydrological modeling of the Arctic ocean drainage basin David Gustafsson, Kristina Isberg, Jörgen.

MSRD FA Continuous overlapping period: Comparison spatial extention: Northern Emisphere 2. METHODS GLOBAL SNOW COVER: COMPARISON OF MODELING.

Arctic terrestrial water storage changes from GRACE satellite estimates and a land surface hydrology model Fengge Su a Douglas E. Alsdorf b, C.K. Shum.

The changing contribution of snow to the hydrology of the Fraser River Basin Do-Hyuk “DK” Kang 1, Xiaogang Shi 2, Huilin Gao 3, and Stephen J. Déry 1 1.

ObservedSimulated: Run 1 Observed Trend, mm/yr/yr Simulated Trend, mm/yr/yr Lena Lena1Lena2 Lena1 Lena2 Application of the VIC Hydrologic Model to Explore.

Long term simulations of global lakes using the Variable Infiltration Capacity model Huilin Gao 1, Theodore Bohn 1, Michelle Vliet 2, Elizabeth Clark 1,

CONCLUDING REMARKS Exploratory analysis for the large Northern Eurasian basins indicate that precipitation changes are most likely causing the observed.

Assessing the Influence of Decadal Climate Variability and Climate Change on Snowpacks in the Pacific Northwest JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group and the.

ABSTRACT Since the 1930's, combined streamflow from the six largest Eurasian rivers discharging to the Arctic Ocean has been increasing. For many of these.

SNOW SEASON FRACTIONAL FLOW 4 Trends in Eurasian Arctic runoff timing and their relationship to snow cover changes Amanda Tan 1, Jennifer C. Adam 2, Dennis.

The Role of Spatial and Temporal Variability of Pan-Arctic River Discharge and Surface Hydrologic Processes on Climate Dennis P. Lettenmaier Jennifer C.

Hydrological Simulations for the pan- Arctic Drainage System Fengge Su 1, Jennifer C. Adam 1, Laura C. Bowling 2, and Dennis P. Lettenmaier 1 1 Department.

Exploring the Contributing Effects of Climate and Land Surface Changes on the Variability of Pan-Arctic River Discharge and Surface Albedo Jennifer C.

Development of the Regional Arctic Climate System Model (RACM) --- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington May, 2010.

Predicting the hydrologic implications of land use change in forested catchments Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

Adjustment of Global Gridded Precipitation for Systematic Bias Jennifer Adam Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington.

LSM Hind Cast for the Terrestrial Arctic Drainage System Theodore J. Bohn 1, Dennis P. Lettenmaier 1, Mark C. Serreze 2, and Andrew G. Slater 2 1 Department.

Towards development of a Regional Arctic Climate System Model ---

Upper Rio Grande R Basin

Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS)

American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting (December 2004)

Understanding the Causes of Streamflow Changes in the Eurasian Arctic

Looking for universality...

Streamflow (simulated) Streamflow (observed)

Model-Based Estimation of River Flows

Streamflow Simulations of the Terrestrial Arctic Regime

Evaluation and Improvement of a Macro-Scale Land Surface Hydrology Model for a Stream Flow Trend Attribution Study in the Northern High Latitudes Jennifer.

Performance of the VIC land surface model in coupled simulations

Civil and Environmental Engineering

Huilin Gao, Theodore Bohn, and Dennis P. Lettenmaier

Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Andrew W. Wood, Ted Bohn, George Thomas

Predicting the hydrologic and water quality implications of climate and land use change in forested catchments Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil.

Arctic CHAMP Freshwater Initiative Conference (June )

Hydrologic ensemble prediction - applications to streamflow and drought Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering And University.

The Role of Spatial and Temporal Variability of Pan-Arctic River Discharge and Surface Hydrologic Processes on Climate Dennis P. Lettenmaier Jennifer C.

Multimodel Ensemble Reconstruction of Drought over the Continental U.S

Modeling of land surface processes in La Plata Basin

Kostas M. Andreadis1, Dennis P. Lettenmaier1

Hydrology and Water Management Applications of GCIP Research

Hydrologic response of Pacific Northwest Rivers to climate change

Effects of Temperature and Precipitation Variability on Snowpack Trends in the Western U.S. JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group and the Department of Civil.

Measurements and models of cold region hydrology (with a focus on hydrology of the pan-arctic region) Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental.

A. Wood, A.F. Hamlet, M. McGuire, S. Babu and Dennis P. Lettenmaier

Andy Wood and Dennis P. Lettenmaier

A Multimodel Drought Nowcast and Forecast Approach for the Continental U.S. Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University.

Evaluation of the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) and its utility in hydrologic prediction in La Plata Basin Dennis P. Lettenmaier and.

UW Hydrologic Forecasting: Yakima R. Discussion

On the Causes of the Shrinking of Lake Chad

Xiaogang Shi Martin Wild Dennis P. Lettenmaier

Presentation transcript:

Model-Based Estimation of River Flows to the Arctic Ocean Dennis P. Lettenmaier Jennifer C. Adam Fengge Su Theodore J. Bohn Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington AGU Spring Meeting Montreal, Canada May, 2004

Outline Background Model Description Calibration Validation Pan-Arctic Discharge Estimate and Trends Multi-Model Project Conclusions

Background The importance of freshwater inflow to the ocean systems . The unique features of arctic land-surface hydrology. The potential effects of climate change on the runoff of northern rivers. The need of appropriate hydrologic models for runoff prediction from Pan-Arctic terrestrial domain.

Modeling Framework Features specific to Cold-Land Processes: Pan-Arctic Domain per ArcticRIMS 100 km by 100 km EASE runs: 1979-1999, 1950-1995 Features specific to Cold-Land Processes: Two-layer energy balance snow model (Storck et al. 1999) Frozen soil/permafrost algorithm (Cherkauer et al. 1999, 2003) Lakes and wetlands model (Bowling et al. 2004) Blowing snow algorithm (Bowling et al. 2004)

2810 cells routed to 643 outlets Contributing Area: 25 million km2 Routing Model 2810 cells routed to 643 outlets Contributing Area: 25 million km2

Model Calibration Eleven Regions were calibrated separately (not including Greenland) Calibration was focused on matching the shape of the monthly hydrograph. Parameter transfer to un-gauged basins was based on the hydro-climatology of the region.

Two Eurasian Basins Lena Yenisei Lena at Kusur Lena at Kusur (Area:2430000.00 km2) Mean monthly hydrograph (1979-1998) Yenisei at Igarka (Area: 2440000.00 km2) Yenisei

Two North American Basins Mackenzie Mean monthly hydrograph (1979-1991) Mackenzie at Arctic Red River (Area: 738000.00 km2) Yukon R NR Stevens Village AK (Area:508417.50 km2) Yukon R NR Stevens Village AK Yukon Observed Simulated

Model Validation Snow Cover Extent via comparison to NOAA-NESDIS weekly snow charts Snow Water Equivalent via comparison to station observations in Eurasia Permafrost active layer depth via comparison to CALM network observations (ongoing) Lake algorithm validation via comparison of lake freeze and thaw dates to observed (ongoing)

Snow Cover Extent Comparison NOAA-NESDIS weekly snow charts VIC

Permafrost Active Layer Depth Snow Water Equivalent SWE (mm) Simulated Station Observations Grid Cell: 55.65°N, 84.84°E Permafrost Active Layer Depth

Recent Results for the 46-Year (1950-1995) Simulations Pan-Arctic Discharge Estimates Trends in Runoff and Precipitation Changes in Snow Cover Extent Changes in Active Layer Depth (TBD)

Freshwater Discharge to Arctic Ocean/Hudson Bay Varies between 6950 and 7900 km3/year between 1960 and 1995 Discharge Trend = 7.3 km3/year2 Precipitation Trend = 8.7 km3/year2

Individual Basins Lena (at Kusur): 2,430,000 km2 Comparisons of trends for observed and simulated streamflow for major basins suggest that simulated trends are not believable: more work is needed for temporally homogenous precipitation forcings

Changes in Snow Cover Extent Change in number of snow days per year between the 1950’s and the 1990’s. Increasing # of Days Decreasing # of Days

Multi-Model Project Collaborative project between the University of Washington and the University of Colorado (Mark Serreze, PI). Objective is to get best possible time-series of pan-arctic states and fluxes using ensemble average. Ensemble consists of five models: VIC, CLM, ECMWF, NOAH, and CHASM All five models were included in the PILPS 2e experiment.

Forcing Data (NetCDF, ALMA) VIC CLM ECMWF NOAH CHASM Translate (VIC format) Translate (CLM format) Translate (ECMWF fmt) Translate (NOAH format) Translate (CHASM fmt) Translate Results (NetCDF, ALMA) Compare CU UW

SWE, 1981 Thaw Depth, 1981

Evaporation, 1981 Total Runoff, 1981

Conclusions The simulated results for the Arctic’s five largest basins show good agreement with observed values of discharge, SWE and snow cover extent (given the variability in each 10,000 km2 grid cell). The simulated discharge of freshwater to the Arctic Ocean varies between 0.20 and 0.25 million m3/s (6950 and 7900 km3/year) between 1960 and 1995. The inferred trend in discharge to the Arctic Ocean is 7.3 km3/year2, although comparisons of observed and simulated streamflow trends for the major basins suggest that this estimate may be incorrect. For the multi-model project, the different LSMs agree in general output behavior, but some individual variables, notably evaporation and runoff, exhibit significant variation.